[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111570-en":3,"doc-seo-111570-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111570,1099514068035,"Ezra","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Togo - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate risk assessment","The joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses Togo’s external debt distress risk as moderate and overall public debt distress risk as moderate, reflecting constraints on absorbing shocks and elevated short-term debt service needs. Baseline projections and stress tests indicate sustainability, with key debt burden metrics staying below high-risk benchmarks and external indicators remaining under thresholds while improving over the medium term. Fiscal consolidation and revenue mobilization are emphasized to reduce near-term liquidity risks, limit non-deficit debt drivers, and manage contingent liabilities, including those linked to SOEs and financial sector recapitalization.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Annalisa Fedelino and Jacques Miniane (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)1  \n\n| TOGO: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | Yes |\n\nThis Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Togo to be at moderate risk of external debt distress (unchanged from the last DSA) and moderate overall risk of public debt distress (from“high” risk in the last DSA) 2 A recent upgrading of Togo’s assessed debt carrying capacity results in mechanical signals of low risk of external debt distress and low risk of overall debt distress.3 However, judgment is applied to maintain the assessed risk of external debt distress at moderate because Togo faces elevated short-term debt service requirements and there are strong indications that non-residents hold a large share of Togolese public debt denominated in local currency. The risk of overall debt distress is, therefore, also assessed as moderate because the risk of overall debt distress cannot be lower than the risk of external debt distress. Debt is considered sustainable because (i) the present value (PV) of public debt to GDP remains below the high-risk benchmark under the baseline scenario and stress tests throughout the projection period and fiscal consolidation underpins a downward trend; (ii) all external DSA indicators remain below their respective thresholds in the baseline and trend downwards over the medium term; and (iii) Togo’s access to the  \n1 In collaboration with the Togolese authorities.  \n2 December 2024: IMF Country Report No. 2025/005 .  \n3 Togo’s debt-carrying capacity has been upgraded to ‘strong’ from ‘medium’ in the previous DSA because its Composite Indicator has remained above the 3.05 cutoff based on the 2023 CPIA (August 2024) and both the October 2024 and April 2025 WEO data and is currently 3.10. The upgrading raises the external debt thresholds, and the overall public debt indicative benchmark that signals high risk of debt distress.  \nWAEMU market and support from regional debt institutions bolster the country’s financing options and debt management capacity. The authorities should continue fiscal consolidation and revenue mobilization efforts to reduce near-term liquidity risks, contain non-deficit drivers of debt accumulation, and manage contingent liabilities.  \n1. Togo’s public debt includes obligations of the central government and public entities. Debt data cover obligations of the central government, including guaranteed debt, as well as state owned enterprise (SOE) debt (Text Table 1) . Non-guaranteed debt of the Port of Lomé (PAL) is excluded.4 Local authorities cannot contract new debt. A residual stock of historic arrears to domestic suppliers and the domestic debt of previously liquidated public enterprises, equivalent to 0.7 percent of GDP, is included in the debt portfolio, which the authorities have committed to addressing.5 The central bank of the currency union (BCEAO) does not issue debt on behalf of its member countries. The authorities have reported collateralized debt amounting to 1.5 percent of GDP at end-2024 in relation to Lomé airport, which is included in central government debt. The DSA uses a currency-based definition of external and domestic debt, in common with other WAEMU members, because of data issues.6 The one exception is debt owed to the West African Development Bank (BOAD), which is treated as external even if it is denominated in CFAF.7  \n2. Contingent liability stress-tests are applied to assess risks that are not included in the public debt perimeter. The standard bank recapitalization stress test equivalent to 5 percent of ","cbCain0yJ2NwfIIR","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCain0yJ2NwfIIR","pdf",860180,1,25,"English","en",105,"# Risk ratings\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n# Sustainability assessment\n## Baseline scenario and stress tests\n## Fiscal consolidation and revenue mobilization\n# Debt coverage and assumptions\n## Public debt perimeter and exclusions\n## Contingent liabilities stress tests","[{\"question\":\"How does the analysis rate Togo’s external debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"It rates the risk of external debt distress as moderate, unchanged from the previous DSA, even though some signals point to lower risk after an upgrade in debt-carrying capacity.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is judgment applied to keep the external risk at moderate?\",\"answer\":\"Judgment maintains the moderate assessment due to elevated short-term debt service requirements and strong indications that non-residents hold a large share of Togolese public debt denominated in local currency.\"},{\"question\":\"What evidence supports the conclusion that Togo’s debt is sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"Debt is considered sustainable because the PV of public debt to GDP remains below the high-risk benchmark under baseline and stress tests, external DSA indicators stay under thresholds, and fiscal consolidation supports a downward trend.\"}]",1784490725,63,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"togo-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/togo-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment/111570/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How does the analysis rate Togo’s external debt distress risk?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"It rates the risk of external debt distress as moderate, unchanged from the previous DSA, even though some signals point to lower risk after an upgrade in debt-carrying capacity.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why is judgment applied to keep the external risk at moderate?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Judgment maintains the moderate assessment due to elevated short-term debt service requirements and strong indications that non-residents hold a large share of Togolese public debt denominated in local currency.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What evidence supports the conclusion that Togo’s debt is sustainable?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Debt is considered sustainable because the PV of public debt to GDP remains below the high-risk benchmark under baseline and stress tests, external DSA indicators stay under thresholds, and fiscal consolidation supports a downward 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