[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110585-en":3,"doc-seo-110585-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110585,687197207639,"Asher","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","The Gambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis","The analysis evaluates The Gambia’s debt distress risk using updated macroeconomic assumptions within a joint World Bank–IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis framework. Both overall and external debt distress risk ratings are assessed as high, while public debt is considered sustainable. The update identifies breaches in indicative thresholds for key present value debt metrics, mainly driven by weak early export projections and higher medium-term debt service commitments. Despite risks, the public debt outlook remains sustainable, with downside scenarios tied to geopolitical shocks and the pandemic’s economic fallout, and projections show the PV of overall debt-to-GDP declining below its threshold by 2025.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nA. Adugna and Marcello Estevão (IDA); M. Mlachila, G. Palomba (IMF)  \nPrepared by the International Monetary Fund and the International Development Association 1.  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| THE GAMBIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings remain high and public debt continues to be deemed sustainable,2 similar to the previous DSA. Under the updated macro framework, there remain breaches of the indicative thresholds for the PV of external debt-to-exports, external debt service-to-exports and external debt service-to-revenue. These breaches primarily reflect continued weakness in export projections in the early years and rising debt service commitments in the medium-term. Similar to that estimated in the previous DSA, the PV of overall debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward sloping path and drops below its threshold by 2025, underpinned by fiscal consolidation and support from development partners, indicating that the public debt outlook remains sustainable. Downside risks are linked to the protracted war in Ukraine and the path of the COVID-19 pandemic that could weaken economic recovery, intensify fiscal pressures, and adversely affect the debt profile.  \n1 This DSA is an update compared to the previous full DSA approved in June 2022.  \n2 The Gambia’s Composite Index is estimated at 2.91 and is based on October 2022 WEO update and 2021 WB CPIA that was published in July 2022; the debt carrying capacity remains medium.  \n1. The coverage of debt remained the same as in the previous DSA (Text Table 1) . Similar to the June 2022 DSA, the current DSA reports the broader coverage of the public sector, which includes the central government, central bank and government-guaranteed debt pertaining to State-owned enterprises (SOEs) . As in the previous DSA, SOE debt linked to trade credit from the Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) is accounted for in the government debt. The contingent liabilities test uses default settings for financial markets (at default setting of 5 percent of GDP), representing the average cost to the government from a potential financial crisis in a low-income country, and SOE debt (at 2.0 percent of GDP for debt not explicitly guaranteed by the government) . Exposures to PPPs are set at zero, as PPPs in The Gambia are estimated to be marginal as a proportion of GDP. 3 The DSA uses a currencybased definition of external debt.  \n| 1 | Subsectors of the public sector | Sub-sectors covered |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n|  | Central government | X |\n| 2 | State and local government |  |\n| 3 | Other elements in the general government |  |\n| 4 | o/w: Social security fund |  |\n| 5 | o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |  |\n| 6 | Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) | X |\n| 7 | Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) | X |\n| 8 | Non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |\n\n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt | The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  | Default | Used for the\u003Cbr>analysis\u003Cbr>Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n| 2 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. | 0 | percent of GDP | 0.0 |\n| 3 | SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/ | 2 | percent of GDP | 2.0 |\n| 4 | PPP | 35 | percent of PPP stock | 0.0 PPPs are estimated to be marginal as a proportion of GDP |\n| 5 | Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value)\u003Cbr>Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP) | 5 | percent of GDP | 5.0\u003Cbr>7.0 |\n\n1/ The default shock of 2% of GDP will be triggered for countries whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured","cbCaiqX1SSkpyYkn","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqX1SSkpyYkn","pdf",659846,1,17,"English","en",105,"# Risk ratings and overall assessment\n## Breaches in indicative thresholds and drivers\n## Debt outlook and downside risks\n# Coverage and methodology\n## Public sector and debtor subsectors covered\n## Shock assumptions and contingent liabilities test\n## External debt definition and exposure scope","[{\"question\":\"What are The Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings?\",\"answer\":\"Both the overall risk of debt distress and the risk of external debt distress are rated high.\"},{\"question\":\"Why are indicative threshold breaches reported in the updated framework?\",\"answer\":\"Breaches are mainly linked to continued weakness in early-year export projections and rising debt service commitments in the medium term.\"},{\"question\":\"Is The Gambia’s public debt considered sustainable even with high risk ratings?\",\"answer\":\"Yes. The analysis concludes that public debt remains sustainable, and the PV of the overall debt-to-GDP ratio declines below its threshold by 2025.\"}]",1784486120,43,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"the-gambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-gambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis/110585/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What are The Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Both the overall risk of debt distress and the risk of external debt distress are rated high.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why are indicative threshold breaches reported in the updated framework?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Breaches are mainly linked to continued weakness in early-year export projections and rising debt service commitments in the medium term.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Is The Gambia’s public debt considered sustainable even with high risk ratings?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Yes. The analysis concludes that public debt remains sustainable, and the PV of the overall debt-to-GDP ratio declines below its threshold by 2025.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]