[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-seo-324961-105":3,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":81,"doc-detail-324961-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"ok",{"site_id":7,"language":8,"slug":9,"title":10,"keywords":11,"description":12,"schema_data":13,"social_meta":74,"head_meta":76,"extra_data":78,"updated_unix":80},105,"en","the-outlook-no-boom-no-doom","The Outlook: No Boom, No Doom","","Discussion of the U.S. economy’s mixed performance and whether it is headed for a double-dip recession. A panel of 25 experts from the Fourth District Economists’ Roundtable concludes the 1990–91 recession ended last spring and recovery is underway but slow. Forecasts project moderate real GNP growth around 3% through 1992, gradual labor-market improvement, and easing inflation, while noting constraints such as household and firm debt, service-sector restructuring, and less stimulative fiscal and monetary policy.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & Report",3,{"item":32,"name":10,"@type":21,"position":33},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-outlook-no-boom-no-doom/324961/",4,{"url":32,"name":10,"@type":35,"image":36,"author":41,"headline":10,"publisher":44,"fileFormat":47,"inLanguage":8,"description":12,"dateModified":48,"datePublished":49,"encodingFormat":47,"isAccessibleForFree":50,"interactionStatistic":51},"DigitalDocument",{"url":37,"@type":38,"width":39,"height":40},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/the-outlook-no-boom-no-doom/324961.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":42,"@type":43},"Jiven","Person",{"url":19,"name":45,"@type":46},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-28","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":52,"interactionType":53,"userInteractionCount":55},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":54},"ViewAction",12,{"@type":57,"mainEntity":58},"FAQPage",[59,65,69],{"name":60,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":62},"What do the Fourth District Economists’ Roundtable experts believe about the recession and recovery timeline?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"They unanimously believe the 1990–91 recession ended last spring and that growth is under way, though slowly.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"What growth path do the forecasters project for real GNP through 1992?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"They do not expect a decline in real GNP through at least year-end 1992, with a median forecast around about 3% moderate growth through 1992:IVQ.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"What factors are cited as holding back the recovery’s strength?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"Constraints include household and firm debt buildup from the 1980s, service-sector restructuring (especially financial, trade, and real estate), reduced defense spending, efficiency trends in inventories, and fiscal/monetary policies that are less stimulative than earlier upturns.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":32,"og:type":75,"og:title":10,"og:site_name":45,"og:description":12},"article",{"robots":77,"canonical":32},"index,follow",{"doc_id":79,"site_id":7},324961,1790127697,{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":83},"success",[84,88,92,96,101,106,111,115,120,123,127],{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":85,"show_sort_weight":86,"slug":87},"Story & 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\nIhe economy's mixed perfommance inrecent months has led to a growing per-ception that a recovery has not yet begun,or that its sustainability is threatened.Recent declines in housing sales and newcar sales,stalled industrial production,and minimal growth in employmenthave caused some observers to dismissthe reported third-quarter revival in eco-nomic growth.Pending layoffs by somemanufacturers,financial institutions,andretailers are seen as additiona warningflags of a faltering economy  \nIs the economy indeed headed for adouble-dip recession in the comingmonths?Not according to a panel of 25experts who met at the Federal ReserveBank of Cleveland in late October.TheFourth District Economists'Round-table,which convenes three times ayear to discuss current conditions and topresent expectations for the economy,unanimously believes that the 1990-91recession ended last spring and thatgrowth is under way,albeit slowly.  \n■ Recession Is Over,  \nbut Recovery Is Weak  \nNone of the Roundtable forecasters ex-pects a decline in real GNP through atleast year-end 1992(see figure 1).In-stead,their median real GNP forecastcalls for a moderate growth rate ofabout 3 percent from the present quar-ter through 1992:IVQ.!They expectthat industrial production,which roseat a7 percent annual rate in 1991:ⅢQ,will increase at about a 4 percent rateover the next four quarters.Consistentwith this relatively slow-growth sce-nario,the Roundtable group looks for  \n# The Outlook:No Boom,No Doom\n\nlabor markets to revive gradually,withthe unemployment rate holding at 6.8percent again this quarter and thenreceding to 6.3 percent by 1992:IVQ.  \nCompared with the seven previouspostwar recoveries,these predictionsindicate an uncommonly weak uptum,which is consistent with the economy'srecent mixed and jagged performance.One panelist acknowledged that someinformation suggests an apparent stall-ing in economic activity since late sum-mer,and noted that continued slowgrowth will inevitably raise questionsabout the sustainability of recovery.Awidespread mood of job insecurity issaid to be an important cause of therecent waning in consumer confidence.  \n## ■ What's Holding Us Back?\n\nA variety of constraints are claimed tobe holding the growth rate of the 1991-92 business uptum below average,ac-cording to the Roundtable.Some pointto the debt buildup of households andfirms in the 1980s,which must beworked down before consumers andbusinesses can resume a higher pace ofspending.Additional roadblocks arerestructuring in the service sector,espe-cially financial,trade,and real estate;declines in defense spending;a contin-ued trend toward efficiency in invento-ries;plus fiscal and monetary policiesthat are unlikely to be as stimulative asin most previous upturns.  \nStill,as one panelist pointed out,exportgrowth can be expected to continue tosupport the domestic economy,althoughthe path wil be bumpy,and residential  \nDecember 15.1991  \nAlthough economic growth apparentlyhas lost momentum in recentmonths,there is reason for optimism.Accordingto the Fourth District Economists'Roundtable,recovery is under way,andno double-dip recession is anticipated.Compared with previous episodes,how-ever,the upturn is likely to remainweak in response to a number of struc-tural adjustments.The inflation rate isexpected to moderate.  \nconstruction,especially of one-to four-family units,should be reasonablystrong as a result of the lowest mort-gage interest rates since the mid-1970s.  \nAlthough none of the Roundtable mem-bers predicted recession,one econo-mist acknowledged the possibility thatreal GNP growth could revert to zeroin any one quarter,because the marginbetween growth and no growth is rela-tively small.Yet even if the economyexpands at a 3 percent rate during itsfirst year of recovery,as the panel ex-pects,this would still approximate thepace of growth that prevailed duringthe second half of the 1980s,andwould be similar to that of the twoslowest re","cbCaioLUU2EqVBXb","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaioLUU2EqVBXb","pdf",1269790,"English","# The Outlook: No Boom, No Doom\n## Recession Is Over, but Recovery Is Weak\n## What's Holding Us Back?\n## Manufacturing: A Respectable Comeback","[{\"question\":\"What do the Fourth District Economists’ Roundtable experts believe about the recession and recovery timeline?\",\"answer\":\"They unanimously believe the 1990–91 recession ended last spring and that growth is under way, though slowly.\"},{\"question\":\"What growth path do the forecasters project for real GNP through 1992?\",\"answer\":\"They do not expect a decline in real GNP through at least year-end 1992, with a median forecast around about 3% moderate growth through 1992:IVQ.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors are cited as holding back the recovery’s strength?\",\"answer\":\"Constraints include household and firm debt buildup from the 1980s, service-sector restructuring (especially financial, trade, and real estate), reduced defense spending, efficiency trends in inventories, and fiscal/monetary policies that are less stimulative than earlier upturns.\"}]","The Outlook: No Boom, No Doom | PDF",1789969342,13]