[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109645-en":3,"doc-seo-109645-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":27,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},109645,7971461740909,"Levi","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Tajikistan: Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - May 2020 - Risk assessment","Joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis for Tajikistan assesses the country’s risk of debt distress as high, with the overall risk remaining high versus the December 2019 assessment. The document projects a temporary spike in public debt above 50% of GDP in 2020 linked to COVID-19, but expects stabilization under fiscal consolidation and a commitment to avoid non-concessional borrowing. Under the baseline, external indicators breach thresholds, while a medium-term consolidation program is projected to bring risks near or below thresholds by 2030.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nREPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nMay 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), JuhaKähkönen and Martin Sommer (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nTajikistan: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis  \n\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| --- | --- |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis joint World Bank/ IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) 1 indicates that Tajikistan’s overall risk of debt distress remains high (unchanged from the December 2019 DSA) . Public debt is expected to spike above 50 percent of GDP in 2020 in reaction to the outbreak of the COVID- 19 pandemic. However, based on the authorities ’ commitment to fiscal consolidation, debt stabilizes over the medium term and is assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense (changed from the December 2019 DSA where debt was on a rising path).Under the baseline, two debt indicators breach thresholds, leading to a high external risk rating. With planned medium-term fiscal consolidation program (including adjustment of 2 percent of GDP in 2021-2022) and the commitment to avoid non-concessional borrowing, these indicators are projected to stabilize below or near respective thresholds by 2030. Tajikistan’s debt is vulnerable, especially to export shocksand contingent fiscal liabilities. A more severe or prolonged COVID-19 shock could heighten vulnerabilities. Medium-and long-term fiscal consolidation, avoiding non-concessional external borrowing, diversifying exports, and containing contingent liabilities from SOEs would help reduce vulnerabilities and stabilize debt.  \n1 Tajikistan is assessed to have a medium debt-carrying capacity. CI rating for Tajikistan is 2.90, which is based on the October 2019 WEO and the World Bank’s 2018 CPIA.  \nCOVERAGE AND BACKGROUND ON PUBLIC DEBT  \nBackground on Debt and Debt Coverage  \n1. In recent years, external andfinancialsectorvulnerabilities have contributed to an increase in debt. Tajikistan’s external public-and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt rose from 24 percent of GDP in 2014 to near 36 percent of GDP at end-2019 mainly as a consequence of a sizable depreciation of the somoni as well as the issuance of a $500 million sovereign bond in 2017. Domestic PPG debt also increased from 3½ percent of GDP at end-2014 to 8 percent of GDP at end-2019, owing to a 6 percent of GDP recapitalization of banks in December 2016. As a result, the total PPG debt increased from 27½ percent of GDP in 2014 to 44.6 percent of GDP in 2019.  \n2. External debt made up the bulk of the total of PPG debt in 2019. External PPG debt accounted for about 81 percent of total PPG debt. Over 80 percent of external PPG debt was owed to multilateral and bilateral creditors. The single largest creditor was China, which held over 40 percent of the total PPG external debt. The Eurobond of USD500 million issued in September2017, with a maturity of 10 years, carried an interest rate of 7.125 percent.  \n3. The NBT is the main creditor and holder of largely non-marketable domestic government debt. Most of the government securities held by the NBT were issued at significantly below market terms, with someinterest ratesas low as0.99 percent. Since2016, the government has been accumulating interest and principal arrears to theNBT. In 2019, the arrears on domestic government securities issued for the NBT recapitalization were cleared after the NBT extended new credit to the government at a 2 percent interest rate with a one-year maturity. However, the government continues to run arrears against the NBT on bonds issued to recapitalize commercial banks during the 2015-16 shocks.  \n4. This DSA covers the cent","cbCaiurSIshS3DUV","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiurSIshS3DUV","pdf",541731,1,17,"English","en",105,"# Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Baseline projections and thresholds\n# Coverage and background on public debt\n## Debt levels and drivers\n## Creditor structure and domestic debt dynamics\n## Scope and exclusions (non-guaranteed SOE liabilities, contingencies, PPP-related guarantees)\n# Background on macro forecasts\n## Baseline assumptions and macroeconomic framework","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed overall risk of debt distress for Tajikistan?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as High and remains unchanged from the December 2019 DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is public debt expected to rise above 50% of GDP in 2020?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt is expected to spike above 50% of GDP in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak and its economic impact.\"},{\"question\":\"Which external debt indicators breach thresholds under the baseline?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline, two debt indicators breach their thresholds, which contributes to the high external risk rating.\"}]","Tajikistan: Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - May 2020 - Risk assessment | PDF",1784481710,43,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":28},"tajikistan-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-may-2020-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":36,"@context":85},[37,54,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/tajikistan-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-may-2020-risk-assessment/109645/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":41,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the assessed overall risk of debt distress for Tajikistan?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as High and remains unchanged from the December 2019 DSA.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why is public debt expected to rise above 50% of GDP in 2020?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Public debt is expected to spike above 50% of GDP in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak and its economic impact.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which external debt indicators breach thresholds under the baseline?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Under the baseline, two debt indicators breach their thresholds, which contributes to the high external risk rating.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":47,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]