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This study examines degree completion and fourth-year cumulative GPA across 97,282 students at 73 four-year institutions, focusing on FYGPA categories between 2.00 and 2.99. Results show low graduation and CGPA attainment rates, especially for FYGPA 2.00–2.49, and identify higher risk for first-generation, underrepresented minority, and disadvantaged neighborhood groups. Logistic regression indicates reduced odds of graduating within four years and reaching a 3.00+ CGPA when FYGPA is below 3.00, supporting early identification and targeted advising.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-consequences-of-a-low-first-year-grade-point-average-on-later-college-outcomes/583864/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/the-consequences-of-a-low-first-year-grade-point-average-on-later-college-outcomes/583864.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Connor ","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-29","2026-10-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":34},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What academic signals does a low first-year GPA represent in this study?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"The study treats FYGPA in the range 2.00 to 2.99 as the “murky middle,” contrasting with the typical meaning of 2.00+ for acceptable progress and 3.00+ for higher success expectations. It evaluates how this range relates to graduation and fourth-year CGPA outcomes.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"How do graduation rates and fourth-year CGPA outcomes differ by FYGPA category?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"For FYGPAs of 2.50–2.99, 48% graduated within four years and 45% achieved a fourth-year CGPA of 3.00 or higher. For FYGPAs of 2.00–2.49, those figures drop to 28% graduating within four years and 18% reaching a 3.00+ fourth-year CGPA.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"Which student groups were more likely to have FYGPAs between 2.00 and 2.99?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Students with FYGPAs of 2.00–2.99 were more likely to be first-generation college students, underrepresented minority students, and students from more challenging neighborhood environments.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},583864,1792077703,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":34,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":56,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},687207022233,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d","SEPTEMBER 2023  \nThe Consequences of a Low First-Year Grade Point Average on Later College Outcomes  \nPAUL A. WESTRICK, JESSICA P. MARINI, LINDA YOUNG, HELEN NG, & EMILY J. SHAW  \nContents  \nAbstract ......................................................................................................................................................... 3  \nIntroduction .................................................................................................................................................. 4  \nMethods ........................................................................................................................................................ 5  \nData ........................................................................................................................................................... 5  \nStudent Subgroupings ........................................................................................................................... 5  \nInstitution Subgroupings ....................................................................................................................... 5  \nMeasures................................................................................................................................................... 6  \nDescriptive Statistics ................................................................................................................................. 6  \nTable 1. Descriptive Statistics ........................................................................................................... 8  \nTable 2. Fourth-Year Outcomes by FYGPA Categories, Overall and by Student Subgroups.............9  \nMethods .............................................................................................................................................. 10  \nResults ..................................................................................................................................................... 11  \nFigure 1: Mean Probability of Graduating Within Four Years, Given Students’ FYGPAs, Overall and by Subgroups................................................................................................................................... 11  \nFigure 2: Mean Probability of Earning a Fourth-Year Cumulative GPA Of 3.00 or Higher, Given Students’ FYGPAs, Overall and by Subgroups................................................................................. 12  \nFigure 3: Probability of Graduating Within Four Years Given a FYGPA of 2.00, Overall and by Student Subgroups, Medians and Interquartile Ranges Across Institutions .................................. 13  \nFigure 4: Probability of Graduating Within Four Years Given a FYGPA of 2.50, Overall and by Student Subgroups, Medians and Interquartile Ranges Across Institutions .................................. 14  \nFigure 5: Probability of Earning a Fourth-Year CGPA Of 3.00 or Higher Given a FYGPA of 2.00, Overall and by Student Subgroups, Medians And Interquartile Ranges Across Institutions.......... 15  \nFigure 6: Probability of Earning a Fourth-Year CGPA of 3.00 or Higher Given a FYGPA of 2.50, Overall and by Student Subgroups, Medians and Interquartile Ranges Across Institutions .......... 15  \nDiscussion.................................................................................................................................................... 16  \nConclusion................................................................................................................................................... 16  \nReferences .................................................................................................................................................. 18  \nAbstract  \nTraditionally, a college grade point average (GPA) of 2.00 or higher has signified that a student has made acceptable academic progress and avoided academic probation. However, having a 3.00 or higher has","cbCaihP99hRgVVIJ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihP99hRgVVIJ","pdf",970784,"English","# Contents\n## Abstract\n## Introduction\n## Methods\n## Results\n## Discussion\n## Conclusion\n## References","[{\"question\":\"What academic signals does a low first-year GPA represent in this study?\",\"answer\":\"The study treats FYGPA in the range 2.00 to 2.99 as the “murky middle,” contrasting with the typical meaning of 2.00+ for acceptable progress and 3.00+ for higher success expectations. It evaluates how this range relates to graduation and fourth-year CGPA outcomes.\"},{\"question\":\"How do graduation rates and fourth-year CGPA outcomes differ by FYGPA category?\",\"answer\":\"For FYGPAs of 2.50–2.99, 48% graduated within four years and 45% achieved a fourth-year CGPA of 3.00 or higher. For FYGPAs of 2.00–2.49, those figures drop to 28% graduating within four years and 18% reaching a 3.00+ fourth-year CGPA.\"},{\"question\":\"Which student groups were more likely to have FYGPAs between 2.00 and 2.99?\",\"answer\":\"Students with FYGPAs of 2.00–2.99 were more likely to be first-generation college students, underrepresented minority students, and students from more challenging neighborhood environments.\"}]","The Consequences of a Low First-Year Grade Point Average on Later College Outcomes | PDF",1792048774,48]