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Findings show higher support in more Republican areas, while partisanship is only one driver of voting behavior. Support is stronger among minority voters and, for private voucher measures, among families already in private schools and those likely dissatisfied with local public districts. Opposition rises among voters in “private school deserts,” highlighting rational, self-interested considerations shaping preferences and policy voting.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-politics-of-private-school-vouchers-evidence-from-three-statewide-referenda/587356/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/the-politics-of-private-school-vouchers-evidence-from-three-statewide-referenda/587356.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"วิน","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-20","2026-10-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":19},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What data does the paper use to study private school voucher ballot measures?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"The paper compiles detailed precinct-level data for school choice ballot measures on the November 2024 ballot in three states, then analyzes how voting patterns vary across places and voter groups.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"How does partisanship affect voting behavior in these referenda?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"Partisanship influences voting behavior, but it is only one factor. The measures perform better in more Republican areas, yet other elements also shape how people vote.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"Who shows greater support for school choice and vouchers in the results?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"The paper finds greater support among minority voters and, for measures specifically about private school vouchers, among families already sending children to private schools and among voters likely dissatisfied with their public school district.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},587356,1792188498,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":19,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":139,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145},2336475104736,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/22000c4c5e0e5b17e70?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1786591360781797222","Program on Education Policy and Governance  \nConference Papers Series  \nThe Politics of Private School Vouchers:  \nEvidence from Three Statewide Referenda  \nParker Baxter, Vladimir Kogan, and Michael T. Hartney 1  \nPEPG 25-03  \nThis paper was presented at the School Choice Tradeoffs and Evidence-Based Policy Making conference held at the Harvard Kennedy School, May 8-9, 2025  \nHarvard Kennedy School  \n79 JFK Street, Taubman 220  \nCambridge, MA 02138  \nTel: 617-495-7976 Fax: 617-496-4428  \n[www.hks.harvard.edu/pepg/](www.hks.harvard.edu/pepg/)  \n1 Baxter: University of Colorado Denver; Kogan: Ohio State University; Hartney: Boston College and Hoover Institution  \nThe Politics of Private School Vouchers: Evidence from Three Statewide Referenda  \nParker Baxter School of Public Affairs University of Colorado Denver [parker. baxter@ucdenver. edu](parker. baxter@ucdenver. edu)  \nVladimir Kogan Department of Political Science Ohio State University [kogan.18@osu. edu](kogan.18@osu. edu)  \nMichael T. Hartney  \nDepartment of Political Science  \nBoston College  \nHoover Institution  \nStanford University  \n[michael. hartney@bc. edu](michael. hartney@bc. edu)  \nApril 18, 2025  \nRunning title: The Politics of Private School Vouchers  \nKey terms: school choice, vouchers, direct democracy, campaign effects, public opinion  \nAbstract  \nWe collect detailed precinct-level data to analyze school choice ballot measures that appeared on the November 2024 ballot in three states. Although we show that these measures performed better in more Republican areas, partisanship was only one factor that influenced voting behavior. We also see greater support for school choice among minority voters and—for measures focusing specifically on private school vouchers—among families already sending their children to private schools and those most likely to be dissatisfied with their public school district. Similarly, we find increased opposition to vouchers (but not school choice generically) among voters located in “private school deserts.”Together, our results emphasize the importance of rational and self-interested considerations in shaping mass preferences and voting behavior on education policy issues and have implications for the ongoing political and policy debates.  \nThroughout the 1990s and the first decade of the 21st Century, education policy largely followed what Rick Hess once described as the “Bush-Obama” consensus (Hess and McShane 2018) . Support for education reform was bipartisan, focused primarily on helping disadvantaged students of color—who were most likely to be trapped in under-performing public schools—and combined a sprinkling of public school choice with a heavy dose of high-stakes accountability.1 Today, nearly every aspect of this consensus has unraveled.  \nNational Democratic elites, under increasing sway of teachers’ unions, appear to have lost all interest in reform. Republicans, on the other hand, have largely abandoned testbased accountability, choosing instead to double down on private school choice on the theory that parents’ subjective preferences — not objective performance indicators — should guide curriculum and instruction. And they have embraced a more universal approach, supporting programs open to all families, not just the most disadvantaged.  \nIn part, this shift has been informed by emerging evidence, including broadly disappointing results from statewide school voucher programs in Indiana, Louisiana, and Ohio (e.g., Abdulkadiro˘glu and Walters 2018, Waddington and Berends 2018) . If parents choose schools or education programs that fail to improve (and may perhaps reduce) student achievement, some conservative advocates have concluded, then test scores must clearly be missing dimensions of educational quality important to families.2 Others have warned that strict accountability rules may discourage high-quality private schools from participating in school choice programs in the first place (e.g., Sude, DeAngelis and W","cbCaivAWK56ghN1p","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivAWK56ghN1p","pdf",391646,27,"English","# Abstract\n# Background and Policy Shift\n# Evidence from Prior Voucher Programs\n# Political Logic of School Choice Realignment\n# 2024 Election Context and Research Question","[{\"question\":\"What data does the paper use to study private school voucher ballot measures?\",\"answer\":\"The paper compiles detailed precinct-level data for school choice ballot measures on the November 2024 ballot in three states, then analyzes how voting patterns vary across places and voter groups.\"},{\"question\":\"How does partisanship affect voting behavior in these referenda?\",\"answer\":\"Partisanship influences voting behavior, but it is only one factor. The measures perform better in more Republican areas, yet other elements also shape how people vote.\"},{\"question\":\"Who shows greater support for school choice and vouchers in the results?\",\"answer\":\"The paper finds greater support among minority voters and, for measures specifically about private school vouchers, among families already sending children to private schools and among voters likely dissatisfied with their public school district.\"}]","The Politics of Private School Vouchers - Evidence from Three Statewide Referenda | PDF",1792061616,68]