[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111901-en":3,"doc-seo-111901-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111901,1374391974564,"Clementine","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253aa45c000a9e?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779874745381141002",8,"Research & Report","Somalia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA)","Joint World Bank-IMF LIC-DSA provides a streamlined update to the April 2024 analysis for Somalia, incorporating higher 2024 Development Policy Financing (US$125 million on grant terms) and revised macroeconomic and fiscal series. Somalia is assessed at moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt. Baseline projections assume full delivery of HIPC Initiative and beyond-HIPC assistance by the December 2023 Completion Point, with limited impact on the overall risk rating. Stress testing reflects a breach of external debt service-to-revenue thresholds when grace periods expire under combined shocks.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) , and Thanos Arvanitis and Allison Holland (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| SOMALIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Substantial space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) provides a streamlined update to the April 2024 LIC-DSA, adding two elements: (i) US$125 million under the World Bank’s Development Policy Financing instrument in 2024 on grant terms (compared to US$75 million assumed previously), and (ii) updated macroeconomic and fiscal series and forecasts. These factors do not materially affect the risk rating relative to the April 2024 LIC-DSA. Somalia is assessed to be at moderate risk of debt distress, both for external and overall public debt. The baseline continues to assume full delivery of debt relief under the HIPC Initiative and beyond-HIPC assistance at the Completion Point reached in December 2023. Total public debt is projected to increase to US$778 million in 2024 from US$766 million in 2023 but decline relative to GDP from 7 percent of GDP in 2023 to 6.4 percent of GDP in 2024. Most public debt is external. The present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt is estimated at 4.3 percent of GDP in 2024 – below the 30 percent threshold for countries like Somalia with weak debt carrying capacity.1 However, the LIC-DSA involves a breach of the external debt service to revenue indicative threshold in the stress scenario due to the expiry of grace periods on initial loans assumed to be issued under combined shocks.2 Somalia is mechanically assessed to have substantial space to absorb shocks. However, the country continues to be vulnerable to security, international commodity price, and climate shocks and remains highly dependent on external concessional financing,  \n1 This streamlined LIC-DSA update reflects Somalia’s weak debt carrying capacity considering Somalia’s Composite Indicator of 1.58, based on the April 2024 World Economic Outlook and the 2022 CPIA vintage.  \n2 Includes shocks to real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, current transfers and FDI, and exchange rate.  \nunderscoring the importance of strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, debt management institutions, and institutional capacity.  \n1. The public debt perimeter is the central government. Debt reconciliation missions in 2020 and 2023 under the HIPC process have ensured near complete coverage of public debt.3 There is no government guaranteed debt, there are no known liabilities of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or subnational governments, and no public-private partnerships (PPPs) . Default settings are accordingly calibrated for the LIC-DSA contingent liability stress test (Text Table 1) . Somalia’s domestic financial institutions and local capital markets are not yet developed, and as such there is no domestic public debt aside from legacy government wage arrears.4 External debt for the LIC-DSA is defined on a residency basis.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n| Sources: Somali Authorities and IMF staff estimates. |\n\n2. The estimated total stock of outstanding public debt as of end-2023 is US$766.3 million, of which US$698.4 million is external while US$67.8 million represents central government wage arrears.  \nOf the total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt, almost 67 percent is owed to multilateral creditors and 33 percent is owed to bilateral creditors. The authorities have continued to make good faith efforts to reach agreement with individual creditors to restructure Somalia’s PPG external debt (Table 7) .  \n3 The World Bank and the IMF also provide support to the go","cbCaibZAFOVzrI7O","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibZAFOVzrI7O","pdf",1188666,1,16,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n# Baseline assumptions and projections\n## HIPC and beyond-HIPC assistance\n## Public debt path and debt-to-GDP trends\n# Debt metrics and thresholds\n## PV of external debt and the 30% threshold\n## Stress scenario and breach mechanism\n# Shock vulnerability and policy implications\n## Security, commodity price, and climate shocks\n## Revenue mobilization and debt management","[{\"question\":\"What risk level does the analysis assign to Somalia’s debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Somalia is assessed to have moderate risk of debt distress for both external debt and overall public debt.\"},{\"question\":\"What main updates are included compared with the April 2024 LIC-DSA?\",\"answer\":\"The update adds US$125 million in 2024 Development Policy Financing on grant terms and refreshes macroeconomic and fiscal series and forecasts.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the stress scenario breach the external debt service-to-revenue threshold?\",\"answer\":\"The breach occurs due to the expiry of grace periods on initial loans when combined shocks hit real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, current transfers and FDI, and the exchange rate.\"}]",1784492221,40,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"somalia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-income-countries-debt-sustainability-analysis-lic-dsa","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/somalia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-income-countries-debt-sustainability-analysis-lic-dsa/111901/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What risk level does the analysis assign to Somalia’s debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Somalia is assessed to have moderate risk of debt distress for both external debt and overall public debt.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What main updates are included compared with the April 2024 LIC-DSA?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The update adds US$125 million in 2024 Development Policy Financing on grant terms and refreshes macroeconomic and fiscal series and forecasts.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why does the stress scenario breach the external debt service-to-revenue threshold?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The breach occurs due to the expiry of grace periods on initial loans when combined shocks hit real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, current transfers and FDI, and the exchange 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