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Using first-differences models with North Carolina administrative data, the study estimates that in 2023–2024 each additional day absent corresponds to a measurable decline in math achievement, with further negative peer effects. It also finds the absenteeism penalty weaker in immediate post-COVID years, suggesting contextual changes may alter the impact. Findings emphasize attendance recovery’s partial role in academic recovery.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-relationship-between-student-attendance-and-achievement-pre-and-post-covid/590348/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/the-relationship-between-student-attendance-and-achievement-pre-and-post-covid/590348.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Pentious","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-21","2026-10-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":19},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What is the main research question of this study?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"How much heightened absenteeism after the pandemic may be slowing the pace of K–12 academic recovery, specifically through its relationship with student math achievement.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"How does the study estimate the effect of absenteeism on achievement?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"It applies first-differences models to North Carolina student administrative data, comparing changes over time within cohorts and replicating the approach in pre-pandemic cohorts.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"What do the results show about absenteeism’s impact after COVID-19?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"In 2023–2024, each day absent is associated with a decline in math achievement, and the effect becomes weaker in the immediate post-COVID years, indicating the relationship may vary with contextual factors.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},590348,1792165177,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":19,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":56,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},1374404730887,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_6f874abed73319feea01a86fa6f0fab8","AERA Open  \nJanuary-December 2025, Vol. 11, No. 1 pp. 1–19 DOI: 10. 1177/23328584251371041  \nArticle reuse guidelines: [sagepub.com/journals-permissions](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)[ ](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)© The Author(s) 2025. [https://journals.sagepub.com/home/ero](https://journals.sagepub.com/home/ero)  \nThe Relationship Between Student Attendance and Achievement,  \nPre-and Post-COVID  \nTom Swiderski  \nSarah Crittenden Fuller  \nKevin C. Bastian  \nUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill  \nWe examine the relationship between absenteeism and achievement since the onset of COVID-19. Applying first-differences models to North Carolina administrative data, we estimate that, in 2023–2024, each day absent was associated with a 0.0057 standard deviation (SD) decline in a student’s math achievement, with evidence of additional negative effects from peer absenteeism. As students averaged three more absences in 2023–2024 than their peers in 2018–2019, these estimates imply that achievement may have improved by 0.017–0.025 SDs if absence rates had returned to pre-pandemic norms in 2023– 2024, which would account for 13%–19% of the total needed to achieve a full academic recovery. We additionally find that the negative effect of absenteeism was weaker in immediate post-COVID years, suggesting that the effect of absenteeism on achievement may be affected by changes in contextual factors. Overall, findings highlight the important but partial degree to which attendance recovery may support academic recovery.  \nKeywords: Educational Policy, Policy, Econometric Analysis, Longitudinal Studies, Secondary Data Analysis, Absenteeism, COVID-19, Attendance, Achievement  \nIntroduction  \nThis study aims to determine the extent to which heightened absenteeism post-pandemic may be slowing the pace ofK–12 academic recovery.1 This work is motivated by three existing findings. First, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, student test scores dropped markedly in 2020–2021 and have since recovered only partially (Curriculum Associates, 2023; Dewey et al., 2025; Kuhfeld & Lewis, 2024). Second, post-pandemic absenteeism is a growing concern. Between 2018–2019 and 2021– 2022, the chronic absence rate doubled nationally from 15% to 28%(Dee, 2024a), and has since declined only modestly (Malkus, 2024). Third, absenteeism has historically been shown to have modest but significant adverse effects on a student’sown achievement and may further spill over to harm the achievement of classroom peers (e.g., Aucejo & Romano, 2016; Gershenson et al., 2017; Gottfried & Ansari, 2022).  \nTogether, these findings highlight the important role that attendance recovery may play in academic recovery. However, there is limited work quantifying the impact of post-pandemic absenteeism on student achievement. One report found that rising absenteeism may explain 16% to 27% of the decline in math scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, or NAEP (National Center for Education Statistics [NCES], 2023), based on student  \nself-reports of their absence rate in the month prior to the exam and adjusting for demographic characteristics. Other research at the district level shows that higher post-pandemic chronic absence rates are associated with a district experiencing less academic recovery (Dewey et al., 2025) .  \nWe extend this work by using student-level administrative data from North Carolina to pursue two main goals. First, we estimate the relationship between absenteeism and math achievement using student first-differences models in cohorts of elementary and middle school students observed between 2021–2022 and 2023–2024. We use this result to obtain aback-of-the-envelope estimate of how much better test scores in 2022–2023 or 2023–2024 might have been if absenteeism had returned to pre-pandemic levels in these years. Second, we examine whether the relationship between absences and test scores has changed from pre-to post-pandemic by replicating this model","cbCaifjru000EdIM","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaifjru000EdIM","pdf",1310486,"English","# Introduction\n# Study Goals and Method\n## Administrative Data and Models\n## Pre- vs. Post-COVID Comparison\n# Main Findings\n## Estimated Effects on Math Achievement\n## Evidence on Peer Absenteeism\n# Interpretation for Academic Recovery","[{\"question\":\"What is the main research question of this study?\",\"answer\":\"How much heightened absenteeism after the pandemic may be slowing the pace of K–12 academic recovery, specifically through its relationship with student math achievement.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the study estimate the effect of absenteeism on achievement?\",\"answer\":\"It applies first-differences models to North Carolina student administrative data, comparing changes over time within cohorts and replicating the approach in pre-pandemic cohorts.\"},{\"question\":\"What do the results show about absenteeism’s impact after COVID-19?\",\"answer\":\"In 2023–2024, each day absent is associated with a decline in math achievement, and the effect becomes weaker in the immediate post-COVID years, indicating the relationship may vary with contextual factors.\"}]","The Relationship Between Student Attendance and Achievement, Pre-and Post-COVID | PDF",1792069396,48]