[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-41127-en":3,"doc-seo-41127-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":95},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},41127,7971461741311,"Ophelia","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/74000253aff267980c6?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779345379180704826",8,"Research & Report","The Causes of Ukrainian Famine Mortality, 1932-33","Large, unique panel data are used to examine the causes of Ukrainian famine mortality (Holodomor) in 1932-33 and to document multiple new findings. Ukraine had sufficient food in 1932 to prevent famine, yet mortality rose among areas with higher shares of ethnic Ukrainians and was not explained by regional food productivity. Similar patterns appear across the Soviet Union, strengthened by migration restrictions, rising grain procurement alongside falling grain retention, and anti-Ukrainian policy bias accounting for most of the mortality effect.","NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES  \nTHE CAUSES OF UKRAINIAN FAMINE MORTALITY, 1932-33  \nAndrei Markevich  \nNatalya Naumenko  \nNancy Qian  \nWorking Paper 29089  \n[http://www.nber.org/papers/w29089](http://www.nber.org/papers/w29089)  \nNATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH  \n1050 Massachusetts Avenue  \nCambridge, MA 02138  \nJuly 2021, Revised May 2023  \nPreviously circulated as “The Political-Economic Causes of the Soviet Great Famine, 1932–33.”We thank Daron Acemoglu, Maxim Ananyev, Volha Charnysh, Michael Ellman, Ruben Enikolopov, Jeff Frieden, Scott Gehlbach, Mikhail Golosov, Sergei Guriev, Mark Harrison, Oleg Khlevniuk, Alexey Makarin, Victor Malein, Joel Mokyr, Cormac O’Grada, Elias Papaioannou, Steven Nafziger, Maria Petrova, Sakari Saaritsa, Torsten Santavirta, Marco Tabellini, Chris Udry and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya for their insights; the participants of the Harvard/MIT Development Workshop, Harvard Political Economy Workshop, NYU Development Workshop, LSE STICERD Applied Workshop, Northwestern Economic History Workshop, USC Development Workshop, Fudan University SOE Applied Workshop, Trinity College Applied Economics Workshop, CERGEEI Applied Economics Workshop, EIEF Workshop, HECER (Helsinki Center of Economic Research) Labor and Public Economics seminar, Helsinki economic and social history seminar, Northwestern Economic History Lunch, Northwestern Development Lunch, George Mason Economic History Lunch, the NBER Political Economy Workshop, the Ridge Conference, the ASSA/AEA On the Role of and Culture and Community 2020 session, 2020 Summer Workshop in the Economic History and Historical Political Economy of Russia, Kiel/ CEPR Conference on Geopolitics. For excellent research assistance, we thank Pavel Bacherikov, Nikita Karpov, Ivan Korolev, Sergio Lopez-Araiza Bejar, Kaman Lyu, Carlo Medici, Ludovica Mosillo. All mistakes are our own. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.  \nNBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.  \n© 2021 by Andrei Markevich, Natalya Naumenko, and Nancy Qian. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source.  \nThe Causes of Ukrainian Famine Mortality, 1932-33 Andrei Markevich, Natalya Naumenko, and Nancy Qian NBER Working Paper No. 29089  \nJuly 2021, Revised May 2023 JEL No. N14,O1,O13,P16  \nABSTRACT  \nWe construct large, unique panel data to study the causes of Ukrainian famine mortality (Holodomor) during 1932-33 and document several new facts: i) Ukraine (the Soviet Union) produced enough food in 1932 to avoid famine in Ukraine (the Soviet Union); ii) mortality was increasing in the pre-famine ethnic Ukrainian population share and unrelated to food productivity across regions; iii) this pattern exists across the Soviet Union, even outside of Ukraine; iv) the pattern was similar at different administrative levels; v) migration restrictions exacerbated mortality; vi) actual and planned grain procurement were increasing, while actual and planned grain retention (production minus procurement) were decreasing in the ethnic Ukrainian population share across regions. Anti-Ukrainian bias in Soviet policy explains up to 92% of famine mortality in Ukraine and 77% in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus; approximately half of the total effect comes from bias in the centrally planned food procurement policy.  \nAndrei Markevich  \nNew Economics School  \n45 Skolkovskoe shosse Moscow  \nRussia [ammarkevich@gmail.com](ammarkevich@gmail.com)  \nNatalya Naumenko Department of Economics George Mason University Carow Hall, Office 10 4500 Roberts Rd Faifax, VA 22032  \n[nata.naumenko@gmail.com](nata.naumenko@gmail.com)  \nNancy Qian  \nKellog","cbCainpmZpKLpc2D","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCainpmZpKLpc2D","pdf",2016047,4,1,70,"English","en",105,"# Introduction\n## Data and empirical approach\n## Key findings on mortality patterns\n## Mechanisms: migration restrictions and procurement\n## Policy bias and contribution estimates\n## Background and debate on causes","[{\"question\":\"What data and approach does the paper use to study Holodomor mortality?\",\"answer\":\"The paper constructs large, unique panel data to investigate the causes of Ukrainian famine mortality during 1932-33 and to document new empirical facts across regions and administrative levels.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the paper argue Ukraine could have avoided famine in 1932?\",\"answer\":\"It reports that Ukraine produced enough food in 1932 to avoid famine within Ukraine, even though mortality still increased, indicating the crisis was not driven simply by insufficient total food production.\"},{\"question\":\"Which mechanisms does the paper identify as worsening mortality?\",\"answer\":\"It finds that migration restrictions exacerbated mortality and that actual and planned grain procurement rose while grain retention (production minus procurement) fell in areas with higher ethnic Ukrainian population shares.\"},{\"question\":\"How much of famine mortality does the paper attribute to anti-Ukrainian policy bias?\",\"answer\":\"The paper estimates anti-Ukrainian bias in Soviet policy explains up to 92% of famine mortality in Ukraine and 77% across Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, with about half of the total effect coming from bias in centrally planned food procurement policy.\"}]",1783319008,176,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":90,"head_meta":92,"extra_data":94,"updated_unix":28},"the-causes-of-ukrainian-famine-mortality-1932-33","",{"@graph":36,"@context":89},[37,53,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-causes-of-ukrainian-famine-mortality-1932-33/41127/",{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":41,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-06",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81,85],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What data and approach does the paper use to study Holodomor mortality?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The paper constructs large, unique panel data to investigate the causes of Ukrainian famine mortality during 1932-33 and to document new empirical facts across regions and administrative levels.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the paper argue Ukraine could have avoided famine in 1932?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"It reports that Ukraine produced enough food in 1932 to avoid famine within Ukraine, even though mortality still increased, indicating the crisis was not driven simply by insufficient total food production.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which mechanisms does the paper identify as worsening mortality?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"It finds that migration restrictions exacerbated mortality and that actual and planned grain procurement rose while grain retention (production minus procurement) fell in areas with higher ethnic Ukrainian population shares.",{"name":86,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":87},"How much of famine mortality does the paper attribute to anti-Ukrainian policy bias?",{"text":88,"@type":76},"The paper estimates anti-Ukrainian bias in Soviet policy explains up to 92% of famine mortality in Ukraine and 77% across Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, with about half of the total effect coming from bias in centrally planned food procurement policy.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":91,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":93,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":96},[97,101,105,108,113,118,123,126,131,134,138],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Story & 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