[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110695-en":3,"doc-seo-110695-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110695,1374391975076,"Riley","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253ca4ec9f6853?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1783305029341752051",8,"Research & Report","UGANDA - JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS - Moderate Risk Assessment","Uganda’s joint Bank-Fund debt sustainability analysis evaluates the risk of external and overall public debt distress under a baseline scenario after the COVID-19 shock. Fiscal support temporarily widened the deficit and increased public debt, but planned crisis unwinding and fiscal consolidation support medium-term sustainability. External PPG debt and total public debt remain below indicative thresholds, while stress tests show threshold breaches, especially under export shocks. Key vulnerabilities include slower COVID-19 recovery, environmental shocks, tighter global financial conditions, reform delays, delayed oil exports, and a shift toward nonconcessional loans.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Marcello Estevão (IDA) Catherine Pattillo and Bikas Joshi (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| UGANDA : JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate 1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe authorities have responded to the COVID-19 shock with fiscal support measures leading to a temporary widening of the fiscal deficit and an increase in public debt. Given the planned unwinding of crisis measures and implementation of fiscal consolidation, Uganda’s public debt continues to be sustainable in the medium term. In line with the previous DSA prepared in June 2021, Uganda has a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. All external PPG debt and total public debt burden trajectories remain below their respective indicative thresholds and benchmarks over the medium term under the baseline scenario. Nevertheless, stress tests highlight breaches of external debt burden thresholds and the public debt benchmark, especially in relation to export shocks. Specifically, given that a median shock could lead to a breach for the external debt service indicators, Uganda has limited space to absorb shocks. Key risks include a slower recovery from Covid-19, environmental shocks, tighter global financial conditions, delayed reform implementation, further delays in oil exports, and a shift to nonconcessional loans. Going forward, Uganda’s fundamental development challenge is to replace a growth model based on debt-financed public spending that has emphasized infrastructure, with one where the private sector leads economic growth, supported by the state through investments in human capital and targeted regulations to promote green and inclusive growth that reduces inequality and ensures sustainability. The prospects for this shift are positive, but will rely on effective implementation of the ECF-  \nsupported program to maintain macroeconomic stability, scaled-up investments in human capital, better support to the vulnerable, farmers and MSMEs, and more effective use of public resources to maximize returns on investments.  \n1. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external and domestic debt covers debt contracted and guaranteed by the central government, state and local government, social security fund, and central bank (Text Table 1) . Uganda’s Public Debt Management Framework (2018) gives the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development the mandate to prepare and publish quarterly Debt Statistical Bulletins. The published data covers PPG debt with information on domestic and external debt. In addition, the Bank of Uganda (BoU) provides data on locally issued government debt held by nonresidents, which allows a residency-based analysis. However, due to data limitations, debt data does not cover several elements of the general government debt including extra budgetary funds and nonguaranteed debt issued by state-owned enterprise (SOE), although SOEs issue debt only in the domestic market. Finally, the contingent liability stress test includes the disputed arrears to Tanzania (US$58 million or 0.1 percent of GDP),2 estimates of non-guaranteed SOE debt (9 .1 percent of GDP) based on a preliminary report by AFRITAC East, the default PPP shock (i.e. , 35 percent of PPP stock, implying 1.7 percent of GDP), and the default financial market shock (5 percent of GDP) .  \n| Definition of external/domestic debt | Residency-based |\n| --- | --- |\n| Is there a material difference between the two criteria? | Yes |\n\nSubsectors of the public sector    \nCentral government  \nState and local government  \nOther elements in the general government  \no/w: Social sec","cbCailMzTzQupH6q","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCailMzTzQupH6q","pdf",794660,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Risk Ratings and Judgment\n## COVID-19 Impact and Medium-Term Sustainability\n## Stress Tests and Breach Drivers\n# Debt Coverage and Methodology\n## Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt Scope\n## Contingent Liability Stress Testing\n# Public Debt Evolution\n## Debt-to-GDP Trends and Drivers\n# Composition of External Debt\n## Concessional and Semiconcessional Components","[{\"question\":\"What is Uganda’s overall risk of debt distress according to the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is rated Moderate, consistent with the previous June 2021 DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the baseline scenario still indicate sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline, external PPG debt and total public debt burdens remain below their respective indicative thresholds and benchmarks over the medium term.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors drive the main vulnerabilities highlighted by stress tests?\",\"answer\":\"Stress tests point to breaches mainly under export shocks, with key risks including slower COVID-19 recovery, environmental shocks, tighter global financial conditions, delayed reforms, delays in oil exports, and increased reliance on nonconcessional loans.\"}]",1784486640,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"uganda-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/uganda-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment/110695/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Uganda’s overall risk of debt distress according to the analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The overall risk of debt distress is rated Moderate, consistent with the previous June 2021 DSA.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the baseline scenario still indicate sustainability?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Under the baseline, external PPG debt and total public debt burdens remain below their respective indicative thresholds and benchmarks over the medium term.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which factors drive the main vulnerabilities highlighted by stress tests?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Stress tests point to breaches mainly under export shocks, with key risks including slower COVID-19 recovery, environmental shocks, tighter global financial conditions, delayed reforms, delays in oil exports, and increased reliance on nonconcessional 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