[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111778-en":3,"doc-seo-111778-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111778,2336464648746,"Skyler","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","UGANDA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS - External Debt Distress Risk Moderate","The analysis concludes that Uganda faces moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, supported by baseline projections where external PPG debt and total public debt remain below indicative thresholds. Despite a rebound from pandemic, Ukraine, and Middle East shocks, the outlook is vulnerable to downside risks and a complex external financing environment. Stress tests show potential breaches for external debt burden thresholds and the public debt benchmark, driven by median shocks and limited buffers. Key risks include slower growth, environmental shocks, tight global financing, delayed reforms, oil export delays, donor and tourism spillovers, and contingent liabilities.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) and Catherine Pattillo and, Jay Peiris (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| UGANDA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n| 1 Uganda’s Composite Indicator, which is estimated at 2 .93, signals a medium debt-carrying capacity based on the April 2024 WEO and CPIA 2023. |  |\n\nThe economy has rebounded from external shocks induced by the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and conflicts in the Middle East, although downside risks, related to a complicated external financing landscape, remain. Given the ongoing fiscal consolidation, Uganda’s public debt continues to be sustainable in the medium term. In line with the previous DSA prepared in June 2023, Uganda has a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress. All external PPG debt and total public debt burden trajectories remain below their respective indicative thresholds and benchmarks over the medium term under the baseline scenario. However, stress tests highlight breaches of external debt burden thresholds and the public debt benchmark. Specifically, given that a median shock could lead to a breach for the external and total debt service indicators, Uganda has limited space to absorb shocks. Key risks include slower growth, environmental shocks, continued prevalence of tight global financial conditions, delayed reform implementation, delays in oil exports, possible spillovers to trade stemming from the conflict in the Middle East , and repercussions on donor financing, FDI, and tourism deriving from the parliamentary approval of the ‘Anti-Homosexuality Act’ (AHA) in May of 2023. Going forward, Uganda’s fundamental development challenge is to replace a growth model based on debt-financed public spending that has emphasized infrastructure, with one where the private sector leads economic growth, supported by the state through investments in human capital and targeted regulations to promote green and  \ninclusive growth that reduces inequality and ensures sustainability. Such a shift requires maintaining macroeconomic stability, implementing structural reforms to improve governance and the business environment, mobilizing domestic revenues, scaling-up investments in human capital, better supporting the vulnerable, farmers and MSMEs, and using public resources more effectively to maximize returns on investment  \n1. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external and domestic debt covers debt contracted and guaranteed by the central government, state and local government, social security fund, and central bank (Text Table 1) . Uganda’s Public Debt and Other Financial Liabilities Management Framework (2023) gives the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development the mandate to prepare and publish quarterly Debt Statistical Bulletins. The published data covers PPG debt with information on a residency-based definition of domestic and external debt. In addition, the Bank of Uganda (BoU) provides data on locally issued government debt held by non-residents, which allows a residencybased analysis. Due to data limitations, debt data does not cover extra budgetary units (EBUs) and debt issued by state-owned enterprise (SOE) .1 The contingent liability stress test includes the disputed arrears to Tanzania (US$58 million or 0.1 percent of GDP),2 the default PPP shock (i.e. , 35 percent of PPP stock, implying 1.7 percent of GDP), and the default financial market shock (5 percent of GDP) .3  \n1 EBUs are funds that are not included in the national budget appropriated by parliament (such as pension schemes and revenues or user fees collected by government ","cbCairQgB7YG4xTT","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCairQgB7YG4xTT","pdf",928805,1,25,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment\n## External and Overall Debt Distress Risk\n## Shock Absorption and Judgment\n# Baseline Outlook and Key Drivers\n## Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Sustainability\n## Key Macroeconomic and Financing Risks\n# Stress Tests and Breach Scenarios\n## External Debt Burden Thresholds\n## Public Debt Benchmarks\n# Policy and Development Priorities\n## Shifting Away From Debt-Financed Spending\n## Structural Reforms and Investment Priorities","[{\"question\":\"What risk level does the analysis assign to Uganda’s external and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"It assigns a moderate risk of external debt distress and a moderate overall risk of debt distress. The baseline scenario keeps relevant debt trajectories below indicative thresholds and benchmarks.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report still warn about vulnerabilities despite moderate risk under the baseline?\",\"answer\":\"Downside risks persist due to a complicated external financing landscape and ongoing fiscal consolidation. Stress tests indicate limited space to absorb shocks and highlight possible threshold breaches.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors are highlighted as key risks to Uganda’s debt outlook going forward?\",\"answer\":\"The report cites slower growth, environmental shocks, continued tight global financial conditions, delayed reform implementation, delays in oil exports, and spillovers affecting donor financing, FDI, and tourism, alongside contingent liabilities.\"}]",1784491675,63,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"uganda-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-debt-distress-risk-moderate","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/uganda-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-debt-distress-risk-moderate/111778/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What risk level does the analysis assign to Uganda’s external and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"It assigns a moderate risk of external debt distress and a moderate overall risk of debt distress. The baseline scenario keeps relevant debt trajectories below indicative thresholds and benchmarks.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why does the report still warn about vulnerabilities despite moderate risk under the baseline?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Downside risks persist due to a complicated external financing landscape and ongoing fiscal consolidation. Stress tests indicate limited space to absorb shocks and highlight possible threshold breaches.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which factors are highlighted as key risks to Uganda’s debt outlook going forward?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The report cites slower growth, environmental shocks, continued tight global financial conditions, delayed reform implementation, delays in oil exports, and spillovers affecting donor financing, FDI, and tourism, alongside contingent liabilities.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]