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Using conservative assumptions and steady-state concepts, it estimates long-term positive effects on educational attainment and links these outcomes to higher lifetime earnings and broader social benefits. 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A separate study also estimates positive attainment effects for non-participating students in public schools exposed to choice competition.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},584302,1792208905,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":39,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":44,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},3985741905716,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_994ba38a5ba835b3df7d355c54d3ed8d","ED CHO ICE .ORG  \nFISCAL BRIEF  March 2026  \nThe Long-Run Payoff of Universal ESAs in Texas  \nMichael Q. McShane, Ph.D., Director of National Research, EdChoice  \nMartin F. Lueken, Ph.D., Director of the Fiscal Research and Education Center, EdChoice  \nEducation prepares young people for success later in life. But because we tend to only be able to measure short term inputs and outputs (like per pupil funding and student test scores) we often fail to estimate how much a program costs or benefits over the long term.  \nAdmittedly, the longer into the future one looks, the more uncertain the facts are. But with appropriate cautions in place, we can make some informed assumptions as to what will happen to students who participate in choice programs over the long term.  \nPrivate school choice programs have been repeatedly found to increase both high school graduation, college matriculation, and college graduation rates, for both participating students and for students who remain in public schools. All three of those are associated with higher lifetime earnings (and thus higher tax payments), and a host of other positive outcomes from longer, healthier life expectancies to decreased risks of either committing or being the victim of a crime.  \nEconomists have put dollar amounts on those benefits, and thus if we can estimate how many more high school students will attain education at a higher level than they would have absent the program, we can project the long-term benefit of the program. Taking this into account, and erring on the side of conservative estimates, we can reasonably estimate a positive long-term impact of a universal private educational choice program of between $1.3 billion and $19.8 billion in steady state (once the program has been in place long enough for the full pipeline of participating cohorts across all grades K-12 to be represented) . We also estimate systemic effects (benefits to changes in college outcomes for public school students) that we do not include in the topline estimates, thus providing another layer of caution to the analysis.  \nWhat we mean by “steady state.” When we report results for “steady state,” we mean the impact associated with all ESA students in K-12 in a given year, or the total benefit generated once the program has been in place long enough that participating students span all K–12 grade-level cohorts (roughly 13 cohorts moving through the pipeline at once) . Readers who want an estimate for a single graduating cohort (one year’s graduating class) can approximate it by dividing the steady-state totals by the number of grades in K-12 (i.e., 13) .  \nIn this sense, this brief takes a long view and makes a good-faith effort to estimate the benefits that accumulate over cohorts of students as they move through grades K through 12, based on empirical research on choice programs and benefits associated with educational attainment outcomes.  \nED CHO ICE .ORG  \nChoice’s Long-Term Impacts  \nThe term we use for indicators like highschool graduation, college enrollment, and college graduation is “attainment.” Different studies measure different things. Some look at high school graduation, others college graduation, but taken together, there have been nine studies of the attainment results of private school choice programs. Five of those studies found positive results for all participants, two studies found no visible effect, and one study found positive results for some subsets of students but no overall treatment effect.  \nTable 1 presents the studies and their results.  \nTABLE 1 Private School Choice Attainment Study Results  \n| PROGRAM | YEAR | FINDING |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n|  | Attain | ment of Program Participants |\n| Ohio EdChoice | 2025 | +15 pct pts College Enrollment, +9 pct pts College Graduation |\n| Indiana Choice Scholarship | 2021 | +3 pct pts HS graduation, +8 pct pts College Attendance |\n| Louisiana Scholarship Program | 2021 | No Impact on College Enrollment |\n| D.C. Opportunit","cbCaipneyc1TLd4N","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipneyc1TLd4N","pdf",306095,"English","# Introduction\n## Steady State and Long-Run Estimation\n# Choice’s Long-Term Impacts\n## Attainment Evidence from Studies\n## Effects on Public School Students\n# Value of Increased Education Attainment","[{\"question\":\"What does “steady state” mean in this brief?\",\"answer\":\"It refers to the total impact associated with all ESA students in K-12 in a given year, after enough time for participating cohorts across all grades to be represented. A single graduating cohort estimate can be approximated by dividing the steady-state totals by 13 grades.\"},{\"question\":\"How are “attainment” outcomes defined and measured?\",\"answer\":\"“Attainment” covers indicators such as high school graduation, college enrollment, and college graduation. Studies measure different components, and the brief summarizes findings across nine studies of private school choice attainment results.\"},{\"question\":\"What kinds of effects are reported for choice-program participants and non-participating public school students?\",\"answer\":\"For participants, multiple studies report improved high school graduation, college enrollment, and college graduation rates, with some studies showing no visible effect or effects in subsets only. A separate study also estimates positive attainment effects for non-participating students in public schools exposed to choice competition.\"}]","The Long-Run Payoff of Universal ESAs in Texas - Fiscal Brief March 2026 | PDF",1792050451,23]