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Highlights the 47th Annual Literature Awards featuring author Alex Haley and medal winners across non-fiction, fiction, poetry, juvenile, and unclassified categories. 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 \nSilver,Poetry:  \nIN MEDITERRANEAN AIR,Ann Stanford;  \nSilver,Juvenile:  \nA SHEPHERD WATCHES,A SHEPHERD  \nSINGS,Louis Irigaray and Theodore Taylor;  \nBOTANICAL PRINTS,Henry Evans;  \nSilver,Unclassified:  \nSilver,Unclassified:  \nHAYWIRE,Brooke Hayward.  \nAdvance Tickets—$8.Reservations must be paid in advance.Unpaid reservationswill be cancelled at 2 p.m.,Wednesday,June 14.Mail check to Commonwealth Club,681 Market Street,San Francisco 94105,or call 362-4903 for reservations.  \nBARTON W.SHACKELFORD,Quarterly Chairman  \nJUNE 23 The Hon.Harold Brown,Secretary of DefenseSee ad on page 193 for reservation information.  \n## Can Democracy Survive Its Crusaders?\"I Think Not,\"says Kahn\n\nFRIDAY FLASHES—JUNE 2From Address by Herman Kahn,chairman and director,Hudson Institute  \nCan the democratic society survive thegood intentions of its crusaders?I thinknot.That seems to be true of most de-mocratic societies in world history.De-mocracy is a fairly fragile blossom.As aform of government,it usually does notwork.Check the history of the last 200years and you'll find that the only placewhere democratic government has ac-tually survived has been in Scandanaviaand Switzerland.If you ask why,it is gen-erally due to good intentions.It is anAmerican phrase,however,that the roadto hell is paved with good intentions.  \n## Limits to Growth\n\nLet me start with the limits to growthpropaganda.Here I use the most unvar-nished,unpleasant form the systematicdissemination of falsehoods in order toachieve purposes.Many purposesachieved by the limits to growth prop-aganda have been good in the sense thatthey created a greater awareness of publicissues.  \nThe limits to growth people say that ifcurrent growth rates continue for 200years,we will run into trouble.They areexactly right.For the last 25 years,currentgrowth rates have been at about 5 percent  \nwhich means world population doublesevery 14 years.That is a factor of roughly  \n20,000 in say 200 years.Does anyonethink we can achieve 20,000 times thecurrent world's gross national product;that the per capita income will be aboutS100 million per person?The moment yourealize that the population curves are notexponential but are S curves,then youlook at problems like carbon dioxide andchanging weather very differently.Whatthe limits to growth people seem to havemissed completely is that there are naturalforces at work today slowing down growthat a high level.The Institute believes thatthe world population will settle out atabout 10 billion;$200 trillion gross worldproduct;$20,000 per capita income.That's a very wealthy world and it is sus-tainable.  \n## Current Controversies\n\nThere has been a lot of data come in thelast few years which indicates that ourprognosis is about right.  \nThe following issues are at the center ofcurrent controversies and are thus verytroublesome for the present and the im-mediate future.However,we believethere is—or could be—a surprisingly largeconsensus concerning their shape andpossible solution.Thus,the current de-bate is very misleading,and drains off in-tellectual energies which could better bedevoted to the great issues below.At the  \n(Continued on nex pagei  \n\n| OFFICERS OF THE CLUB  \u003Cbr>The Commonwealth  \u003Cbr>Bradley B.Garretson……  …President  \u003Cbr>Renee Rubin…………Vice President  \u003Cbr>Published every Monday by the  \u003Cbr>John R.Shuman.Chmn.Exec.Committee  \u003Cbr>Commonwealth Club of California  \u003Cbr>Benjamin Biaggini…   ……Secretary  \u003Cbr>681 Market Street  \u003Cbr>Richard Crass ……     …Treasurer  \u003Cbr>San Francisco,California 94105  \u003Cbr>Michael J.Brassington.Executive Director  \u003Cbr>(415)362-4903  \u003Cbr>GOVERNORS OF THE CLUB 1978  \u003Cbr>Editor:Jane M.Rumolo  ","cbCaidI5vExid421","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidI5vExid421","pdf",2517761,13,"English","# Advanced Ticket Sale Luncheon\n## 47TH Annual Literature Awards\n## Can Democracy Survive Its Crusaders? \"I Think Not,\" says Kahn\n## Limits to Growth\n## Current Controversies\n## Industrialization Process Does Have a Happy Ending","[{\"question\":\"How do reservations work for the Advanced Ticket Sale Luncheon?\",\"answer\":\"Advance tickets are required, and unpaid reservations are cancelled at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, June 14. Payments are handled by mail check to the Commonwealth Club or by calling the listed reservation number.\"},{\"question\":\"Which person is featured for the 47th Annual Literature Awards?\",\"answer\":\"The event features Alex Haley, author of ROOTS, along with listed gold and silver medal winners.\"},{\"question\":\"What topics are discussed in the included addresses and sections?\",\"answer\":\"The document includes sections on whether democracy can survive its crusaders, the limits to growth and population trends, and current controversies tied to long-term issues.\"}]","The Commonwealth - Advanced Ticket Sale Luncheon - 47th Annual Literature Awards | PDF",1790643032]