[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111909-en":3,"doc-seo-111909-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111909,1374391974564,"Clementine","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253aa45c000a9e?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779874745381141002",8,"Research & Report","The Gambia - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis","The Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings remain high, while public debt is assessed as sustainable under the June 2025 joint WB/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis framework. Updated assumptions show increased debt vulnerabilities driven by higher external and domestic debt and rising debt service, including breaches of the external debt service-to-revenue threshold. Risks are moderated by projected improvement in overall PV of debt-to-GDP due to fiscal consolidation, grants, concessional loans, and RSF support, though macro shocks—especially export shocks—remain critical.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Montfort Mlachila and Cemile Sancak (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| THE GAMBIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings remain high and public debt continues to be deemed sustainable, consistent with the last Joint WB/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) of June 2025.1 Debt vulnerabilities have, however, increased, reflecting higher external and domestic debt levels and domestic debt service. Under the updated framework, the external debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches the threshold, primarily reflecting rising debt service in the medium term. Heightened domestic debt vulnerabilities contribute to the breaches of the PV of overall debt-to-GDP ratio, though risks are mitigated by the projected drop below its benchmark of 55 percent of GDP in 2027, underpinned by fiscal consolidation, reliance on grants and concessional loans, and support from development partners. This path indicates that the public debt outlook remains sustainable.  \nAccess to the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) financing and continued reliance on IDA improves the public debt trajectory due to the replacement of relatively expensive financing with more affordable borrowing. Debt dynamics remain vulnerable to multiple macroeconomic shocks, in particular those to exports. Downside risks are linked to an escalation or spread of global and regional conflicts and an uncertain economic outlook. Ensuing global commodity  \n1 The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) Update was prepared jointly with the World Bank and in collaboration with The Gambian authorities. This DSA updates the DSA analysis in the staff report, No. 25/151 . The Gambia’s Composite Index is estimated at 3.10 and is based on October 2025 WEO update and 2024 WB CPIA; the final debt carrying capacity remains medium.  \nprice volatility and disruptions of global supply chains, together with an abrupt global slowdown, could weaken The Gambia’s economic recovery, intensify fiscal pressures, and adversely affect the debt profile.  \n1. Public debt coverage remains the same as in the June 2025 DSA. Debt data includes external and domestic obligations of the central government, including SOE debt linked to trade credit from the Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) . While other elements of public sector debt, such as nonguaranteed debt of state-owned enterprises, are not included due to data constraints, a contingent liability stress test is performed to enhance robustness. In line with the 2018 guidance note on the Bank-Fund DSA framework for LICs, total external debt data now includes the recent currency swap operation between the Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) and Afreximbank, amounting to US$75 million (about 2.9 percent of GDP) . The operation gives rise to non-guaranteed state-owned enterprises (SOE) domestic debt. This non-guaranteed domestic debt is not included in the DSA, the perimeter of which currently excludes nonguaranteed debt due to data gaps, because the public entity is assessed not to pose significant fiscal risksat present. Instead, the amount of the loan is added to the contingent liability stress test (see Box 1 for more details) . The DSA uses a currency-based definition of external debt. There is no significant difference between a currency-based and residency-based definition of external debt.  \n\n| 100\u003Cbr>90\u003Cbr>80\u003Cbr>70\u003Cbr>60\u003Cbr>50\u003Cbr>40\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>0 |  | 1200\u003Cbr>1000\u003Cbr>800\u003Cbr>600\u003Cbr>400\u003Cbr>200\u003Cbr>0 |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| Sources: The Gambian authorities; and IMF estimates |  | ","cbCaihvjQ47lgNO9","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihvjQ47lgNO9","pdf",860606,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Key Risk Ratings\n## External and overall debt distress\n## Judgment application\n# Debt Dynamics and Drivers\n## Threshold breaches and vulnerabilities\n## Domestic debt and mitigants\n# Financing, RSF, and Public Debt Outlook\n## Replacing expensive financing with concessional borrowing\n# Stress Tests and Coverage\n## Contingent liability stress tests\n## Public debt perimeter and currency swap impacts\n# Downside Risks\n## Global commodity volatility and supply chain disruptions\n## Geopolitical escalation and weakened recovery","[{\"question\":\"What are the current debt distress risk ratings for The Gambia?\",\"answer\":\"Both the overall risk of debt distress and the risk of external debt distress are rated high, consistent with the prior joint DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"Why did the external debt service-to-revenue threshold breach occur?\",\"answer\":\"The breach is driven primarily by higher external debt service in the medium term, reflecting increased debt vulnerabilities alongside higher debt levels.\"},{\"question\":\"How do RSF financing and continued IDA support affect the public debt trajectory?\",\"answer\":\"RSF financing and reliance on IDA improve the public debt trajectory by replacing relatively expensive financing with more affordable borrowing, helping sustain a manageable outlook despite vulnerabilities.\"}]",1784492268,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"the-gambia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-gambia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis/111909/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What are the current debt distress risk ratings for The Gambia?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Both the overall risk of debt distress and the risk of external debt distress are rated high, consistent with the prior joint DSA.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why did the external debt service-to-revenue threshold breach occur?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The breach is driven primarily by higher external debt service in the medium term, reflecting increased debt vulnerabilities alongside higher debt levels.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How do RSF financing and continued IDA support affect the public debt trajectory?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"RSF financing and reliance on IDA improve the public debt trajectory by replacing relatively expensive financing with more affordable borrowing, helping sustain a manageable outlook despite 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