[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-209295-en":3,"doc-seo-209295-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":27,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},209295,1374404737137,"Adam","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Stakes and Signals - An Empirical Investigation of Muddled Information in Standardized Testing","The paper studies how “muddled information” changes when standardized testing becomes more high-stakes. It asks whether the increased stakes improve a signal’s ability to predict long-run outcomes, despite incentives for gaming. Using Brazil’s ENEM rollout as a natural experiment, the analysis links exam records to national college and labor-market data. Results show higher stakes increase informational value for later outcomes, while also widening score gaps by income.","Stakes and Signals: An Empirical Investigation of Muddled Information in Standardized Testing  \nGermán Reyes  \nEvan Riehl  \nRuqing Xu  \nOctober 2023  \nAbstract. Muddled information models posit that higher stakes increase a signal’s informativeness about individuals’ gaming ability and decrease its informativeness for their natural ability. An important question is whether this muddling of abilities degrades the predictive value of a signal for long-run outcomes. We evaluate this question in the context of standardized testing by exploiting the introduction of Brazil’s national college admission exam, the ENEM. The staggered adoption of the ENEM by universities meant that, depending on their location and cohort, students either took a low-stakes school accountability test or a high-stakes test that governed admission to the most selective colleges in their area. Using ENEM records linked to nationwide college and labor market data, we find that the increase in the stakes of the ENEM exam made scores more informative for students’ longer-run outcomes. However, test score gaps between high- and lower-income students also expanded on the higher-stakes ENEM exam. Our results show that signals that include gaming ability can be more informative about individual productivity than signals that measure only natural ability, but they can also exacerbate socioeconomic inequality.  \nReyes: briq Institute on Behavior & Inequality, Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 5-9, 53113 Bonn, Germany (email: [german.reyes@briq-institute.org](german.reyes@briq-institute.org)). Riehl (corresponding author): Department of Economics, Cornell University, 266 Ives Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853 (email: [eriehl@cornell.edu](eriehl@cornell.edu)). Xu: Department of Economics, Cornell  \nUniversity, 449B Uris Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853 (email: [rx24@cornell.edu](rx24@cornell.edu)).  \n1. Introduction  \nSelecting the right talent is crucial to the success of organizations. A fundamental challenge faced by recruiters is incomplete information on candidate quality. To address this challenge, recruiters often rely on signals of candidate quality from mechanisms like standardized tests or case interviews. Yet candidates have an incentive to manipulate their signals through preparation or even outright cheating, particularly when the positions they are applying for are highly desirable.1  \nAn important question for the design of talent selection mechanisms is whether the potential for manipulation degrades the quality of the signal. Theoretical models of “muddled information”(Frankel and Kartik, 2019) show that, as the stakes of a mechanism increase, signals become more informative about an individual’s gaming ability and less informative about the natural action individuals would take absent signaling concerns.2 Yet, as Frankeland Kartik note, it is unclear whether recruiters would prefer to observe signals of candidate quality with or without gaming. Gaming ability may reflect a candidate’s knowledge of the recruiting mechanism or manipulation skills that are unrelated to productivity, but it could also reflect work ethic, interest, or other desirable attributes.  \nThis paper conducts an empirical evaluation of the relationship between stakes and signal quality in the context of admission exams for elite universities. We exploit a unique natural experiment in Brazil in which a low-stakes high school accountability test was repurposed into a high-stakes admission exam for the country’s most selective universities. Our empirical strategy holds the structure of the exam and the composition of exam takers fixed and asks how the increase in exam stakes impacted two important outcomes: 1) test score gaps between advantaged and disadvantaged students; and 2) the predictive power of scores for college and labor market success.  \nIt is ex ante unclear how an increase in the stakes of an exam affects inequality in test scoresand their informativeness for student outcomes. Absent signaling concerns, the s","cbCaidr8sIJz8aCF","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidr8sIJz8aCF","pdf",1775175,1,66,"English","en",105,"# Introduction\n## Signals, incentives, and manipulation\n## Research question and empirical strategy\n## Implications for inequality and predictive power","[{\"question\":\"What does “muddled information” mean in this study?\",\"answer\":\"Higher stakes can make a signal more informative about an individual’s gaming ability while reducing its informativeness about natural ability absent signaling concerns. The paper evaluates whether this tradeoff harms predictive value for long-run outcomes.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the paper use Brazil’s ENEM to test the stakes effect?\",\"answer\":\"The staggered adoption of ENEM created variation: depending on location and cohort, students faced either low-stakes tests tied to school accountability or high-stakes tests governing admission to selective colleges. The study links ENEM records to nationwide college and labor-market data.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the main findings about test score informativeness and inequality?\",\"answer\":\"Increasing ENEM stakes makes exam scores more informative for students’ longer-run outcomes. However, the higher-stakes exam also expands test score gaps between high- and lower-income students, potentially exacerbating socioeconomic inequality.\"}]","Stakes and Signals - An Empirical Investigation of Muddled Information in Standardized Testing | PDF",1788612204,166,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":28},"stakes-and-signals-an-empirical-investigation-of-muddled-information-in-standardized-testing","",{"@graph":36,"@context":85},[37,54,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/stakes-and-signals-an-empirical-investigation-of-muddled-information-in-standardized-testing/209295/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":41,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-09-05",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What does “muddled information” mean in this study?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Higher stakes can make a signal more informative about an individual’s gaming ability while reducing its informativeness about natural ability absent signaling concerns. The paper evaluates whether this tradeoff harms predictive value for long-run outcomes.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How does the paper use Brazil’s ENEM to test the stakes effect?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The staggered adoption of ENEM created variation: depending on location and cohort, students faced either low-stakes tests tied to school accountability or high-stakes tests governing admission to selective colleges. The study links ENEM records to nationwide college and labor-market data.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What are the main findings about test score informativeness and inequality?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Increasing ENEM stakes makes exam scores more informative for students’ longer-run outcomes. However, the higher-stakes exam also expands test score gaps between high- and lower-income students, potentially exacerbating socioeconomic inequality.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":47,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]