[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109731-en":3,"doc-seo-109731-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109731,1099514067438,"River Wang","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002539ee87300030?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780474512215547542",8,"Research & Report","The Gambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - 1 January 2021","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis evaluates The Gambia’s debt risk under an updated macroeconomic framework reflecting revised COVID-19 impact. Overall and external debt distress risk remains “High,” while the granularity indicates “Sustainable,” with no judgment applied. Near-term indicators deteriorate: PV external debt-to-exports and external debt service-to-exports breach thresholds into 2021. The PV of overall public debt-to-GDP declines below the sustainability benchmark by 2024. Risks include renewed pandemic delays, weakened fiscal conditions, and financing needs.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nTHE GAMBIA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis 1 January 2021  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) Annalisa Fedelino and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \n\n| The Gambia\u003Cbr>Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings remain “High” and public debt continues to be deemed sustainable.2 Under the updated macro framework that reflects the staff’s revised assessment of the impact of COVID-19, compared with the previous DSA,3 prepared in the context of the RCF request in April 2020, the near-term public debt indicators have deteriorated. Breaches of the present value (PV) of external debt-to-exports and external debt service-to-exports thresholds have extended until 2021 and their magnitude has amplified. The PV of overall public debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward sloping path and drops below its sustainability benchmark by 2024, one year later than projected in the previous DSA. Thus, current evidence indicates that the public debt outlook, while weakened, remains sustainable on a forward-looking basis. Downside risks stem from a possible resurgence in the COVID-19 pandemic delaying the expected economic recovery and weakening the fiscal outlook.  \n1 The DSA was prepared by IMF and World Bank staffs in collaboration with the authorities of The Gambia, based on the updated Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC-DSF) .  \n2 Based on the IMF’s April 2020 WEO and the World Bank’s 2019 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), The Gambia’s debt carrying capacity is assessed as “medium,” with a CI Score of 2.78, which is just above the cutoff level for “weak”debt bearing capacity (2.69) .  \n3 IMF Country Report No. 20/119 .  \n1. The COVID-19 shock has worsened the near-term outlook compared to the previous DSA. GDP growth in 2020 is estimated to have dropped from 2.5 percent projected earlier to 0 percent and therebound projected for 2021 is also expected to be somewhat lower (6 percent, compared to 6.5 percent projected at the time ofthe RCF request in April 2020). The disruption in tourism is expected to extend into 2021, with tourist arrivals projected to recover to the pre-pandemic levels only in late 2021. While strong domestic revenue collection and higher grant disbursements improve the primary balance in 2020, it is projected to deteriorate in 2021 from a surplus of 0.8 percent of GDP projected at the time of the RCF request to a deficit of 1.3 percent of GDP, mainly reflecting the intention to stimulate the economic recovery through an increase in public investment (as reflected in the 2021 budget) and an associated increase in financing needs.  \n2. The expected slowdown in project execution in 2020 and increased financial assistance from donors in the form of budget support grants and other official transfers have modified the financing assumptions. Due to a slowdown in project execution, the disbursement of project loans in 2020 is expected to fall behind the previously projected level. The additional COVID-19-related financing needs are being largely met by increased donor support in the form of grants. The total COVID- 19 assistance in 2020 amounts to US$48 million. This comprises budget support augmentation, totaling US$26.4 million, from the European Union (US$19.4 million) and the African Development Bank (US$7 million), and additional or accelerated disbursements of grants for social projects by the World Bank amounting to US$21.6 million, including the Health Fast-Track Facilit","cbCailrzqs5zsbHN","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCailrzqs5zsbHN","pdf",353055,3,1,12,"English","en",105,"# Risk ratings and overall assessment\n## External debt distress risk\n## Granularity and judgment\n# Macroeconomic update and indicator deterioration\n## COVID-19 impact on growth and tourism\n## Fiscal balance changes and financing needs\n# Financing assumptions and COVID-19 assistance\n## Donor support and grant disbursements\n## Debt service deferrals and DSSI relief","[{\"question\":\"What are the overall and external debt distress risk ratings for The Gambia?\",\"answer\":\"Both the overall risk of debt distress and the risk of external debt distress remain “High.”\"},{\"question\":\"How did the updated COVID-19 macro framework affect near-term debt indicators?\",\"answer\":\"Near-term public debt indicators deteriorated, extending breaches of PV external debt-to-exports and external debt service-to-exports thresholds into 2021 and increasing their magnitude.\"},{\"question\":\"Does the report conclude that public debt is sustainable over the forward-looking horizon?\",\"answer\":\"Yes. Despite a weakened outlook, current evidence indicates public debt remains sustainable on a forward-looking basis, with the PV debt-to-GDP ratio dropping below the benchmark by 2024.\"}]","The Gambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - 1 January 2021 | PDF",1784482113,30,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"the-gambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-1-january-2021","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-gambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-1-january-2021/109731/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What are the overall and external debt distress risk ratings for The Gambia?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Both the overall risk of debt distress and the risk of external debt distress remain “High.”","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How did the updated COVID-19 macro framework affect near-term debt indicators?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Near-term public debt indicators deteriorated, extending breaches of PV external debt-to-exports and external debt service-to-exports thresholds into 2021 and increasing their magnitude.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Does the report conclude that public debt is sustainable over the forward-looking horizon?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Yes. Despite a weakened outlook, current evidence indicates public debt remains sustainable on a forward-looking basis, with the PV debt-to-GDP ratio dropping below the benchmark by 2024.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,123,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":122},"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]