[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110303-en":3,"doc-seo-110303-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110303,4810365810221,"Aurora","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Tuvalu - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis","Joint IMF and World Bank debt sustainability analysis for Tuvalu evaluates the risk of external and overall debt distress and tests how debt dynamics respond to baseline projections and stress scenarios. The report finds Tuvalu remains at a high risk of debt distress, driven by vulnerabilities to natural disasters and climate change, persistent fiscal deficits under current policies, elevated spending, and reliance on volatile fishing revenues and grants. It also discusses debt coverage definitions, reporting and transparency progress, and contingent-liabilities assumptions.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Nada Choueiri (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .1  \n\n| TUVALU: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes. The projection horizon was extended to 20 years to capture the impact of natural disastersand climate change on debt dynamics. |\n\nTuvalu remains at a high risk of debt distress, unchanged from the 2021 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) . Consistent with the previous DSA, judgment was applied to extend the projection horizon to 20 years as opposed to the standard 10 years. This is to adequately capture Tuvalu’s vulnerability to natural disasters and the effects of climate change on debt dynamics. While the government’s fiscal position remained favorable in 2022, under current policies Tuvalu is projected to face persistent fiscal deficits going forward and high levels of debt relative to the 2021 DSA. The mechanical external and overall risk rating is moderate based on the first 11 years of projections since none of the debt burden indicators breach their thresholds2 under the baseline, and the Present Value (PV) of external and public debt-to-GDP ratio breach their thresholds under the stress tests. However, these ratios are projected to breach indicative thresholds under the baseline scenario in the long run triggering a final external and overall high risk of debt distress. Despite upward trending debt burden indicators, Tuvalu’s debt is assessed as sustainable. This assessment assumes a continued access to external budget support on concessional terms from the development partners, low  \n1 This DSA has been prepared jointly by the IMF and World Bank, following the Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries (2018) .  \n2 Tuvalu’s Composite Indicator (CI) index indicates that the country’s debt-carrying capacity remains weak (2 .58) based on the IMF’s April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2021 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \ndebt service ratios throughout the projection horizon, and limited cash buffers in the Consolidated Investment Fund (CIF) to finance deficits. Risks to debt sustainability remain high due to elevated current spending, high reliance on volatile fishing revenues and grants, and risks of natural disasters. This underscores the importance of reining in fiscal deficits, improving public financial management and implementing structural reforms to ensure sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth, also ensuring good cooperation with donors and securing grants needed to fulfill the country’s large development needs and climate adaptation efforts.  \n1. Tuvalu’s liabilities covered in this Debt Sustainability Analysis comprise concessional and commercial debt of the central government (Text Table 1) . There is no sub-national government structure in Tuvalu, no central bank and no domestic debt is issued by the government. Public debt bulletins are currently not publishing SOE debt that is implicitly guaranteed by the government. This debt, in the form of lines from credit extended to Tuvalu’s non-financial SOEs by the National Bank of Tuvalu (NBT), stood at 3.5 percent of GDP in 2021.3 While SOE loans do not carry an explicit government guarantee, the authorities may be asked to step in and cover these obligations if an SOE were unable to fulfill it, given that the corporations are wholly owned by the government. Thus, this debt is included in the baseline definition of public debt. The definition of external and domestic debt is based on residency. Bilateral donors provide only grant assistance, while multilateral development institutions ","cbCaic4NW4mjNOhX","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaic4NW4mjNOhX","pdf",907960,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Tuvalu: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis\n## Debt distress risk ratings and judgment on projection horizon\n## Debt coverage, public debt definition, and reporting transparency\n## Contingent liabilities stress test and calibration rationale","[{\"question\":\"What is Tuvalu’s risk rating for external debt distress and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress are rated High.\"},{\"question\":\"Why was the projection horizon extended to 20 years?\",\"answer\":\"Judgment extended the horizon from the standard 10 years to 20 years to better capture the impact of natural disasters and climate change on debt dynamics.\"},{\"question\":\"How do the debt burden indicators behave under baseline and stress tests?\",\"answer\":\"While none of the debt burden indicators breach thresholds in the first 11 years under the baseline, key ratios breach indicative thresholds over time in the long run and under stress tests, consistent with a sustained high risk assessment.\"}]",1784484813,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"tuvalu-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/tuvalu-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis/110303/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is Tuvalu’s risk rating for external debt distress and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress are rated High.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why was the projection horizon extended to 20 years?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Judgment extended the horizon from the standard 10 years to 20 years to better capture the impact of natural disasters and climate change on debt dynamics.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"How do the debt burden indicators behave under baseline and stress tests?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"While none of the debt burden indicators breach thresholds in the first 11 years under the baseline, key ratios breach indicative thresholds over time in the long run and under stress tests, consistent with a sustained high risk 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