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A median forecast projects real GNP growth easing from about 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 1989 toward a slower pace through the first half of 1990, followed by a modest acceleration into the second half and early 1991. Fixed investment and exports are expected to drive most expansion, but with weaker investment conditions, persistent trade deficits, and limited inflation improvement.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-economic-outlook-growth-weakens-inflation-unchanged/324826/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/the-economic-outlook-growth-weakens-inflation-unchanged/324826.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Quinn","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-27","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":52},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What is the roundtable consensus on economic growth through 1990 and into 1991?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"The median view expects real GNP to rise by about 2.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 1989 to the fourth quarter of 1990, with growth around a 1.5 percent annual rate in the first half and about a 2.5 percent rate in the second half continuing into early 1991.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"How do economists expect inflation to change despite slower growth?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"Most participants expect little improvement in the overall inflation rate, even as growth slows during 1990.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"Which sectors are expected to contribute most to growth in 1990, and what limitations are noted?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Fixed investment and exports are expected to provide most of the strength, but growth in both sectors is expected to be less than in 1988 or 1989, with concerns including reduced capital spending, easing capacity utilization, and weaker investment momentum.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},324826,1790117324,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":52,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":24,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},962075114765,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd","by John J.Erceg and  \nPaul J.Nickels  \n工  \nthe air as the latest meeting of the FourthDistrict Economists'Roundtable,heldJanuary 26 at the Federal Reserve Bankof Cleveland,came to order.With themeeting set to begin at 9:30 am.,manyof the 27 participating economists anx-iously perused the fourth-quarter 1989figures released by the Commerce De-partment just an hour earlier.Would thenumbers reflect the slowdown-without-·recession so greatly anticipated as theeconomy headed into its eighth year ofexpansion?  \nThe answer was,largely,yes.The par-ticipating economists'median forecasthad called for a fourth-quarter realGNPgrowth rate of 0.7 percent;thegovermment's advance estimate(sub-ject,of course,to later revision)was  \n0.5 percent(see table 1).The govern-ment's GNPprice index showed an in-crease of 3.8 percent for the quarter;Roundtable economists had posted pre-cisely the same median figure.  \nNaturally,their range of predictionswas wider.The high figure for fourth-quarter GNPgrowth was 2 percent;thelow,a pessimistic-0.9 percent.Therange was equally broad for the infla-tion figure,with predictions spread be-tween a high of 5.5 percent and a lowof 1.9 percent  \n# The Economic Outlook:GrowthWeakens,Inflation Unchanged\n\nYet all gathered seemed to agree,de-spite the inevitable difference in viewson specifics among economists frommanufacturing,services,and banking,that the economic expansion is still con-tinuing,and several key factors seem tosuggest a strengthening pace later in1990 and beyond.  \n## ■ The Consensus Outlook\n\nThe median forecast of the economy  \nshows a growth rate in real GNPofabout 2.1 percent from the fourth quar-ter of 1989 to the fourth quarter of1990,slightly less than the comparableperiod in 1989.The forecasters antici-pate growth at about a 1.5 percent an-nual rate in the first half,to be fol-lowed by about a 2.5 percent growthrate in the second half,continuing intoearly 1991.Only one economist ex-pects a decline in real GNP in the firsthalf of 1990,with the decline to be fol-lowed by a 3.5 percent growth rate forthe second half of the year.  \nWhere will the expected growth in theeconomy come from in 1990?The fore-casters agreed that fixed investmentand exports will provide most of thestrength,although growth rates in bothof those sectors are expected to be lessthan in 1988 or 1989.A Midwest bank-ing economist noted that business fixedinvestment and exports,which ac-counted for 53 percent of the economicgrowth between 1987 and 1989,were  \nMarch 1,1990  \nThe consensus forecast among econo-mists attending the most recentFourth District Economists'Round-table calls for continuing slow growthwell into 1990 followed by a morerapid growth in output by late thisyear.Little improvement is expected,however,in the overall inflation ratedespite the current slow growth.  \nnot expected to do as well in 1990.Hepointed to capital spending surveys for1990 that call for a reduced pace ofspending from 1989;easing capacityutilization rates in manufacturing;anddeclines in cash flow brought about byeroding profits as suggesting slowergrowth in investment this year than last.  \nThe merchandise trade deficit is un-likely to improve much in 1990 andwill hold in a $110 to $120 billionrange.That view is based on the rise inthe dollar exchange rate during the firsthalf of 1989 and an expected slowingin economic growth abroad in 1990.  \nMost of the forecasters anticipate thatconsumer spending will help to sustainoverall growth of the economy,but willnot add to the growth rate.An econo-mist asserted that consumers have builttheir desired stock of durable goods,atleast for the moment,and in the pro-  \n## TABLE1 MEDIANFORECAST OF CHANGEIN GNPAND RELATED ITEMS\n\n\n|  | Change in levels,bilions of dollars,s.a.a.r.\"   |  |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  | 1990   |  |  |  |\n|  | 1989   | 1990°   | IQ   | IQ   | IIQ   | IVQ   |\n| NPin constant(1982)dollars   | 98.7   | 86.7   | 11.2   | 17.9   | 22.7   | 29.0   |\n|","cbCaiphkII2aCWIa","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiphkII2aCWIa","pdf",1122442,"English","# The Economic Outlook: Growth Weakens, Inflation Unchanged\n## The Consensus Outlook\n## Table 1 Median Forecast of Change in GNP and Related Items\n## The View from Manufacturing","[{\"question\":\"What is the roundtable consensus on economic growth through 1990 and into 1991?\",\"answer\":\"The median view expects real GNP to rise by about 2.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 1989 to the fourth quarter of 1990, with growth around a 1.5 percent annual rate in the first half and about a 2.5 percent rate in the second half continuing into early 1991.\"},{\"question\":\"How do economists expect inflation to change despite slower growth?\",\"answer\":\"Most participants expect little improvement in the overall inflation rate, even as growth slows during 1990.\"},{\"question\":\"Which sectors are expected to contribute most to growth in 1990, and what limitations are noted?\",\"answer\":\"Fixed investment and exports are expected to provide most of the strength, but growth in both sectors is expected to be less than in 1988 or 1989, with concerns including reduced capital spending, easing capacity utilization, and weaker investment momentum.\"}]","The Economic Outlook - Growth Weakens, Inflation Unchanged | PDF",1789968971,13]