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Predicting CEO Personality and Risk Impact from Speech Transcripts","","How much a CEO’s personality shapes company performance remains difficult to measure because self-reported personality data of top executives is rarely available publicly. This work proposes a text-based personality regressor trained on crowdsourced Myers–Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) assessments. The model achieves high internal and external validity and reaches moderate to strong predictive correlations across three of four personality dimensions. The resulting CEO personality estimates explain financial risk, supporting the upper echelons theory.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/top-down-influence-predicting-ceo-personality-and-risk-impact-from-speech-transcripts/293138/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/top-down-influence-predicting-ceo-personality-and-risk-impact-from-speech-transcripts/293138.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"McQueen","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-30","2026-09-17",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",17,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"Why is it hard to empirically measure how CEO personality affects company performance?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"Management theory suggests a strong influence, but empirical study is limited by the lack of publicly available self-reported personality data for top managers.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"How does the paper predict CEO personality from available information?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"It trains a text-based personality regressor using crowdsourced Myers–Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) assessments derived from speech transcripts.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"What does the study find about the connection between predicted CEO personality and financial risk?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"The predicted CEO personalities have explanatory power for financial risk, providing empirical support for the upper echelons theory.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},293138,1789660259,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":140,"language":141,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":142,"faqs":143,"seo_title":144,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":130,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},5909890329169,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_9964176cb1d06d4a9deccf72a44ae3dc","Top-Down Influence? Predicting CEO Personality and Risk Impact from Speech Transcripts  \nKilian Theil†* , Dirk Hovy‡, Heiner Stuckenschmidt†  \n†Data and Web Science Group, University of Mannheim, Germany ‡MilaNLP, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy  \n{kilian, [heiner}@informatik.uni-mannheim.de](heiner}@informatik.uni-mannheim.de)[ ](heiner}@informatik.uni-mannheim.de)[dirk.hovy@unibocconi.it](dirk.hovy@unibocconi.it)  \narXiv :2201 .07670v1 [ cs .CL] 19 Jan 2022  \nAbstract  \nHow much does a CEO's personality impact the performance of their company? Management theory posits a great influence, but it is difficult to show empirically—there is a lack of publicly available self-reported personality data of top managers. Instead, we propose a text-based personality regressor using crowdsourced Myers–Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) assessments. The ratings have a high internal and external validity and can be predicted with moderate to strong correlations for three out of four dimensions. Providing evidence for the upper echelons theory, we demonstrate that the predicted CEO personalities have explanatory power of financial risk.  \n1 Introduction  \nHow much influence does the personality of a chief executive officer (CEO) have on their company's performance? The personal news and antics of famous CEOs like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, or Bill Gates make headlines, and their personalities sometimes generate a cult-like following. But what measurable effect do they really have? The upper echelons theory (Hambrick and Mason, 1984) suggests that the personalities of CEOs also reflect in the organizational outcomes of their companies. However, presumably due to the lack of labeled data, no supervised models exist to detect CEOs' personalities from text and infer their effect on the financial performance of companies. In this paper, we close this research gap by presenting the first Transformer-based model to predict the impact of CEOs' Myers–Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) personality on financial risk.  \nIdeally, personality is assessed with self-reported questionnaires. However, it is technically infeasible to request executives such as Elon Musk to fill out targeted pen and paper questionnaires. We were  \n*A part of this work was conducted during a research visit to MilaNLP Lab at Bocconi University in Milan.  \ntherefore motivated to explore crowd-sourced data. This approach is supported by past research showing that observer reports are an inexpensive and valid alternative to self-reports (Vazire, 2006), as they usually agree with them (Kim et al., 2019), and are particularly suitable for the assessment of top management personality (Connolly et al., 2007) .  \nThe dominant personality model is the Big 5, which presents personality on a continuum along the dimensions openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism (McCrae and John, 1992) . The available data source we use lacks Big 5 ratings, so as proxy, we explore the MBTI (Briggs-Myers and Myers, 1995), which has been shown to correlate along the main dimensions with the Big 5 (McCrae and Costa, 1989 ; Furnham, 1996 ; Furnham et al., 2003) . This model represents personality via the categories extraversion– introversion, sensing–intuition, thinking–feeling, and judging–perceiving. Addressing methodological criticism of the MBTI (McCrae and Costa, 1989), we  \n• explore an alternative MBTI representation asa vector of continuous values (§3.1);  \n• find a high internal and external validity of this measure (§3.1);  \n• show that it can be predicted from text (§3.3);  \n• and demonstrate that it is predictive of financial risk (§4.3) .  \nOverall, our findings lend empirical support to the upper echelons theory of management.  \n2 Background and Related Work  \nVarious personality measures exist in the literature. This section describes the personality model we explore (MBTI), the de-facto standard model (Big 5), and approaches to predict both representations of personality from text.  \n2.1 MB","cbCaiu45b7iejl4R","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiu45b7iejl4R","pdf",578989,11,"English","# Abstract\n# 1 Introduction\n# 2 Background and Related Work\n## 2.1 MBTI","[{\"question\":\"Why is it hard to empirically measure how CEO personality affects company performance?\",\"answer\":\"Management theory suggests a strong influence, but empirical study is limited by the lack of publicly available self-reported personality data for top managers.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the paper predict CEO personality from available information?\",\"answer\":\"It trains a text-based personality regressor using crowdsourced Myers–Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) assessments derived from speech transcripts.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the study find about the connection between predicted CEO personality and financial risk?\",\"answer\":\"The predicted CEO personalities have explanatory power for financial risk, providing empirical support for the upper echelons theory.\"}]","Top-Down Influence? Predicting CEO Personality and Risk Impact from Speech Transcripts | PDF",28]