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Using a state-specific dataset and a regression discontinuity design, the study estimates how failing the HSEE affects the likelihood of leaving high school before completion. Findings show a sharp discontinuity: students who barely fail are more likely to exit than those who barely pass, even with retest opportunities. The effect is substantial for limited-English-proficiency, racial-minority, and low-income students, indicating that higher standards may increase educational inequality.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/to-leave-or-not-to-leave-a-regression-discontinuity-analysis-of-the-impact-of-failing-the-high-school-exit-exam/265570/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/to-leave-or-not-to-leave-a-regression-discontinuity-analysis-of-the-impact-of-failing-the-high-school-exit-exam/265570.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Kyle","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-10","2026-09-14",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",15,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What question does the paper investigate about the high school exit exam?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"It examines whether failing the HSEE increases the chance of leaving high school before completion, and whether effects differ across student groups.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"How does the study identify the causal impact of failing the HSEE?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"It applies a regression discontinuity design around the HSEE cutoff score and compares students who barely pass versus barely fail.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"What does the paper find about dropout outcomes for barely failers?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"Students who barely failed are more likely to exit early than those who barely passed, and the dropout increase is larger for racial-minority and low-income students, and for LEP students on English tests.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},265570,1789397951,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":140,"language":141,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":142,"faqs":143,"seo_title":144,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":130,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},3985741905716,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_994ba38a5ba835b3df7d355c54d3ed8d","To Leave or Not to Leave?  \nA Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the Impact of Failing the High School Exit Exam  \nForthcoming, Economics of Education Review  \nDongshu Ou  \nCentre for Economic Performance  \nLondon School of Economics  \n*I thank New Jersey Department of Education for providing the data used in this paper. I am grateful to Dana Berry, Timothy Peters, Rob Akins and Don White for their help in answering my questions on the data as well as New Jersey’s state educational assessment. I thank Henry Levin, Francisco Rivera-batiz, Randall Reback, and Miguel Urquiola for valuable discussions and comments. For their helpful suggestions, I also thank Linda Bell, Rocky Citro, Alex Eble, Yinghua He, Dong Wook Jeong, Ayako Kondo, Stephan Litschig, Sandra McNally, Guy Michaels, Steve Pischke, Emma Tominey, Jessica Wolff, anonymous referees, and participants at the Eastern Economic Association Annual Conference 2008, the American Education Finance Association Annual Conference 2008, the Campaign for Equity Student Research Conference, Institut d’Economia de Barcelona’s summer school 2008, the Society of Economics and Education Seminar, and the CEP Labour Market Workshop at the London School of Economics. The research is supported by the Campaign for Educational Equity Student Research Grant, the Spencer Research Training Grant, and the Policy and Research Fellowship at Columbia University’s Teachers College. Earlier drafts ofthis paper were titled “The Impact of High School Exit Exam on Student Dropouts: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis.”  \nTo Leave or Not to Leave? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the Impact of Failing the High School Exit Exam  \nAbstract  \nThe high school exit exam (HSEE) is rapidly becoming a standardized assessment procedure for educational accountability in the United States. I use a unique, statespecific dataset to identify the effects of failing the HSEE on the likelihood of dropping out of high school based on a regression discontinuity design. The analysis shows that students who barely failed the exam were more likely to exit than those who barely passed, despite being offered retest opportunities. The discontinuity amounts to a large proportion of the dropout probability of barely failers, particularly for limited-Englishproficiency, racial-minority, and low-income students, suggesting that the potential benefit of raising educational standards might come at the cost of increasing inequalities in the educational system.  \nJEL code: I21, I28, J24  \nKeywords: high school exit exam, student dropout, regression discontinuity  \nDongshu Ou  \nCentre for Economic Performance London School of Economics Houghton Street,  \nLondon WC2A 2AE  \nEmail: [d.ou@lse.ac.uk](d.ou@lse.ac.uk).  \nPhone: +44-20-7955-6646  \nFax: + 44-20-7955-7595  \n1. Introduction  \nMany states in the US require high school students to pass an exit exam as a graduation  \nrequirement. The exit exam is rapidly becoming a standardized assessment procedure for educational accountability. In 2006, high school students in 22 states were required to pass an exit exam to obtain their high school diplomas. Most states are phasing in exit exams and some have implemented more rigorous tests than the more traditional minimum-competency exams, adopting standards-based and end-of-course exams. These High School Exit Exams (HSEE) are more prevalent in states with higher percentages of economically disadvantaged and minority students.  \nHSEEs were introduced to verify that graduating students in high school had mastered the core curriculum (CEP, 2004) . However, it has been suggested that such high-stakes exams can prompt minority and low-achieving students to leave high school early (CEP, 2006b; Garcia & Gopal, 2003; Jacob, 2001; Warren, Jenkins, & Kulick, 2006). Unfortunately, despite the vast and rapid adoption of HSEEs, there is very little causal research on their benefits, including whether exit exams effectively raise students’academic skill","cbCaivEOniuUvJXe","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivEOniuUvJXe","pdf",1044991,41,"English","# Abstract\n# Introduction\n## HSEE policy and rationale\n## Research gap and approach\n## Empirical results and heterogeneity","[{\"question\":\"What question does the paper investigate about the high school exit exam?\",\"answer\":\"It examines whether failing the HSEE increases the chance of leaving high school before completion, and whether effects differ across student groups.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the study identify the causal impact of failing the HSEE?\",\"answer\":\"It applies a regression discontinuity design around the HSEE cutoff score and compares students who barely pass versus barely fail.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the paper find about dropout outcomes for barely failers?\",\"answer\":\"Students who barely failed are more likely to exit early than those who barely passed, and the dropout increase is larger for racial-minority and low-income students, and for LEP students on English tests.\"}]","To Leave or Not to Leave? - A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the Impact of Failing the High School Exit Exam | PDF",103]