[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111090-en":3,"doc-seo-111090-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111090,1099513958762,"Logic","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1000023916a998db790?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1784791008015729253",8,"Research & Report","Somalia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Update and risk assessment","Somalia’s Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis updates the May 2023 LIC-DSA with revised macroeconomic assumptions and reconciled end-2018 and end-2022 debt databases for the HIPC Completion Point Debt Relief Analysis and the DSA. The baseline assumes full delivery of HIPC Initiative, MDRI, and beyond-HIPC relief reached in December 2023. Total public debt is projected to decline sharply by end-2023, yet long-term stress indicates sustained external debt service breaches under grace-period expiries. Overall and external risk are assessed as moderate, with meaningful post-Completion Point shock-absorbing space, while vulnerabilities to security, commodity, and climate shocks persist.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Thanos Arvanitis and Allison Holland (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| SOMALIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Substantial space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) provides an update of the May 2023 LIC-DSA. The updated LIC-DSA incorporates two new elements: (i) updated macroeconomic assumptions including a rebased GDP series, and (ii) the use of reconciled end-2018 and end-2022 debt databases for the HIPC Completion Point Debt Relief Analysis (DRA) and DSA. The baseline scenario for the LIC-DSA also assumes full delivery of debt relief under the HIPC Initiative, Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), and beyond-HIPC assistance at the Completion Point reached in December 2023. Total public debt is projected to decline to US$706 million, or 6.1 percent of GDP at end-2023 from US$3 .9 billion or 37.4 percent of GDP at end-2022. The majority of total public debt is external. Post-HIPC Completion Point, Somalia is assessed to be at moderate risk of debt distress, both for external and overall public debt. Including debt relief at HIPC Completion Point, the present value of external debt in 2022 is estimated to be 22.8 percent of GDP, decreasing to 5.1 percent of GDP in 2023 – below the 30 percent threshold for countries like Somalia with weak debt carrying capacity.1 However, the forecast indicates sustained breaches of the external debt service to revenue indicative threshold under the stress scenario in the long term as grace periods on initial loans expire. Under the moderate rating for overall risk of debt distress, Somalia is mechanically assessed to have substantial space to absorb shocks post-HIPC Completion Point. However, the country is vulnerable to security, international commodity price, and climate shocks and remains highly dependent on external concessional financing, underscoring the importance of strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, debt management institutions, and institutional capacity.  \nThe DSA reflects weak debt carrying capacity considering Somalia’s Composite Indicator of 1 .57, based on the October 2023 World Economic Outlook and the 2022 CPIA vintage.  \n1. Public debt perimeter is the central government. However, successive debt reconciliation missions in 2020 and 2023 under the HIPC process have ensured near complete coverage of public debt.2 There is no government guaranteed debt, there are no known liabilities of state-owned enterprises or subnational governments, and no public-private partnerships (PPPs) . Default settings are accordingly calibrated for the DSA contingent liability stress test (Text Table 1) . Somalia’s domestic financial institutions and local capital markets are not yet developed, and as such there is no domestic public debt aside from legacy government wage arrears. External debt for the DSA is defined on a residency basis. A reconciliation exercise of external obligations was finalized in conjunction with the December 2023 HIPC Completion Point document, and its findings are used to update this DSA.  \n2. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) continues to strengthen its debt management capacity with the support of technical assistance from international partners. The Ministry of Finance established a Debt Management Unit (DMU) in December 2015. The AfDB financed the installation of a debt recording system and provided training to staff in the unit, primarily to support the reconstruction of loan records. The debt recording system has been upgraded to the Commonwealth Meridien System, which is a cloud-based IT system that wil","cbCaipBnMwZhgEPH","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipBnMwZhgEPH","pdf",827057,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Key risk ratings\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk\n## Granularity in risk rating\n## Role of judgment\n# Methodology and updates\n## Updated macroeconomic assumptions\n## Reconciled debt databases for DRA and DSA\n## Baseline assumptions on debt relief\n# Debt outlook and implications\n## Projected decline in public debt\n## Debt relief impact on external debt burden\n## Stress-scenario breaches and drivers\n## Vulnerabilities and policy priorities\n# Debt perimeter and coverage\n## Definition of public debt perimeter\n## Notes on contingent liability stress test\n## Domestic and external debt scope\n# Debt management capacity context","[{\"question\":\"What key updates are included in this Somalia LIC-DSA compared with May 2023?\",\"answer\":\"The update incorporates revised macroeconomic assumptions, including a rebased GDP series, and uses reconciled end-2018 and end-2022 debt databases for the HIPC Completion Point Debt Relief Analysis and the DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"How is Somalia’s risk of debt distress rated after HIPC Completion Point?\",\"answer\":\"Post-HIPC Completion Point, Somalia is assessed to be at moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the stress scenario still show long-term external debt service breaches?\",\"answer\":\"Breaches are sustained under the stress scenario because grace periods on initial loans expire over time, weakening the ability to meet external debt service to revenue indicative thresholds.\"}]",1784488533,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"somalia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-update-and-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/somalia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-update-and-risk-assessment/111090/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What key updates are included in this Somalia LIC-DSA compared with May 2023?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The update incorporates revised macroeconomic assumptions, including a rebased GDP series, and uses reconciled end-2018 and end-2022 debt databases for the HIPC Completion Point Debt Relief Analysis and the DSA.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How is Somalia’s risk of debt distress rated after HIPC Completion Point?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Post-HIPC Completion Point, Somalia is assessed to be at moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why does the stress scenario still show long-term external debt service breaches?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Breaches are sustained under the stress scenario because grace periods on initial loans expire over time, weakening the ability to meet external debt service to revenue indicative 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