[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111561-en":3,"doc-seo-111561-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111561,1099514068035,"Ezra","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Somalia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis Update","Somalia’s Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) updates the December 2023 assessment with revised borrowing assumptions, a shift in projection year to 2024, and updated macroeconomic forecasts. Under the baseline, debt relief delivery is assumed through the HIPC Initiative, MDRI, and beyond-HIPC assistance at the December 13, 2023 Completion Point. Total public debt rises in nominal terms to US$778 million by end-2024, while the overall risk remains moderate and external distress risk is moderate.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Thanos Arvanitis and Allison Holland (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| SOMALIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Substantial space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) provides an update of the December 2023 LICDSA. The updated LIC-DSA incorporates three new elements: (i) updated borrowing assumptions that incorporate IDA20’s moratorium on hardening of financing terms for countries affected by extreme fragility, such as Somalia, which in practice extends the grant status for Somalia until end-June 2025 (previously end-June 2024), (ii) shift in the first year of projections to 2024 (previously 2023), and (iii) updated macroeconomic forecasts. As with the December 2023 LIC-DSA, the baseline assumes full delivery of debt relief under the HIPC Initiative, Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), and beyond-HIPC assistance at the Completion Point reached on December 13, 2023. Total public debt is projected to increase in nominal terms to US$778 million at end-2024 from US$766 million at end-2023, but decline relative to GDP from 6.6 percent of GDP at end-2023 to 6.1 percent of GDP at end-2024. The majority of total public debt is external. Somalia is assessed to be at moderate risk of debt distress, both for external and overall public debt. The present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt is estimated to be 4.7 percent of GDP in 2024 – below the 30 percent threshold for countries like Somalia with weak debt carrying capacity.1 However, the forecast indicates sustained breaches of the external debt service to revenue indicative threshold under the stress scenario in the long term as grace periods on initial loans expire. Under the moderate rating for overall risk of debt  \n1 This LIC-DSA reflects Somalia’s weak debt carrying capacity considering Somalia’s Composite Indicator of 1. 57, based on the October 2023 World Economic Outlook and the 2022 CPIA vintage.  \ndistress, Somalia is mechanically assessed to have substantial space to absorb shocks. However, the country is vulnerable to security, international commodity price, and climate shocks and remains highly dependent on external concessional financing, underscoring the importance of strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, debt management institutions, and institutional capacity.  \n1. Public debt perimeter is the central government. However, successive debt reconciliation missions in 2020 and 2023 under the HIPC process have ensured near complete coverage of public debt.2 There is no government guaranteed debt, there are no known liabilities of state-owned enterprises or subnational governments, and no public-private partnerships (PPPs) . Default settings are accordingly calibrated for the LIC-DSA contingent liability stress test (Text Table 1) . Somalia’s domestic financial institutions and local capital markets are not yet developed, and as such there is no domestic public debt aside from legacy government wage arrears. External debt for the LIC-DSA is defined on a residency basis.  \n2. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) continues to strengthen its debt management capacity with the support of technical assistance from international partners. The Ministry of Finance established a Debt Management Unit (DMU) in December 2015. The AfDB financed the installation of a debt recording system and provided training to staff in the unit, primarily to support thereconstruction of loan records. The debt recording system has been upgraded to the Commonwealth Meridien System, which is a cloud-based IT system that","cbCaiePyMRrQ2L13","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiePyMRrQ2L13","pdf",849734,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Somalia: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis\n## Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Key assumptions and baseline scenario\n## Debt metrics and vulnerabilities\n## Debt management capacity and financing context","[{\"question\":\"What is updated in the Somalia LIC-DSA compared with December 2023?\",\"answer\":\"The update incorporates revised borrowing assumptions reflecting IDA20’s moratorium for highly fragile countries, shifts the first projection year to 2024, and includes updated macroeconomic forecasts.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the assessed risks for Somalia’s debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Somalia is assessed to have a moderate risk of debt distress for both external debt and overall public debt. The risk rating granularity indicates substantial space to absorb shocks under the moderate overall rating.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the stress scenario indicate future breaches of external debt service thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"Despite the moderate assessment, the forecast shows sustained breaches of the external debt service to revenue indicative threshold under stress as grace periods on initial loans expire, while vulnerabilities remain in security conditions, commodity prices, and climate shocks.\"}]",1784490683,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"somalia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-income-countries-debt-sustainability-analysis-update","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/somalia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-income-countries-debt-sustainability-analysis-update/111561/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is updated in the Somalia LIC-DSA compared with December 2023?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The update incorporates revised borrowing assumptions reflecting IDA20’s moratorium for highly fragile countries, shifts the first projection year to 2024, and includes updated macroeconomic forecasts.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What are the assessed risks for Somalia’s debt distress?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Somalia is assessed to have a moderate risk of debt distress for both external debt and overall public debt. The risk rating granularity indicates substantial space to absorb shocks under the moderate overall rating.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why does the stress scenario indicate future breaches of external debt service thresholds?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Despite the moderate assessment, the forecast shows sustained breaches of the external debt service to revenue indicative threshold under stress as grace periods on initial loans expire, while vulnerabilities remain in security conditions, commodity prices, and climate shocks.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]