[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110897-en":3,"doc-seo-110897-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110897,13056703019662,"Evangeline","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/be000253a8e92610077?_k=1778726343310543188",8,"Research & Report","The Gambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - December 2021","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis for The Gambia (December 2021) evaluates external and overall debt distress risks under an updated macro framework reflecting revised COVID-19 impact. The analysis maintains a “High” risk rating for both external and overall debt distress, while public debt is deemed sustainable. Temporary breaches occur for key external debt PV-to-exports and debt service-to-exports thresholds, driven by weaker export projections and creditor data reconciliation. Debt-to-GDP dynamics remain downward and cross below its threshold by 2025, with downside risks linked to pandemic resurgence and fiscal pressures.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nTHE GAMBIA  \nJOINT WORLD BANK-IMF DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS  \nDecember 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão, Abebe Adugna (IDA) Annalisa Fedelino,  \nGeremia Palomba (IMF)  \n\n| The Gambia: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n\nThe Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings remain “High” and public debt continues to be deemed sustainable, similar to the previous DSA. Under the updated macro framework to reflect the staff’s revised assessment of the impact ofCOVID-19, compared with the previous DSA 1prepared in the context of the first ECF review in December 2020, there remain temporary breaches of the indicative thresholds for the PV of external debt-to-exports ratio in 2021-22, and external debt service-to-exports ratio in 2021 and between 2025–29. These breaches reflect weak export projections for those years as well as upward revisions for the external debt service resulting from data reconciliation with creditors. Meanwhile, the PV of external debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches the threshold for 2021 and between 2026-2029. The PV of overall debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward sloping path and drops below its  \n1 The Gambia’s Composite Index is estimated at 2.90 and is based on April 2021 WEO and 2019 WB CPIA; the debt carrying capacity remains medium.  \nthreshold by 2025 (one year later than estimated in the previous DSA), indicating that the public debt outlook remains sustainable. Downside risks are linked to a potential resurgence of the pandemic that could trigger a prolonged economic recession, with added fiscal pressures adversely affecting the debt profile.  \nBACKGROUND  \n1. During the few years following the remarkable political turn-around in 2016–17 and prior to the onset of the pandemic, The Gambia had shown strong macroeconomic performance. Economic growth accelerated from 2 percent in 2016 to 6 percent in 2019, driven by strong tourism arrivals and private capital inflows. This economic performance helped improve some key social indicators; The Gambia’s Human development index improved from 0.475 in 2016 to 0.496 in 2019; infant mortality rate declined by 0.8 percentage point and primary school net enrollment rate increased from 77.7 percent to 81.8 percent. Foreign exchange coverage soared from about one month of imports to 4 months of imports during this period, buoyed by large private remittances and disbursements from development partners. Debt sustainability improved as the fiscal deficit narrowed by about 7 percentage points of GDP during this period and most creditors agreed on some debt deferrals in 2019. Inflation remained broadly stable. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted some of the hard-won progress.  \n\n| Text Table 1. The Gambia: External and Public DSAs: Coverage of Public Debt and Design of\u003Cbr>Contingent Liabilities Stress Test |\n| --- |\n|  |\n\n2. Compared to the previous DSA in December 2020 (1st ECF review), the current DSA uses updated end-2020 data as a starting point. Like the previous DSA, the current DSA uses the broader coverage of the public sector, which includes the central government, central bank and government-guaranteed debt pertaining to State-owned enterprises (Text Table 1) . As in the previous DSA, SOE debt linked to trade credit from the Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) is accounted for in the government debt. This includes short-term external financing to the large SOEs, namely, the National Water and Electric Company (NAWEC), the Gambia Groundnut Corporation (GGC) and the Gambia National Petroleu","cbCaisljUcnafaGo","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaisljUcnafaGo","pdf",2847818,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Debt distress risk ratings\n## Key threshold breaches and drivers\n# Background\n## Macroeconomic performance pre-COVID-19\n## Impact of COVID-19 on progress\n# Methodology and coverage\n## Public sector coverage and contingent liabilities stress test\n## Debt data revisions and scope\n# Debt and debt-service outlook","[{\"question\":\"What are the assessed external and overall debt distress risks for The Gambia?\",\"answer\":\"Both external and overall debt distress risk ratings are assessed as “High.”\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt sustainability thresholds show temporary breaches, and why?\",\"answer\":\"Temporary breaches occur for the PV of external debt-to-exports ratio (2021–22) and the external debt service-to-exports ratio (2021 and 2025–29). The breaches reflect weak export projections and upward revisions to external debt service from creditor data reconciliation.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the public debt outlook remain sustainable despite high distress risk ratings?\",\"answer\":\"The PV of the overall debt-to-GDP ratio follows a downward path and drops below its threshold by 2025, one year later than the prior DSA, indicating sustainability. Downside risks are tied to possible pandemic resurgence and related fiscal pressures.\"}]",1784487602,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"the-gambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-december-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-gambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-december-2021/110897/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What are the assessed external and overall debt distress risks for The Gambia?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Both external and overall debt distress risk ratings are assessed as “High.”","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Which debt sustainability thresholds show temporary breaches, and why?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Temporary breaches occur for the PV of external debt-to-exports ratio (2021–22) and the external debt service-to-exports ratio (2021 and 2025–29). The breaches reflect weak export projections and upward revisions to external debt service from creditor data reconciliation.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"How does the public debt outlook remain sustainable despite high distress risk ratings?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The PV of the overall debt-to-GDP ratio follows a downward path and drops below its threshold by 2025, one year later than the prior DSA, indicating sustainability. Downside risks are tied to possible pandemic resurgence and related fiscal pressures.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]