[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111195-en":3,"doc-seo-111195-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111195,34359740700684,"Finn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1f400023980c374ae676?_k=1777273430885731487",8,"Research & Report","The Gambia - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - High risk of debt distress","The Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings remain high, while public debt is assessed as sustainable under the updated macro framework. Breaches of the external debt service-to-revenue threshold stem from rising external debt service commitments in the medium term. Domestic debt vulnerabilities drive breaches of the present value of overall debt-to-GDP ratio, tempered by the projected decline below the 55 percent of GDP benchmark in 2026 supported by fiscal consolidation, grants and concessional lending, and development partner support. Debt dynamics stay vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks, especially export-related ones, with downside risks linked to conflict-driven commodity price volatility and global supply disruptions.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA), and Montfort Mlachila and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| THE GAMBIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Gambia’s overall and external debt distress risk ratings remain high and public debt continues to be deemed sustainable,1 similar to the previous DSA. Under the updated macro framework, the external debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches the threshold, primarily reflecting rising debt service commitments in the medium term. Heightened domestic debt vulnerabilities contribute to the breaches of the PV of overall debt-to-GDP ratio, though risks are mitigated by the projected drop below its benchmark of 55 percent of GDP in 2026, underpinned by fiscal consolidation, reliance on grants and concessional loans, and support from development partners. This path indicates that the public debt outlook remains sustainable. The debt dynamics remain vulnerable to multiple macroeconomic shocks, in particular those to exports. Downside risks are linked to an escalation or spread of global and regional conflicts, with the ensuing global commodity price volatility and disruptions of global supply chains, which together with an abrupt global slowdown could weaken The Gambia’s economic recovery, intensify fiscal pressures, and adversely affect the debt profile.  \n1 The Gambia’s Composite Index is estimated at 3.01 and is based on April 2024 WEO update and 2022 WB CPIA that was published in July 2023; the debt carrying capacity remains medium.  \n1. Compared to the previous DSA in December 2023, the current DSA uses end-2023 data as a starting point. The DSA uses a broader coverage of the public sector, which includes the central government, central bank, and government-contracted debt pertaining to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)(Text Table 1) .2 SOE debt linked to trade credit from the Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) is accounted for in the government debt. This includes short-term external financing to the large SOEs, namely, the National Water and Electric Company (NAWEC) and the Gambia National Petroleum Company (GNPC), through loans contracted directly by these SOEs with a government guarantee. Additionally, the coverage for the contingent liabilities test uses default settings for financial markets (at the minimum of 5 percent of GDP), representing the average cost to the government from a potential financial crisis in a low-income country, and SOE debt (at 2.0 percent of GDP for debt not explicitly guaranteed by the government) .3 Exposures to PPPs are set at zero, as PPPs in The Gambia are currently estimated to be marginal as a proportion of GDP. The DSA uses a currency-based definition of external debt. There is no significant difference between a currency-based and residency-based definition of external debt.4  \n|  |  Subsectors of the public sector Check box \u003Cbr>Central government X\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X Non-guaranteed SOE debt |\n| --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 |  |\n\nPublic debt coverage and the magnitude of the contingent liability tailored stress test B. Please customize elements of the contingent liability tailored test, as applicable.  \n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt  The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  | Default | Used for the analysis | R","cbCaibpLSL3hXMbI","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibpLSL3hXMbI","pdf",1120603,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress Assessment\n## Overall risk vs external risk ratings\n## Judgment and granularity in risk rating\n# Macroeconomic drivers and threshold breaches\n## External debt service-to-revenue threshold\n## Present value debt-to-GDP dynamics\n# Contingent liability and public debt coverage\n## Coverage definition of public debt\n## Tailored stress test settings and deviations\n# Vulnerability and downside risks","[{\"question\":\"What are the risk ratings for The Gambia’s debt distress in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Both overall and external debt distress risk ratings are assessed as high. The granularity indicates the internal rating framework has a sustainable public-debt outlook despite high distress risks.\"},{\"question\":\"What causes the breach of the external debt service-to-revenue threshold?\",\"answer\":\"The breach is driven primarily by rising external debt service commitments in the medium term under the updated macro framework.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the public debt outlook still considered sustainable despite high risk ratings?\",\"answer\":\"Risks are mitigated by a projected drop of the present value of debt-to-GDP below the 55 percent of GDP benchmark in 2026, supported by fiscal consolidation, reliance on grants and concessional loans, and development partner support.\"}]",1784489043,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"the-gambia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-debt-distress","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-gambia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-debt-distress/111195/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What are the risk ratings for The Gambia’s debt distress in this analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Both overall and external debt distress risk ratings are assessed as high. The granularity indicates the internal rating framework has a sustainable public-debt outlook despite high distress risks.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What causes the breach of the external debt service-to-revenue threshold?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The breach is driven primarily by rising external debt service commitments in the medium term under the updated macro framework.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why is the public debt outlook still considered sustainable despite high risk ratings?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Risks are mitigated by a projected drop of the present value of debt-to-GDP below the 55 percent of GDP benchmark in 2026, supported by fiscal consolidation, reliance on grants and concessional loans, and development partner support.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]