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This multicountry, multicommunity observational study analyzes time-series mortality and mean temperature data from 699 communities in 34 countries during 1986–2015. Two-stage modeling estimates community-specific MMT and MMTP over subperiods, then pools temporally varying effects via mixed-effects meta-regressions overall and by climate zone, region, and country.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/temporal-change-in-minimum-mortality-temperature-under-changing-climate-a-multicountry-multicommunity-observational-study-spanning-1986-2015/270942/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/temporal-change-in-minimum-mortality-temperature-under-changing-climate-a-multicountry-multicommunity-observational-study-spanning-1986-2015/270942.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Ezra","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-17","2026-09-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":39},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What do minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and MMT percentile (MMTP) represent?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"They indicate population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures by describing the ambient temperature associated with minimum mortality and its percentile definition.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"How was the study designed to assess temporal changes?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"It used two-stage analysis: quasi-Poisson regression to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community across subperiods, followed by mixed-effects meta-regressions to pool temporally varying estimates.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"What were the main findings on temporal changes and their geographic pattern?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"MMT and MMTP increased overall, but temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions, with different directions by region.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},270942,1789458694,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":39,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":52,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":129,"read_time":143,"preview_page_count":4},1099514068035,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c","Downloaded from [http://journals.lww.com/environepidem by BhDMf5ePHKav1zEoum1tQfN4a](http://journals.lww.com/environepidem by BhDMf5ePHKav1zEoum1tQfN4a)+kJLhEZgbsIHo4XMi0 hCywCX 1AWnYQp/ I l Qr HD3i 3 D0OdRyi 7TvS Fl4Cf3VC4/OAVpDDa8KKGKV0Ymy+78= on 11/04/2024  \nOriginal Research Article  \n ISEE  \nENVIRONMENTAL  \nEPIDEMIOLOGY  \nTemporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate  \nA multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015 Daewon Yanga , Masahiro Hashizumeb,c , Aurelio Tobíasc,d , Yasushi Hondae , Dominic Royef,g , Jaemin Ohh , Tran Ngoc Dangi , Yoonhee Kimj , Rosana Abrutzkyk , Yuming Guol,m , Shilu Tongn,o,p,q ,  \nMicheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelhor , Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldivas , Eric Lavignet,u ,  \nPatricia Matus Correav , Nicolás Valdés Ortegav , Samuel Osoriow , Jan Kyselýx,y , Aleš Urbanx,y , Hans Orruz , Ene Indermittez , Jouni Jaakkolaaa,bb , Niilo Rytiaa,bb , Mathilde Pascalcc , Veronika Huberdd,ee , Alexandra Schneideree ,  \nKlea Katsouyanniff,gg , Antonis Analitisff , Alireza Entezarihh , Fatemeh Mayvanehhh , Patrick Goodmanii , Ariana Zekajj , Paola Michelozzikk , Francesca de’Donatokk , Barrak Alahmadll , Magali Hurtado Diazmm , César De la Cruz Valenciamm , Ala Overcenconn , Danny Houthuijsoo , Caroline Amelingoo , Shilpa Raopp , Baltazar Nunesqq,rr , Joana Madureirass,tt,uu , Iulian Horia Holo-bâcvv , Noah Scovronickww , Fiorella Acquaottaxx , Ho Kimyy , Whanhee Leezz , Carmen Íñiguezaaa,bbb , Bertil Forsbergccc , Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabreraddd,eee , Martina S. Ragettlifff,ggg , Yue-Liang Leon Guohhh,iii,jjj , Shih Chun Panjjj , Shanshan Lil,m , Francesco Serakkk , Antonella Zanobettill , Joel Schwartzll , Ben Armstronglll , Antonio Gasparrinilll , Yeonseung Chungh,*  \n\n| Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986– |\n| --- |\n| Daily\u003Cbr>2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country.\u003Cbr>Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17 .9, 21. 1) to 20.3 °C (18 .5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68 .3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71 .0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P \u003C 0 .001) . Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0 .02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0 .46, P = 0 .05) . MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3 .45, P = 0 .02) and South Europe (LS = −2 .86, P = 0 .05) . Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations. |\n| Keywords: Minimum mortality temperature; Climate change; Human adaptation; Temporal change; Heterogeneity |\n\naDepartment of Information and Statistics, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea; bDepartment of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; cSchool of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan; dInstitute of Environmental As","cbCaipQhBig8HXiX","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipQhBig8HXiX","pdf",1290247,"English","# Background\n# Methods\n## Statistical analysis approach\n# Results\n# Conclusions\n# Keywords","[{\"question\":\"What do minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and MMT percentile (MMTP) represent?\",\"answer\":\"They indicate population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures by describing the ambient temperature associated with minimum mortality and its percentile definition.\"},{\"question\":\"How was the study designed to assess temporal changes?\",\"answer\":\"It used two-stage analysis: quasi-Poisson regression to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community across subperiods, followed by mixed-effects meta-regressions to pool temporally varying estimates.\"},{\"question\":\"What were the main findings on temporal changes and their geographic pattern?\",\"answer\":\"MMT and MMTP increased overall, but temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions, with different directions by region.\"}]","Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate - A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015 | PDF",25]