[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-324917-105":59,"doc-detail-324917-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":124,"head_meta":126,"extra_data":128,"updated_unix":130},105,"en","the-anatomy-of-an-oil-price-shock-oil-shocks-and-their-impact-on-us-inflation","The Anatomy of an Oil Price Shock - Oil shocks and their impact on U.S. inflation","","Discusses how sudden oil price shocks, defined as one-time increases in the real price of crude oil and related derivatives like gasoline, are often mistakenly associated with inflation. Argues that oil shocks do not cause persistent inflation because inflation requires monetary authorities to sustain rising prices through money creation. Traces an oil shock across U.S. sectors using input-output analysis and finds that while inflation does not result, significant sectoral price increases and other economic repercussions can follow.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/the-anatomy-of-an-oil-price-shock-oil-shocks-and-their-impact-on-us-inflation/324917/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/the-anatomy-of-an-oil-price-shock-oil-shocks-and-their-impact-on-us-inflation/324917.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Valentina","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-29","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",14,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"Why do many people associate oil shocks with inflation?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"Because historical patterns can suggest that doubling oil prices coincides with double-digit price increases, reinforcing a perception of causality. The text argues this is “guilt by association.”","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"Do oil price shocks directly cause inflation?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"No. The document explains that inflation is a persistent rise sustained year after year, which requires monetary authority actions that create too much money.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"What method is used to study the effects of an oil shock?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"The analysis traces price effects through individual U.S. sectors using a detailed input-output table, based on the 2003 U.S. input-output structure.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},324917,1790144540,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":24,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},13056703020460,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/be000253dac470eee5d?_k=1778207105932848923","by Eric O'N.Fisher and Kathryn G.Marshall  \nThe piceofa bare ofecrude oildoubled within a few months last year.Although prices have been easing lately,for thosewho paid more than $3 for agallon of gas,the memory is not likelyto fade quickly.But worries abouthigher gas prices don't end at the pump.Oil price shocks—sudden and sharpincreases in the price of oil and itsderivatives like gasoline—are associatedin the popular mindset with an unavoid-able descent into inflation.Askjustabout anyone about theinflation of the1970s,for example,and they're likelyto associate it with the oil crisis thatoccurred early in the decade.  \nMany economists have also held theview that oil shocks can lead toinflation—although not directly orinevitably,but because of the waymonetary policy responds when thereis a shock.  \nWhat do the latest round ofoil-priceincreases bode for inflation?We tracethe path of an oil shock through allsectors of the U.S.economy and demon-strate that such shocks do not causeinflation.They can,however,causeother unpleasant economic repercus-sions.We identify the sectors that sufferthe highest long-run price increases afteran oil shock and find that they areamong the most capital-intensive in theeconomy,suggesting that an oil shockmay actually increase the relative prof-itability of capital in a few sectors thatcan pass increased costs onto con-sumers.One reassuring result ofouranalysis is that it seems likely that oureconomy may now be less dependenton oil,so that this time around,theconsequences of an oil shock may beless severe.  \n# The Anatomy of an Oil Price Shock\n\n■ Guilt by AssociationFigure I presents some historical data onoil prices and inflation in the UnitedStates.A cursory glance at the figuresuggests that a doubling ofoil pricesleads to double-digit price increases.It'sno wonder people associateoil shockswith inflation.  \nBut an oil price shock is anincrease inhe real price of a commodity that willbe passed on to other sectors of theecon-omy.Since the shock is a one-timeincrease in the price of oil,by definitionit cannot be considered inflationary.Inflation,insteadis a persistent rise inprices,sustained year after year.Such apersistent rise can only be caused by themonetary authority,when it creates toomuch money.  \nIt is possible that the Fed has respondedto past oil shocks by creating inflationintentionally,to ease the blow of the oilshock—or accidentally,because the oilshock distorted information about howmuch money the economy needed.Some economists argue that is the case.But that oil price shocks have beenviewed as inflationary is really guilt byassociation.  \nTo be sure,even if an oil price shockdoesn't cause inflation,the consequencesofone can be severe.Because so manyother commodities depend on oil for theirmanufacture or distribution,an oil shockcan ripple through the economy,raisingthe prices of many goods and services.Those higher prices,in turn,can causepcople hardship and force adjustmentselsewhere in the economy.  \nOi price shocks do not cause infla-tion,no matter how close the connec-tion seems to be in our practical expe-rience.But they can cause significantprice increases throughout the econ-omy.Tracing the way a sharpincrease in the price ofcrude oilaffects prices in various industrialsectors of the U.S.economy suggestshow big these increases are.Fortu-nately,our economy seems betterprepared now to weather such shocksthan in the 1970s and 1980s.  \n■ Commodity Price EffectsWhat are the aggregate price effects ofan oil shock,isolated from the monetarypolicy response?To answer that ques-tion,we follow the price effects ofashock as it moves through individualsectors of the U.S.economy,using adetailed input-output table.In principle,this table shows how much input variousindustry sectors require from other sec-tors to produce their output.The auto-mobile sector,for example,mightrequire material from the steel sectoramounting to 30 percent of the total costof producing a car,material from theplastics","cbCaibr43l7acYaB","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibr43l7acYaB","pdf",1163576,"English","# The Anatomy of an Oil Price Shock\n## Guilt by Association\n## Commodity Price Effects","[{\"question\":\"Why do many people associate oil shocks with inflation?\",\"answer\":\"Because historical patterns can suggest that doubling oil prices coincides with double-digit price increases, reinforcing a perception of causality. The text argues this is “guilt by association.”\"},{\"question\":\"Do oil price shocks directly cause inflation?\",\"answer\":\"No. The document explains that inflation is a persistent rise sustained year after year, which requires monetary authority actions that create too much money.\"},{\"question\":\"What method is used to study the effects of an oil shock?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis traces price effects through individual U.S. sectors using a detailed input-output table, based on the 2003 U.S. input-output structure.\"}]","The Anatomy of an Oil Price Shock - Oil shocks and their impact on U.S. inflation | PDF",1789969216,13]