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A model compares current diagnosis patterns with earlier-stage diagnosis in Victoria from 2023 to 2027, using registry and population data and remote-area workforce structure.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & Report",3,{"item":32,"name":10,"@type":21,"position":33},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/simulating-the-healthcare-workforce-impact-and-capacity-for-pancreatic-cancer-care-in-victoria-a-model-based-analysis/327014/",4,{"url":32,"name":10,"@type":35,"image":36,"author":41,"headline":10,"publisher":44,"fileFormat":47,"inLanguage":8,"description":12,"dateModified":48,"datePublished":49,"encodingFormat":47,"isAccessibleForFree":50,"interactionStatistic":51},"DigitalDocument",{"url":37,"@type":38,"width":39,"height":40},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/simulating-the-healthcare-workforce-impact-and-capacity-for-pancreatic-cancer-care-in-victoria-a-model-based-analysis/327014.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":42,"@type":43},"Anda","Person",{"url":19,"name":45,"@type":46},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-23","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":52,"interactionType":53,"userInteractionCount":55},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":54},"ViewAction",6,{"@type":57,"mainEntity":58},"FAQPage",[59,65,69],{"name":60,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":62},"What question does the model-based analysis address?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"It estimates how earlier diagnosis of pancreatic cancer could change demand and supply of the healthcare workforce delivering pancreatic cancer care in Victoria.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"Which workforce professions are included in the simulation?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"The simulation includes general surgeons, medical oncologists, radiation oncologists, pain medicine physicians, and palliative care physicians.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"What does the study suggest about outcomes after shifting toward earlier diagnosis?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"Earlier diagnosis increases survival and is associated with a substantial additional number of patients remaining alive up to five years, though workforce distribution imbalances persist.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":32,"og:type":75,"og:title":10,"og:site_name":45,"og:description":12},"article",{"robots":77,"canonical":32},"index,follow",{"doc_id":79,"site_id":7},327014,1790177835,{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":83},"success",[84,88,92,96,101,105,110,114,119,122,126],{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":85,"show_sort_weight":86,"slug":87},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":26,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":89,"show_sort_weight":90,"slug":91},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":33,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":97,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":55,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":29,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},8,30,"research-report",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":120,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":121},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":123,"slug":125},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":129},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":131},{"doc_id":79,"user_id":132,"nickname":42,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":111,"category_name":29,"doc_title":10,"doc_description":12,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":55,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":22,"is_downloadable":22,"audit_status":22,"page_count":115,"language":139,"language_code":8,"site_id":7,"html_lang":8,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":12,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},962075006959,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/e0002397efbe92a78e?_k=1776741047341049297","Gao et al. BMC Health Services Research (2024) 24:239 BMC Health Services Research  \n[https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-024-10722-9](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-024-10722-9)  \nRESEARCH Open Access  \nSimulating the healthcare workforce impact and capacity for pancreatic cancer care in Victoria: a model-based analysis  \nLan Gao 1*, Anna Ugalde2, Patricia M Livingston2, Victoria White2, Jennifer J Watts 1, Hannah Jongebloed2, Nikki McCaffrey 1, David Menzies3 and Suzanne Robinson 1  \nAbstract  \nBackground The incidence of pancreatic cancer is rising. With improvements in knowledge for screening and early detection, earlier detection of pancreatic cancer will continue to be more common. To support workforce planning, our aim is to perform a model-based analysis that simulates the potential impact on the healthcare workforce, assuming an earlier diagnosis of pancreatic cancer.  \nMethods We developed a simulation model to estimate the demand (i. e. new cases of pancreatic cancer) and supply (i. e. the healthcare workforce including general surgeons, medical oncologists, radiation oncologists, pain medicine physicians, and palliative care physicians) between 2023 and 2027 in Victoria, Australia. The model compares the current scenario to one in which pancreatic cancer is diagnosed at an earlier stage. The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Victoria, five-year survival rates, and Victoria’s population size were obtained from Victorian Cancer Registry, Cancer Council NSW, and Australian Bureau of Statistics respectively. The healthcare workforce data were sourced from the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care’s Health Workforce Data. The model was constructed atthe remoteness level. We analysed the new cases and the number of healthcare workforce by profession together to assess the impact on the healthcare workforce.  \nResults In the status quo, over the next five years, there will be 198 to 220 stages I-II, 297 to 330 stage III, and 495 to 550 stage IV pancreatic cancer cases diagnosed annually, respectively. Assuming 20–70% of the shift towards pancreatic cancer’s earlier diagnosis (shifting from stage IV to stages I-II pancreatic cancer within one year), the stages I-II cases could increase to 351 to 390 or 598 to 665 per year. The shift to early diagnosis led to substantial survival gains, translating into an additional 284 or 795 out of 5246 patients with pancreatic cancer remaining alive up to year 5 post-diagnosis. Workforce supply decreases significantly by the remoteness levels, and remote areas face a shortage of key medical professionals registered in delivering pancreatic cancer care, suggesting travel necessities by patients or clinicians.  \n*Correspondence: Lan Gao[lan.gao@deakin.edu.au](lan.gao@deakin.edu.au)  \nFull list of author information is available at the end of the article  \n© The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit [http://creativecommons.org/l](http://creativecommons.org/l)icenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ([http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/](http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/)) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in","cbCaiv9zzm5RA4Ox","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiv9zzm5RA4Ox","pdf",1012414,"English","# Abstract\n## Background\n## Methods\n## Results\n## Conclusion\n# Background","[{\"question\":\"What question does the model-based analysis address?\",\"answer\":\"It estimates how earlier diagnosis of pancreatic cancer could change demand and supply of the healthcare workforce delivering pancreatic cancer care in Victoria.\"},{\"question\":\"Which workforce professions are included in the simulation?\",\"answer\":\"The simulation includes general surgeons, medical oncologists, radiation oncologists, pain medicine physicians, and palliative care physicians.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the study suggest about outcomes after shifting toward earlier diagnosis?\",\"answer\":\"Earlier diagnosis increases survival and is associated with a substantial additional number of patients remaining alive up to five years, though workforce distribution imbalances persist.\"}]","Simulating the healthcare workforce impact and capacity for pancreatic cancer care in Victoria - a model-based analysis | PDF",1789975962,23]