[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110360-en":3,"doc-seo-110360-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110360,549758252649,"Ivy","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/8000253669c5317157?_k=1778319167496531819",8,"Research & Report","The Gambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis","Joint World Bank and IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses The Gambia’s debt distress risk under an updated macroeconomic framework. External and overall debt distress risk ratings remain “high,” while public debt is deemed sustainable due to a downward path for the PV of overall debt-to-GDP and a projected drop below 55 percent of GDP by 2025. Temporary threshold breaches relate to weak early export projections and rising medium-term debt-service commitments, amid pandemic recovery fragility, Ukraine-related spillovers, and uncertainty around donor disbursements.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nMarcello Estevão and Abebe Adugna (IDA) Montfort Mlachila and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| THE GAMBIA : JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings remain “high” and public debt continues to be deemed sustainable, similar to the previous DSA prepared in the context of the third ECF review in November 2021.1 ,2 Under the updated macro framework, which incorporates the potential spillovers from the war in Ukraine, there are temporary breaches of the indicative thresholds for the PV of external debtto-exports, external debt service-to-exports and external debt service-to-revenue ratios. These breaches primarily reflect weak export projections in the early years and rising debt service commitments in the medium term. The PV of overall debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward sloping path and drops below its benchmark of 55 percent of GDP by 2025, underpinned by fiscal consolidation and support from development partners. This path indicates that the public debt outlook remains sustainable. Downside risks are linked to a potential resurgence of the pandemic that could trigger a prolonged economic recession, and uncertainty over donor support disbursements as well as associated fiscal pressures that could adversely affect the debt profile.  \n1. The COVID pandemic surge has abated, but the economic recovery remains soft and faces several challenges, in particular the spillovers from the war in Ukraine. The various waves of the pandemic have weighed on economic activity and The Gambia’s vaccination rate remains low at about 20 percent of the adult population. While there are nascent signs of improving activity, the outlook remains highly uncertain with significant downside risks. Inflationary pressures have risen in the wake of the Ukraine war, with upward revisions to fuel and food prices expected to have a significant impact on growth and inflation projections for 2022 and 2023, in particular (see section on Macro assumptions below) . Meanwhile, fiscal outturns were weaker than expected in 2021, reflecting a shortfall in donor budget support and some slippage in spending. The current account deficit widened by less than anticipated in 2021, on the back of improving tourist activity towards the end of the year and lower-than-anticipated imports linked to infrastructure projects. Baseline projections for the key macroeconomic indicators are highlighted in Text Table 3.  \n2. Compared to the previous DSA in November 2021 (third ECF review), the current DSA uses updated end-2021 data as a starting point. The current DSA uses the broader coverage of the public sector, which includes the central government, central bank and government-contracted debt pertaining to State-owned enterprises (SOEs) 3 ,4 (Text Table 1) . SOE debt linked to trade credit from the Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) is accounted for in the government debt. This includes short-term external financing to the large SOEs, namely, the National Water and Electric Company (NAWEC) and the Gambia National Petroleum Company (GNPC) .5 Additionally, the coverage for the contingent liabilities test uses default settings for financial markets (at the minimum of 5 percent of GDP), representing the average cost to the government from a potential financial crisis in a low-income country, and SOE debt (at 2.0 percent of GDP for debt not explicitly guaranteed by the government) .6 Exposures to PPPs are set at zero, as PPPsin the Gambia are estimated to be marginal as a proportion of GDP. External debt is based on currency and not residency.7  \n3. The Gambi","cbCaimaVuc112Jku","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimaVuc112Jku","pdf",952128,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk ratings and sustainability conclusion\n## External debt distress vs overall debt distress\n# Macro framework updates\n## Ukraine war spillovers and threshold breaches\n## Export weakness and debt service rises\n# Public debt path and key indicators\n## Downward PV trajectory and 2025 benchmark\n## Downside risks and donor uncertainty\n# Methodology and coverage in the updated DSA\n## Public sector coverage and SOE contingent liabilities\n## External debt basis and PPP treatment\n# Debt stock and profile by end-2021\n## Total and external debt ratios\n## Creditor breakdown and shares","[{\"question\":\"What are the assessed debt distress risk ratings for The Gambia?\",\"answer\":\"Both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk are rated “high.” The granularity in the risk rating is “Sustainable,” and the application of judgment is “No.”\"},{\"question\":\"Why do temporary threshold breaches occur under the updated macro framework?\",\"answer\":\"Breaches relate mainly to weak export projections in the early years and higher debt-service commitments in the medium term, leading to temporary exceedances of indicative thresholds for relevant PV and service ratios.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors support the conclusion that public debt remains sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"The PV of overall debt-to-GDP follows a downward trajectory and is projected to fall below the 55 percent of GDP benchmark by 2025, supported by fiscal consolidation and development partner support.\"}]",1784485064,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"the-gambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-gambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis/110360/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What are the assessed debt distress risk ratings for The Gambia?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk are rated “high.” The granularity in the risk rating is “Sustainable,” and the application of judgment is “No.”","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why do temporary threshold breaches occur under the updated macro framework?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Breaches relate mainly to weak export projections in the early years and higher debt-service commitments in the medium term, leading to temporary exceedances of indicative thresholds for relevant PV and service ratios.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What factors support the conclusion that public debt remains sustainable?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The PV of overall debt-to-GDP follows a downward trajectory and is projected to fall below the 55 percent of GDP benchmark by 2025, supported by fiscal consolidation and development partner 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