[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111142-en":3,"doc-seo-111142-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111142,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","The Gambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Public Debt Risk Assessment","The Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings remain high, even as public debt is assessed as sustainable, consistent with the June 2025 Joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis. Under the updated framework, external debt service-to-revenue breaches the threshold due to rising medium-term debt service, while domestic debt vulnerabilities worsen projections of the present value of overall debt-to-GDP. Fiscal consolidation, grants, concessional borrowing, and development-partner support help maintain a sustainable public debt outlook. The analysis evaluates debt coverage, includes currency swap-related external debt treatment, and tests contingent liabilities to capture potential shock risks.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Montfort Mlachila and Cemile Sancak (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| THE GAMBIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings remain high and public debt continues to be deemed sustainable, consistent with the last Joint WB/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) of June 2025.1 Debt vulnerabilities have, however, increased, reflecting higher external and domestic debt levels and domestic debt service. Under the updated framework, the external debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches the threshold, primarily reflecting rising debt service in the medium term. Heightened domestic debt vulnerabilities contribute to the breaches of the PV of overall debt-to-GDP ratio, though risks are mitigated by the projected drop below its benchmark of 55 percent of GDP in 2027, underpinned by fiscal consolidation, reliance on grants and concessional loans, and support from development partners. This path indicates that the public debt outlook remains sustainable.  \nAccess to the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) financing and continued reliance on IDA improves the public debt trajectory due to the replacement of relatively expensive financing with more affordable borrowing. Debt dynamics remain vulnerable to multiple macroeconomic shocks, in particular those to exports. Downside risks are linked to an escalation or spread of global and regional conflicts and an uncertain economic outlook. Ensuing global commodity  \n1 The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) Update was prepared jointly with the World Bank and in collaboration with The Gambian authorities. This DSA updates the DSA analysis in the staff report, No. 25/151 . The Gambia’s Composite Index is estimated at 3.10 and is based on October 2025 WEO update and 2024 WB CPIA; the final debt carrying capacity remains medium.  \nprice volatility and disruptions of global supply chains, together with an abrupt global slowdown, could weaken The Gambia’s economic recovery, intensify fiscal pressures, and adversely affect the debt profile.  \n1. Public debt coverage remains the same as in the June 2025 DSA. Debt data includes external and domestic obligations of the central government, including SOE debt linked to trade credit from the Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) . While other elements of public sector debt, such as nonguaranteed debt of state-owned enterprises, are not included due to data constraints, a contingent liability stress test is performed to enhance robustness. In line with the 2018 guidance note on the Bank-Fund DSA framework for LICs, total external debt data now includes the recent currency swap operation between the Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) and Afreximbank, amounting to US$75 million (about 2.9 percent of GDP) . The operation gives rise to non-guaranteed state-owned enterprises (SOE) domestic debt. This non-guaranteed domestic debt is not included in the DSA, the perimeter of which currently excludes nonguaranteed debt due to data gaps, because the public entity is assessed not to pose significant fiscal risksat present. Instead, the amount of the loan is added to the contingent liability stress test (see Box 1 for more details) . The DSA uses a currency-based definition of external debt. There is no significant difference between a currency-based and residency-based definition of external debt.  \n\n| 100\u003Cbr>90\u003Cbr>80\u003Cbr>70\u003Cbr>60\u003Cbr>50\u003Cbr>40\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>0 |  | 1200\u003Cbr>1000\u003Cbr>800\u003Cbr>600\u003Cbr>400\u003Cbr>200\u003Cbr>0 |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| Sources: The Gambian authorities; and IMF estimates |  | ","cbCaiglZqVPbSYiV","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiglZqVPbSYiV","pdf",786387,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Debt distress risk ratings\n## Overall and external risk levels\n## Granularity in risk rating and judgment use\n# Key drivers of the debt outlook\n## Breach of the external debt service-to-revenue threshold\n## Domestic vulnerabilities and debt-to-GDP dynamics\n# Financing and shock resilience\n## RSF financing and replacement of borrowing costs\n## Macroeconomic and commodity shock downside risks\n# Debt coverage and methodological updates\n## Public debt perimeter and treatment of SOE obligations\n## Currency swap operation and external debt definition\n# Contingent liability stress tests\n## Financing-sector shock and non-guaranteed SOEs debt\n## Default shock calibration adjustments","[{\"question\":\"How do The Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings compare?\",\"answer\":\"Both the overall risk of debt distress and the risk of external debt distress are rated as High in the analysis.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the external debt service-to-revenue ratio breach the threshold?\",\"answer\":\"The breach is primarily driven by rising external debt service in the medium term, reflecting increased external and domestic debt vulnerabilities.\"},{\"question\":\"How is non-guaranteed SOE debt treated in the baseline, and how is it tested for contingencies?\",\"answer\":\"Non-guaranteed domestic debt is not included in the DSA baseline due to data and assessed fiscal risk, but its potential impact is incorporated through a contingent liability stress test, including adjustments related to the currency swap.\"}]",1784488806,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"the-gambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-public-debt-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-gambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-public-debt-risk-assessment/111142/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How do The Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings compare?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Both the overall risk of debt distress and the risk of external debt distress are rated as High in the analysis.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the external debt service-to-revenue ratio breach the threshold?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The breach is primarily driven by rising external debt service in the medium term, reflecting increased external and domestic debt vulnerabilities.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How is non-guaranteed SOE debt treated in the baseline, and how is it tested for contingencies?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Non-guaranteed domestic debt is not included in the DSA baseline due to data and assessed fiscal risk, but its potential impact is incorporated through a contingent liability stress test, including adjustments related to the currency 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