[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109374-en":3,"doc-seo-109374-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109374,549758252649,"Ivy","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/8000253669c5317157?_k=1778319167496531819",8,"Research & Report","Thailand - Country Climate and Development Report 3 - Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change","This chapter assesses how Thailand’s economic and social damages from climate change can be reduced through climate adaptation. It first estimates potential economic impacts over the next 25 years under a business-as-usual scenario with no additional adaptation. An adaptation scenario then evaluates targeted policies and investments—such as flood mitigation, water security, and coastal protection—to limit physical impacts. Results indicate substantial GDP losses by mid-century, slower growth, and strong heat-related labor productivity declines, with key sub-group vulnerabilities and compounding costs of inaction.","[Cover Page]  \nand Development Report  \n2025  \nPub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nThailand  \n3 Adapting to the physical impacts of climate change  \nThis chapter explores how the economic and social impacts of climate change on Thailand (as set out in Section 2.2) might be reduced by climate adaptation actions. To start with, the potential economic impacts of climate change over the next 25 years are estimated under a “business-as-usual”(BAU) scenario, which assumes no additional adaptation measures are implemented. An “adaptation”scenario is then used to assess how targeted adaptation policies and investments could reduce climate-related damages and influence broader economic outcomes. This “adaptation” scenario incorporates investments in flood mitigation, water security, coastal protection , and other measures designed to enhance Thailand’s capacity to limit and adapt to the physical impacts of climate change (Annex 1 provides details on the modelling approach) .  \nThe modelling conducted for this CCDR shows that climate change could have substantial impacts on the Thai economy over the next 25 years, making it much more difficult to achieve high-income targets. The magnitudes of impact vary across the two macro-economic models used in this CCDR owing to differences in modeling assumptions, and also vary from previously published estimates.1 But both models are consistent in showing that climate change could substantially lower aggregate output in the business-as-usual scenario (relative to a baseline scenario without climate change) by mid-century. The size of the 2050 GDP impact in the pessimistic (dry/hot) scenario is centered around -7 percent for MFMod and -14 percent in E3-Thailand. This implies that in the coming two to three decades climate change could reduce annual average growth rates by half a percentage point or more, making it much more difficult to achieve already ambitious high income targets. Despite uncertainties, both models are consistent on the compounding effect of climate change, i.e. , the cost of inaction under the business-as-usual scenario grows larger with passing time. Both models are also consistent in picking up heat related labor productivity loss as the strongest mechanism of impact, impacting workers across all sectors and in all parts of the country.  \nThe annual average impacts set out in Figure 3.1 may understate the physical threats of climate change in Thailand. First, the results only estimate the marginal impacts from additional climate change over the next 25 years, not the impacts of climate change already realized. For instance, the additional impacts from flooding attributable to future changes in climate do not capture the total estimated impacts of flooding on the Thai economy, which are estimated to average around USD 18 billion or about 3 percent of GDP per year (providing a key rationale for flood mitigation investments) . Second, while the impacts of flooding are relatively modest in annual average terms, flooding shocks could have a much larger impact in years in which tail risk events (such as the 2011 floods) materialize (Box 3.1) . Climate change will also increase the risk of extreme events and scenarios that, for example, could have implications for the viability of some urban areas in and around Bangkok, triggering substantial costs which are not accounted for in the modelling.  \nAverage economy-wide effects also conceal sizeable impacts on certain demographic, social and economic sub-groups. Households with more concentrated income sources and lower savings and other forms of assets are more vulnerable to climate-induced hazards such as floods and droughts. Empirical analysis of socio-economic and geo-physical data over the 2007-2021 period shows that precipitation shortfalls have had a significant negative impact on aggregate household welfare,  \n1 Two macroeconomic models are use","cbCaimj7zemKfdaF","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimj7zemKfdaF","pdf",1516057,7,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Adapting to the physical impacts of climate change\n## Modeling approach and scenarios (BAU vs adaptation)\n## Macroeconomic impacts on Thailand’s economy over 25 years\n## Sector and labor productivity transmission (heat)\n## Physical threats and limitations of annual average estimates\n## Distributional impacts across demographic and social sub-groups\n## Vulnerabilities in rural areas and specific communities","[{\"question\":\"What is the difference between the “business-as-usual” and “adaptation” scenarios in this chapter?\",\"answer\":\"The business-as-usual scenario assumes no additional adaptation measures over the next 25 years. The adaptation scenario evaluates targeted policies and investments—like flood mitigation, water security, and coastal protection—to reduce climate-related damages and influence broader economic outcomes.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the modelling suggest about Thailand’s GDP impacts by mid-century?\",\"answer\":\"Both macro-economic models indicate that climate change could substantially lower aggregate output under business-as-usual by mid-century. The pessimistic (dry/hot) scenario centers on about -7% in MFMod and -14% in E3-Thailand for 2050.\"},{\"question\":\"Why might the chapter say that annual average impacts can understate physical threats?\",\"answer\":\"The results estimate marginal impacts from additional climate change over the next 25 years, not total impacts already realized. Flooding shocks can be much larger in tail-risk years (e.g., the 2011 floods), and extreme-event risks and urban viability costs may not be fully captured in the modelling.\"}]","Thailand - Country Climate and Development Report 3 - Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change | PDF",1784479106,53,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"thailand-country-climate-and-development-report-3-adapting-to-the-physical-impacts-of-climate-change","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/thailand-country-climate-and-development-report-3-adapting-to-the-physical-impacts-of-climate-change/109374/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-04","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What is the difference between the “business-as-usual” and “adaptation” scenarios in this chapter?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"The business-as-usual scenario assumes no additional adaptation measures over the next 25 years. The adaptation scenario evaluates targeted policies and investments—like flood mitigation, water security, and coastal protection—to reduce climate-related damages and influence broader economic outcomes.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"What does the modelling suggest about Thailand’s GDP impacts by mid-century?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"Both macro-economic models indicate that climate change could substantially lower aggregate output under business-as-usual by mid-century. The pessimistic (dry/hot) scenario centers on about -7% in MFMod and -14% in E3-Thailand for 2050.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"Why might the chapter say that annual average impacts can understate physical threats?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"The results estimate marginal impacts from additional climate change over the next 25 years, not total impacts already realized. Flooding shocks can be much larger in tail-risk years (e.g., the 2011 floods), and extreme-event risks and urban viability costs may not be fully captured in the modelling.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,112,117,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":108,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":109,"show_sort_weight":110,"slug":111},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":113,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":114,"show_sort_weight":115,"slug":116},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]