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It argues that credible deals—supported by existing interdependencies or external measures such as conditional debt relief and UN security monitoring—can reduce the risk of violent conflict while sustaining stable north-south economic relations.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & 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referendum date is discussed for southern independence in Sudan?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"The document states the referendum on southern independence is scheduled for 9 January 2011.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"Why are post-referendum arrangements considered decisive?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"The paper argues that negotiations on post-referendum arrangements strongly affect the risk of violent conflict linked to southern secession and the future stability of north-south relations.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"How did north-south negotiations progress and who is involved?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"Negotiations began in July and have taken place behind closed doors between the NCP and SPLM, with limited use so far of options such as AUHIP mediation or external 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 \nWolfram Lacher  \nIn Sudan, all eyes are currently on the preparations for the referendum on southern independence, scheduled for 9 January 2011. The southern government and international actors are expecting a clear vote for independence. Most attention is currently focussed on disputes between the central and southern governments over the referendum itself. Meanwhile, negotiations are taking place behind the scenes on arrangements for the post-referendum era. These negotiations will have a decisive impact on the risk of violent conflict associated with southern secession. Deals could be based on existing interdependencies between the two sides, with external actors backing up such arrangements. Where there are no such interdependencies, external assistance can support compromises between the two sides. Possible instruments include conditional debt relief and a UN mission to monitor security arrangements. Regardless of the referendum’s outcome, economic interdependencies provide opportunities for stable northsouth relations.  \nGerman Institute for International and Security Affairs  \nSWP Com  \nThe ruling parties in northern and southern Sudan – Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)– as well as international actors in Sudan currently are almost exclusively focussed on the referendum on southern independence, which is due to conclude the transitional period set out by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) . The situation is dire; over the past months, SPLM and NCP leaders have waged a war of words and exchanged accusations, while time is running out for the logistical and administrative prepara-  \ntions for the referendum. Concerns are growing over whether (and under which conditions) the referendum will take place in January, and whether the NCPcontrolled central government will accept its result. The risk of a war of secession would grow significantly if Khartoum attempted seriously to delay or block the vote, or reject its result. The NCP leadership is aware of this, despite the fact that it is undeniably resorting to delaying tactics. Despite all delays to the referendum timetable, the SPLM and external actors remain committed to the January date. The United  \nStates, in particular, has in recent weeks vehemently insisted that the referendum be held as planned and in a transparent manner, and warned of the risk of renewed north-south conflict.  \nBehind the scenes  \nIt is not surprising that the national and international actors are focussing on the difficult preparations for the referendum. Nevertheless, the almost exclusive focus on the January vote threatens to divert attention away from the negotiations underway between the NCP and SPLM on post-referendum arrangements. Whether the parties are able to progress and strike viable deals in these negotiations is of crucial importance for the referendum and the associated potential for conflict. While doubts had long persisted concerning the NCP’s willingness to accept southern secession at all, this is not the case anymore: in the five years during which the south has been controlled by a government that has gradually curbed the influence of the central government, and in many respects has already been acting as a sovereign actor, the NCP has gradually resigned itself to the idea of southern secession. Among other things, this assessment is supported by the fact that Khartoum, though begrudgingly and slowly, eventually implemented the key aspects of the CPA and allowed the agreement to reach its decisive phase, the referendum. For the central government, the costs of preventing secession by force would be prohibitive, such as in the form of deepening international isolation and the emergence of a second front, in addition to Darfur (where the situation would likely deteriorate as a corollary of renewed conflict ","cbCaiixJD5uOej0h","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiixJD5uOej0h","pdf",99422,"English","# Sudan: Negotiating Southern Independence\n## High Stakes in the Talks on Post-referendum Arrangements\n## Behind the Scenes\n## North-south Negotiations","[{\"question\":\"What referendum date is discussed for southern independence in Sudan?\",\"answer\":\"The document states the referendum on southern independence is scheduled for 9 January 2011.\"},{\"question\":\"Why are post-referendum arrangements considered decisive?\",\"answer\":\"The paper argues that negotiations on post-referendum arrangements strongly affect the risk of violent conflict linked to southern secession and the future stability of north-south relations.\"},{\"question\":\"How did north-south negotiations progress and who is involved?\",\"answer\":\"Negotiations began in July and have taken place behind closed doors between the NCP and SPLM, with limited use so far of options such as AUHIP mediation or external consultants.\"}]","Sudan: Negotiating Southern Independence - High Stakes in the Talks on Post-referendum Arrangements | PDF",18]