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Recession?","","1995年美国州层面就业增速放缓并引发是否衰退的讨论。文章评估1995年最终的州就业数据，指出导致就业短期波动的因素包括不利天气延迟的新增岗位、政府停摆导致调查日期重排，以及对州就业统计的再基准修订。作者强调州数据对分析全国经济健康度的重要性，并说明再基准程序可能改变对减速幅度的感知。",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/state-employment-1995-slowing-to-a-recession/325572/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/state-employment-1995-slowing-to-a-recession/325572.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Ezra","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-18","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":19},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"文章如何解释1995年就业增速放缓的原因？","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"文章认为就业增速放缓与新增岗位受天气影响的延后、可能的调查日期重排以及州层面的再基准修订有关。","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"为什么作者强调需要关注州就业数据来评估全国经济健康？",{"text":117,"@type":113},"作者指出再基准修订在州层面完成、州层面的就业疲弱时点与范围有助于判断全国经济状况，同时区域经济差异也会影响公众对全国经济的看法。",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"再基准（rebenchmarking）流程在文中扮演什么角色？",{"text":121,"@type":113},"再基准旨在补偿BLS调查覆盖面不足（例如新设公司或设施的岗位未被直接纳入）。该过程会对就业序列产生从小幅下修到大幅上修的影响，从而改变对减速严重程度的判断。","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},325572,1792168184,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":19,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":24,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},1099514068035,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c","# State Employment 1995:Slowing to a Recession?\n\nby Mark E.Schweitzer and Kristin M.Roberts  \nEmpoymemi 195ean wihabang and ended with a whimper,inspiringsome to prognosticate a recession.A Feb-ruary 1996 spurt in employment growth(with 631,000 newjobs added,the high-est monthly gain since 1983)has silencedmany of the bears.The sudden boomcame largely from new job starts thatwere delayed by bad weather or,possibly,missed when the government shutdownforced survey dates to be rescheduled.More subtly,the rebenchmarked stateemployment numbers have cast a rosierlight on 1995.  \nRecessions and state-level employmentdeclines are,in the simplest terms,al-most tautologically related:National re-cessions necessarily affect many states.However,both the severity and the tim-ing of recessions vary substantially at thestate level.In fact,our review showedthat a number of states were alreadyexhibiting signs of economic weaknessbefore the official start of every recentrecession,as dated by the NationalBureau of Economic Research(NBER).  \nIn this Economic Commentary,wereview the final 1995 state employmentfigures,with an eye toward appraisingthe health of the national economy.Wedo not investigate the interesting ques-tion of the effectiveness of state employ-ment changes as turning-point predic-tors,which would require a detailedstatistical analysis.Instead,we treat thestates as indicators of the extent of slow-ing employment gains.Why look at statefigures if our interests are national?  \nFirst,the annual rebenchmarking,whichcan dramatically change the history ofboth national and state employment fig-ures,is completed at the state levelmonths before the revised national num-bers are released.Second,the timing andbreadth of employment weakness at thestate level help analysts evaluate the na-tional economy's health.Finally,withoutregard to a national recession,there canbe substantial regional differences in thestrength of the local economy,whichprobably influences public opinion onthe strength of the national economy.  \n# ■ Rebenchmarked StateData and U.S.Employment\n\nAfter the first quarter of 1995,civiliannonfarm employment gains slowed dra-matically(see figure 1).On a year-over-year basis,net jobs growth dropped frommore than 3.1 percent in February 1995to just 1.5 percent in December.?Thesize and rate of this decline are consider-able,and parallel the declines in 1985and 1989,prior to the “bumpy landing”of the mid-eighties and the recession thatbegan in 1990.However,the nationalnumbers reveal little about changes inthe underlying employment patterns thatmight help us interpret last year's slow-down in employment growth.  \nBefore we can compare state employ-ment patterns to national changes,wehave to deal with one technical issue—the Bureau of Labor Statistics'(BLS)annual rebenchmarking process.Itspurpose is to compensate for the failureof the BLS survey,which covers ap-proximately 400,000 establishments,to  \nMarch 15,1996  \nIs there any indication ofa recession?The answer is clearly no.  \n—Joseph Stiglitz,Chairman,President's Council of Economic Advisors.USA Today,February 5,1996.  \nFederalReserve Chairman AlanGreenspan said the economy hadentered“a significant soft patch”butthe chances of avoiding a recession arestill “betterthan 50-50.”  \n—The Wall StreetJournal,  \nFebruary 22,1996.  \ninclude all employers and therefore allworkers.³The key missing component isjobscreated by newlyformed companiesor facilities,which are not initiallyincluded in the survey,but rather are esti-mated by state-specific adjustment fac-tors.In recent years,the rebenchmarkingprocess has yielded changes rangingfrom small reductions to additions ofover half a million workers(about 0.5percent of total employment).A particu-larly large addition might alter the seriesenough to change perceptions about theseverity of the recent slowdown.  \nWhile we have only a preliminary esti-mate of the rebenchmarked national fig-ure,the states'rebenchmarked numbers,released in March,al","cbCain26kSCHzTnY","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCain26kSCHzTnY","pdf",1265963,"English","# Rebenchmarked StateData and U.S.Employment\n## Identifying Weakness at the State Level","[{\"question\":\"文章如何解释1995年就业增速放缓的原因？\",\"answer\":\"文章认为就业增速放缓与新增岗位受天气影响的延后、可能的调查日期重排以及州层面的再基准修订有关。\"},{\"question\":\"为什么作者强调需要关注州就业数据来评估全国经济健康？\",\"answer\":\"作者指出再基准修订在州层面完成、州层面的就业疲弱时点与范围有助于判断全国经济状况，同时区域经济差异也会影响公众对全国经济的看法。\"},{\"question\":\"再基准（rebenchmarking）流程在文中扮演什么角色？\",\"answer\":\"再基准旨在补偿BLS调查覆盖面不足（例如新设公司或设施的岗位未被直接纳入）。该过程会对就业序列产生从小幅下修到大幅上修的影响，从而改变对减速严重程度的判断。\"}]","State Employment 1995:Slowing to a Recession? | PDF",1789970854,13]