[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110422-en":3,"doc-seo-110422-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110422,4398048950312,"Violet","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/400002538284de19e3c?_k=1778320343897328908",8,"Research & Report","Somalia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis","Debt sustainability analysis updates the November 2020 baseline for Somalia, assessing risks for external and overall public debt. Total public debt is estimated at US$3.5 billion (47.5% of GDP) at end-2021, nearly all external. The baseline shows breaches of key thresholds for PV of external debt-to-exports and debt service-to-revenues, reflecting high exposure to delays in reaching the HIPC Completion Point. While forward-looking sustainability depends on full delivery of HIPC, MDRI, and beyond-HIPC relief, arrears persist and restructuring talks are ongoing.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nMarcello Estevão and Asad Alam (IDA); and Thanos Arvanitis and Gavin Gray (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| SOMALIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis debt sustainability analysis (DSA) provides an update of the November 2020 DSA. Total public debt is US$ 3.5 billion, or 47.5 percent of GDP at end-2021—nearly all of which is external (Tables 1 and 2) . The revised baseline scenario includes (i) updated macroeconomic assumptions, (ii) adoption of the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics nominal GDP series, (iii) use of the 2021 SDR allocation, (iv) interim assistance received since the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Decision Point in March 2020, and (v) updated information consistent with debt relief agreements signed with Paris Club creditors. Somalia is in debt distress, both for external and overall public debt. The present value of external debt in 2021 is 42 percent of GDP, well above the 30 percent threshold for countries like Somalia with weak capacity to manage debt. The baseline forecast indicates substantial and sustained breaches of the PV of external debt-to-exports and the external debt service-to-revenues indicative thresholds, highlighting the risks of any delay in reaching the HIPC Completion Point. Somalia is in arrears with external creditors, and debt restructuring negotiations are ongoing. Nevertheless, Somalia’s debt is assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense, contingent on the full delivery of debt relief under the HIPC Initiative, Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), and beyond-HIPC assistance at the Completion Point (an alternative scenario under the DSA analysis) . Full delivery of this debt relief would bring all debt burden indicators significantly below their respective thresholds, consistent with achieving a moderate risk rating at the Completion Point.  \n1. Public debt data coverage is limited to the federal government. The coverage of public debt captured by the Debt Sustainability Assessment (DSA) is near complete. 1 There is no government guaranteed debt, there are no known liabilities of state-owned enterprises or subnational governments, and no public-private partnerships (PPPs) (Text Table 1) .2 Somalia’s domestic financial institutions and local capital markets are not yet developed, and as such there is no domestic public debt aside from legacy government arrears. Default settings are applied to the DSA contingent liability stress test and no other tailored stress tests are applicable to Somalia. A reconciliation exercise of external obligations was finalized in conjunction with the March 2020 HIPC Decision Point document, and its findings continue to figure in this DSA.3 External debt for the DSA is defined on a residency basis.  \n|  | Subsectors of the public sector\u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt | Check box |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7 8 |  | X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X |\n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  | Default | Used for the analysis | Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n| 2 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. | 0 percent of GDP | 0.1 | Potential increase in debt in d","cbCaiswmKLF1FsM2","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiswmKLF1FsM2","pdf",1117001,1,25,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and conclusions\n## External debt distress vs overall public debt\n## Threshold breaches and implications\n## Forward-looking sustainability conditions\n# Scope, coverage, and data inputs\n## Public debt data coverage limits\n## Contingent liability stress test settings\n## Debt stock composition and creditor structure\n## Updated macroeconomic assumptions and GDP series\n# Alternative scenario and policy dependence\n## Full delivery of debt relief packages\n## Expected indicator improvements","[{\"question\":\"What is Somalia’s assessed risk level for external and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Somalia is in debt distress for both external debt and overall public debt. The overall risk rating also indicates debt distress conditions.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt metrics breach the key sustainability thresholds in the baseline forecast?\",\"answer\":\"The baseline forecast indicates sustained breaches related to the PV of external debt-to-exports and the external debt service-to-revenues thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"Under what condition is Somalia’s debt assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense?\",\"answer\":\"Sustainability is contingent on full delivery of debt relief under the HIPC Initiative, the MDRI, and beyond-HIPC assistance at the Completion Point.\"}]",1784485356,63,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"somalia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/somalia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis/110422/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is Somalia’s assessed risk level for external and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Somalia is in debt distress for both external debt and overall public debt. The overall risk rating also indicates debt distress conditions.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Which debt metrics breach the key sustainability thresholds in the baseline forecast?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The baseline forecast indicates sustained breaches related to the PV of external debt-to-exports and the external debt service-to-revenues thresholds.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Under what condition is Somalia’s debt assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Sustainability is contingent on full delivery of debt relief under the HIPC Initiative, the MDRI, and beyond-HIPC assistance at the Completion Point.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]