[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110890-en":3,"doc-seo-110890-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110890,13056703019662,"Evangeline","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/be000253a8e92610077?_k=1778726343310543188",8,"Research & Report","Uganda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2021","Joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis for Uganda assesses the risk of external and overall public debt distress under a baseline and multiple stress tests. The report finds moderate risk, driven by COVID-19 shock fiscal support, temporary deficit widening, and rising public debt. It notes debt paths remain near but below indicative thresholds, while stress tests show breaches tied especially to export shocks. Key vulnerabilities include slower COVID-19 recovery, more climate disasters, spending pressures, incomplete DRMS implementation, delayed investments, later-than-expected oil exports, and shifts toward non-concessional financing.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nUGANDA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nJune 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Catherine Pattillo and Bikas Joshi (IMF)  \n\n| Uganda: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe authorities have responded to the COVID-19 shock with fiscal support measures leading to a temporary widening of the fiscal deficit and an increase in public debt. Given the planned unwinding of crisis measures and the implementation of fiscal consolidation, Uganda’s public debt continues to be sustainable in the medium term. With debt-carrying capacity revised from strong to medium, Uganda has shifted from low to moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks, relative to the DSA prepared for the disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility in May 2020. All external PPG debt and total public debt burden trajectories remain below, albeit closer than in the last DSA to their respective indicative thresholds and benchmarks over the medium term under the baseline scenario. Nevertheless, stress tests highlight breaches of external debt burden thresholds and the public debt benchmark, especially in relation to export shocks. Key risks include a slower-than-expected recovery from COVID-19, an increased frequency ofclimate disasters, higher current spending jeopardizing the consolidation in expenditures, incomplete implementation of the Domestic Revenue Mobilization Strategy (DRMS), slow execution of investment projects, further delays, beyond 2025, in oil exports coming on stream, a shift in the composition of financing towards non-concessional loans, and a potential decline in the capacity and appetite of commercial banks to provide financing.  \n1 Uganda’s Composite Indicator signals a medium debt-carrying capacity based on the October 2020 WEO and CPIA 2019.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external and domestic debt covers debt contracted and guaranteed by the central government, state and local government, social security fund, and central bank (Text Table 1). The Uganda Public Debt Management Framework 2013 gives the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development the mandate to prepare and publish quarterly Debt Statistical Bulletins. The published data covers PPG debt with information on domestic and external debt. In addition, the Bank of Uganda (BoU) provides data on locally issued government debt held by non-residents, which allows a residency-based analysis. However, due to data limitations, debt data does not cover several elements of the general government debt including extra budgetary funds and non-guaranteed debt issued by state-owned enterprise (SOE), although SOEs issue debt only in the domestic market. For the contingent liability stress test, the framework includes the disputed arrears to Tanzania (US$58 million or 0.1 percent of GDP),2 estimates of SOE debt (9.1 percent of GDP) based on a preliminary report by AFRITAC East, the default PPP shock (i.e., 35 percent of PPP stock, implying 1.7 percent of GDP), and the default financial market shock (5 percent of GDP).  \n\n| Text Table 1. Uganda: Coverage of Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt and Parameters for Contingent Liability Shock |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  | Definition of external/domestic debt Residency-based |  |  |\n|  |  | Is there a material difference between the two criteria? Yes |  |  |\n|  | \u003Cbr>Subsectors of the public sector  \u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local g","cbCaikVGPPxnamL7","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaikVGPPxnamL7","pdf",537636,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and overall conclusion\n## COVID-19 impact and revised debt-carrying capacity\n## Baseline trajectories and stress test breaches\n# Public debt coverage and methodology\n## Coverage scope for external and domestic PPG debt\n## Contingent liability stress test parameters\n## Notes on disputed arrears and exclusions","[{\"question\":\"What overall risk rating does the analysis provide for Uganda’s debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both external debt distress and overall public debt distress as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"How has COVID-19 affected Uganda’s public debt outlook in the report?\",\"answer\":\"COVID-19 fiscal support widened the deficit temporarily and increased public debt, with planned unwinding and fiscal consolidation supporting medium-term sustainability.\"},{\"question\":\"Why do the stress tests indicate higher vulnerability than the baseline?\",\"answer\":\"Stress tests highlight breaches of external debt burden thresholds and the public debt benchmark, especially under export shocks.\"}]",1784487569,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"uganda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/uganda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2021/110890/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What overall risk rating does the analysis provide for Uganda’s debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis rates both external debt distress and overall public debt distress as moderate.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How has COVID-19 affected Uganda’s public debt outlook in the report?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"COVID-19 fiscal support widened the deficit temporarily and increased public debt, with planned unwinding and fiscal consolidation supporting medium-term sustainability.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why do the stress tests indicate higher vulnerability than the baseline?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Stress tests highlight breaches of external debt burden thresholds and the public debt benchmark, especially under export 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