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Höjer¹,Karl-Henrik Dreborg¹,3,Tomas Ekvall²,Göran Finnveden¹,3  \n¹Environmental strategies research -fms,Department of Urban studies,RoyalInstitute of Technology,Stockholm  \n²Department of Energy and Environment,Chalmers University of Technology,Gothenburg.  \n3 Swedish Defence Research Agency(FOI),Stockholm  \nVersion 1.1,November 2005  \nEnvironmental strategies research-fmsDepartment of Urban studiesRoyal Institute of Technology10044 Stockholmwww.infra.kth.se/fms  \n## Titel:\n\nTowards a user's guide to scenarios-a report on scenario types and scenario techniques  \nAuthors:Lena Börjeson,Mattias Höjer,Karl-Henrik Dreborg,Tomas Ekvall,Göran Finnveden  \nISSN 1652-5442  \nTRITA-INFRA-FMS 2005:3,version 1.0 October 2005  \nPrinted in Sweden by US AB,Stockholm,2005  \n## Preface\n\nThis report has been developed within the project MEMIV(CommonTechniques for Environmental Systems Analysis Tools)funded by MISTRA(the Foundation for Environmental Strategic Research).Previous versions ofthe report have been discussed during several meetings within the researchteam,seminars and lectures.The authors are grateful to all those who havecontributed.A shorter version of the report will be published in Futuresduring 2006.  \nSummary  \nFutures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches.The aimof this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposesscenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful forfurthering these purposes.We present a scenario typology with an aim tobetter suit the context in which the scenarios are used.The scenario typologyis combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques,i.e.practicalmethods and procedures for scenario development.Finally,we look at theusefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenariotechniques.  \nAs a start,we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies.The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user maywant to pose about the future.The resolution is then increased by letting eachcategory contain two different scenario types.These are distinguished bydifferent angles of approach of the questions defining the categories.The firstquestion,What will happen?,is responded to by Predictive scenarios.In fact,the response to a question like this will always be conditional,e.g.of a stableand peaceful world,or by a certain continuous development of some kind.Wehave utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types,Forecasts and What-if scenarios.The second question,What can happen?,isresponded to by Explorative scenarios.The scenarios are thus explorationsof what might happen in the future,regardless of beliefs of what is likely tohappen or opinions of what is desirable.This category is further divided intoexternal and strategic scenarios.The final question,How can a specific target bereached?,is responded to by Normative scenarios.Such studies are explicitlynormative,since they take a target as a starting point.They are often directed  \ntowards how the target could be reached.This category is divided intopreserving and transforming scenarios.  \nIf the user wants to predict the future,forecasts and what-if scenarios are ofinterest.If the user wants to think in terms of several possible futures,perhapsin order to be able to adapt to several different types of outcomes,explorativescenarios may be useful.If the user wants to search for scenarios fulfillingspecific targets,and maybe link this to actions that can be taken towards thevisions,normative scenarios should be the choice.Those three approaches toscenario studies are different.By emphasising the user’s perspective toscenario studies,we have argued that the choice of scenario category is notonly a question of the character of the studied system.Instead,the user'sworld","cbCaihz0g9JuLuDM","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihz0g9JuLuDM","pdf",770055,53,"English","# Preface\n# Summary\n# 1. Introduction","[{\"question\":\"What is the main purpose of the report’s scenario framework?\",\"answer\":\"It aims to clarify for what purposes scenarios are useful and which methods and procedures fit those purposes, using a scenario typology linked to practical scenario development techniques.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the report distinguish predictive, explorative, and normative scenarios?\",\"answer\":\"It classifies scenario studies by the principal user question about the future: What will happen? leads to predictive scenarios, What can happen? leads to explorative scenarios, and How can a specific target be reached? leads to normative scenarios.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors besides the system being studied can influence the choice of scenario approach?\",\"answer\":\"The report argues that the user’s worldview, perceptions, and aims with the study can be even more important than the character of the system when choosing the scenario category.\"}]","Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques | PDF",1791056714,134]