[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110908-en":3,"doc-seo-110908-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110908,1374391974564,"Clementine","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253aa45c000a9e?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779874745381141002",8,"Research & Report","Senegal - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk of Debt Distress","Senegal faces a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress under the baseline scenario, with limited fiscal space to absorb shocks. The assessment hinges on a growth rebound and a medium-term expansion of hydrocarbon-driven growth and exports, while fiscal deficits converge to a regional benchmark of 3 percent of GDP in 2024 through unwinding COVID-19 one-offs and stronger revenue mobilization. Key uncertainties include slower vaccination, socio-political unrest, security challenges, and delays to hydrocarbon projects, requiring a prudent strategy focused on concessional borrowing and strengthened debt management.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Marcello Estevão (IDA) Annalisa Fedelino and Natalia Tamirisa (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staffs of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| SENEGAL : JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nSenegal faces a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress under the baseline scenario, with limited space to absorb shocks. This rating is contingent upon a growth rebound and a significant boost to growth and exports from hydrocarbon production over the medium term. The baseline also assumes that fiscal deficits will converge to the regional convergence criterion of 3 percent of GDP in 2024, supported by the unwinding of one-off COVID-19-related spending and enhanced revenue-mobilization. However, projections are subject to significant uncertainty. Potential risks include a slower pace of the domestic vaccination campaign as new COVID variants emerge, socio-political unrest, security challenges and delays to the hydrocarbon projects. Maintaining debt sustainability in this context requires a prudent borrowing strategy that prioritizes concessional external borrowing and domestic regional financing alongside continued efforts to strengthen debt management. Broader fiscal policy should seek to increase fiscal space over the medium-term to respond to future shocks.  \n1. This DSA uses a broad definition of public debt. The assessment includes public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt held by (i) the central government, (ii) para-public entities, and (iii) state-owned enterprises (SOEs) (Text Table 1) .2 This DSA uses a currency-based definition of external and domestic debt as data constraints prevent the use of a residency-based definition. Debt to the regional development bank (BOAD) has been treated as domestic debt since the beginning of the current PCI in January 2020. The default financial sector shock of 5 percent of GDP is more than adequate to cover contingent risks from potential bank recapitalization needs, which are estimated to be less than 1 percent of GDP.  \n2. The authorities are taking steps to strengthen the quality and coverage of public debt data.  \nA recent audit of the quality and coverage of the public debt database did not identify major weaknesses, but noted risks related to the timeliness and reliability of SOE debt data. The authorities have developed an action plan to address these deficiencies. In addition, the national debt committee (CNDP), chaired by the Minister of Finance, reviews all large public investment decisions, including those by SOEs. A recent circular and decree have reinforced the role of the CNDP by clarifying the need for regular and timely provision of debt data by SOEs as a pre-requisite for consideration by the CNDP of any public borrowing.  \n3. Public sector debt levels have more than doubled over the last decade. Senegal has  \nsignificant development needs and some of the large increases in public debt reflect investments associated with the national development plan, the Plan Senegal Emergent (PSE) . The government has scaled-up capital expenditures, notably in infrastructure, energy, and agriculture, with public investment representing 38 percent of public expenditure on average from 2010 to 2020, contributing to economic growth. More recently, external public debt has also been driven by investments related to the oil and gas sector and the fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to a further surge in public debt levels. As of end-December 2020, public sector external debt stood at 54 percent of GDP, while total public sector debt reached 68.8 percent of GDP (Text Figure 1) . 3 The main holders of Se","cbCaisLbUrl6DxFG","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaisLbUrl6DxFG","pdf",1044493,1,23,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment\n## Baseline Scenario and Contingencies\n# Debt Coverage and Definitions\n## Public Debt Scope\n## Shock and Contingent Liabilities\n# Debt Data Quality and Governance\n## Audit Findings and SOE Data Risks\n## CNDP Oversight Mechanisms\n# Debt Dynamics and Financing\n## Rising Public Debt and PSE-Linked Investments\n## Eurobond Issuance and Risk Management\n# Concessional Financing and Debt Service\n## 2021 SDR Allocation Implications\n## External Debt Service and Exports","[{\"question\":\"What is Senegal’s assessed risk level for debt distress in the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both external debt distress and overall public debt distress as moderate, with limited room to absorb shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"Which assumptions and factors determine the baseline risk rating?\",\"answer\":\"The rating depends on a growth rebound and stronger growth and exports from hydrocarbon production, plus fiscal deficits converging to 3 percent of GDP in 2024 through COVID spending unwinding and better revenue mobilization.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the major risks that could worsen debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Uncertainties include slower progress in domestic vaccination with new COVID variants, socio-political unrest, security challenges, and delays to hydrocarbon 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is Senegal’s assessed risk level for debt distress in the baseline scenario?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis rates both external debt distress and overall public debt distress as moderate, with limited room to absorb shocks.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which assumptions and factors determine the baseline risk rating?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The rating depends on a growth rebound and stronger growth and exports from hydrocarbon production, plus fiscal deficits converging to 3 percent of GDP in 2024 through COVID spending unwinding and better revenue mobilization.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What are the major risks that could worsen debt sustainability?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Uncertainties include slower progress in domestic vaccination with new COVID variants, socio-political unrest, security challenges, and delays to hydrocarbon 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