[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110142-en":3,"doc-seo-110142-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110142,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","Senegal - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk Assessment","Senegal is assessed to be at moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, constrained by limited capacity to absorb shocks. Public debt is projected to decline from 2023, supported by a favorable interest-rate–growth differential and revenue-led fiscal consolidation. Medium-term assumptions include hydrocarbon-driven improvements in growth, exports, and revenues, deficits converging to a 3 percent of GDP regional target by 2024, and potential growth near 5 percent of GDP, with substantial uncertainty around these projections. Key downside risks include elevated commodity prices and fiscal costs from geopolitical conflict, new COVID variants, security challenges, higher financing costs, and delays to hydrocarbon projects. Debt sustainability requires a prudent borrowing strategy emphasizing concessional external borrowing and domestic/regional financing, alongside stronger debt management and expanded fiscal space through revenue mobilization and reduced energy subsidies.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Marcello Estevão (IDA) Montford Mlachila and Natalia Tamirisa (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| SENEGAL : JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate 1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nSenegal is assessed to be at moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. Public debt is projected to commence a downward trajectory in 2023 , driven by a positive interest-rate growth differential and revenue-based fiscal consolidation. The key assumptions underpinning this assessment are (i) a boost to growth , exports , and fiscal revenues from hydrocarbon production over the medium term , (ii) fiscal deficits that converge to the regional convergence criterion of 3 percent of GDP by 2024 , and (iii) medium-term potential growth of about 5 percent of GDP. Projections are subject to significant uncertainty. A prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine would contribute to higher commodity prices and weigh on external demand , potentially slowing growth and further increasing fiscal costs to Senegal from subsidies. New COVID variants, regional security challenges , higher external financing costs, and potential delays to the hydrocarbon projects are also risks. One potential upside risk is a potential increase in demand for hydrocarbons from Europe as they seek alternative energy sources. Maintaining debt sustainability in this context requires a prudent borrowing strategy that prioritizes concessional external borrowing and domestic regional financing alongside continued efforts to strengthen debt management. Broader fiscal policy should seek to increase fiscal space over the medium-term to respond to future shocks , primarily by expanding the revenue base and eliminating costly energy subsidies.  \n1. This DSA uses a broad definition of public debt. The assessment includes public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt held by (i) the central government, (ii) para-public entities, and (iii) state-owned enterprises (SOEs) (Text Table 1) .2 This DSA uses a currency-based definition of external and domestic debt as data constraints prevent the use of a residency-based definition. Debt to the regional development bank (BOAD) has been treated as domestic debt since the beginning of the current PCI in January 2020.3 The default financial sector shock of 5 percent of GDP is more than adequate to cover contingent risks from potential bank recapitalization needs , which are estimated to be less than 1 percent of GDP.  \n2. The authorities are taking steps to strengthen the quality and coverage of public debt data.  \nA recent audit of the quality and coverage of the public debt database did not identify major weaknesses, but noted risks related to the timeliness and reliability of SOE debt data. The authorities are following through on an action plan to address these deficiencies. The national debt committee (CNDP), chaired by the Minister of Finance, reviews all large public investment decisions , including those by SOEs. However, ongoing vigilance is required to ensure that the framework is consistently followed in practice.4 A recent circular and decree to reinforce the regular and timely provision of debt data by SOEs is starting to bear fruit, enhancing the debt authorities’ visibility on the wider perimeter of debt.  \n3. Public sector debt levels have increased significantly since the end of 2019. The fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in public debt of about 10 percentage points , from 63.6 percent of GDP at end-2019 to 73.2 percent of GDP as of end-2021 . The central government’s debt makes up the majority of this amount (67 .4 ","cbCaimOEIRtC70xG","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimOEIRtC70xG","pdf",826336,3,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and key assumptions\n# Debt definition, shock assumptions, and data coverage\n# Public debt dynamics since 2019\n# External and total debt service burdens\n# Financing support and policy context","[{\"question\":\"What is Senegal’s overall assessment of debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"Senegal is assessed at moderate risk of both external and overall public debt distress, with limited room to absorb shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"What drives the projected downward path of public debt starting in 2023?\",\"answer\":\"The projection relies on a positive interest-rate–growth differential and revenue-based fiscal consolidation.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors are highlighted as major risks to the debt outlook?\",\"answer\":\"Risks include prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict raising commodity prices and hurting external demand, new COVID variants, regional security challenges, higher external financing costs, and potential delays to hydrocarbon projects.\"}]","Senegal - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk Assessment | PDF",1784484090,53,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"senegal-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/senegal-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment/110142/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is Senegal’s overall assessment of debt distress risk?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Senegal is assessed at moderate risk of both external and overall public debt distress, with limited room to absorb shocks.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"What drives the projected downward path of public debt starting in 2023?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The projection relies on a positive interest-rate–growth differential and revenue-based fiscal consolidation.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Which factors are highlighted as major risks to the debt outlook?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Risks include prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict raising commodity prices and hurting external demand, new COVID variants, regional security challenges, higher external financing costs, and potential delays to hydrocarbon projects.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]