[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-46105-en":3,"doc-seo-46105-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},46105,687197207057,"Sage","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development","The report outlines scenario planning as a method for anticipating how technology could shape globalization and international development, especially under uncertainty. Produced by The Rockefeller Foundation and Global Business Network, it explains why scenarios matter, how to frame a focal question, and how to choose critical uncertainties such as global political and economic alignment and adaptive capacity. It then presents four distinct technology-and-development scenario narratives—Lock Step, Clever Together, Hack Attack, and Smart Scramble—followed by concluding reflections and an appendix.","Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development  \nThis report was produced by The Rockefeller Foundation and Global Business Network.  \nMay 2010  \nContents  \nLetter from Judith Rodin.............................................. 4  \nLetter from Peter Schwartz ........................................... 6  \nIntroduction .............................................................. 8  \nWHY SCENARIOS? ...................................................... 9  \nWHY TECHNOLOGY? ................................................... 10  \nTHE FOCAL QUESTION ................................................. 11  \nENGAGING YOUR IMAGINATION ...................................... 11  \nThe Scenario Framework............................................ 13  \nCHOOSING THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES ........................... 14  \nGLOBAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT .................... 15  \nADAPTIVE CAPACITY ................................................. 15  \nTHE SCENARIO NARRATIVES ......................................... 17  \nLock Step ......................................................... 18  \nClever Together .................................................. 26  \nHack Attack ...................................................... 34  \nSmart Scramble .................................................. 42  \nConcluding Thoughts................................................. 49  \nAppendix ................................................................ 51  \nScenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development  \n4  \nLetter from Judith Rodin  \nPresident of the Rockefeller Foundation  \nThe Rockefeller Foundation supports work that expands opportunity and strengthens resilience to social, economic, health, and environmental challenges—affirming its pioneering philanthropic mission, since 1913, to “promote the well-being” of humanity. We take a synergistic, strategic approach that places a high value on innovative processes and encourages new ways of seeking ideas, to break down silosand encourage interdisciplinary thinking.  \nOne important—and novel—component of our strategy toolkit is scenario planning, a process of creating narratives about the future based on factors likely to affect a particular set of challenges and opportunities. We believe that scenario planning has great potential for use in philanthropy to identify unique interventions, simulate and rehearse important decisions that could have profound implications, and highlight previously undiscovered areas of connection and intersection. Most important, by providing a methodological structure that helps us focus on what we don’t know—instead of what we already know—scenario planning allows us to achieve impact more effectively.  \nThe results of our first scenario planning exercise demonstrate a provocative and engaging exploration of the role of technology and the future of globalization, as you will see in the following pages. This report is crucial reading for anyone interested in creatively considering the multiple, divergent ways in which our world could evolve. The sparks of insight inspiring these narratives—along with their implications for philanthropy as a whole—were generated through the invaluable collaboration of grantee representatives, external experts, and Rockefeller Foundation staff. I offer a special thanks to Peter Schwartz, Andrew Blau, and the entire team at Global Business Network, who have helped guide us through this stimulating and energizing process.  \nLeading this effort at the Rockefeller Foundation is our Research Unit, which analyzes emerging risks and opportunities and thinks imaginatively about how to respond to the complex, rapidly changing world around us. This outward-looking intelligence function adopts a cross-cutting mindset that synthesizes and integrates knowledge that accelerates our ability to act more quickly and effectively. It has also helped to shape and build the notion of “pro-poor foresight” tha","cbCaiqwlHyoNq1yJ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqwlHyoNq1yJ","pdf",5373529,3,1,54,"English","en",105,"# Contents\n## Letter from Judith Rodin\n## Letter from Peter Schwartz\n## Introduction\n## Why Scenarios?\n## Why Technology?\n## The Focal Question\n## Engaging Your Imagination\n## The Scenario Framework\n## Choosing the Critical Uncertainties\n## The Scenario Narratives\n## Concluding Thoughts\n## Appendix","[{\"question\":\"What is the purpose of scenario planning in this report?\",\"answer\":\"Scenario planning is used to create future narratives based on factors likely to affect specific challenges and opportunities. It provides a structure to focus on what is not yet known and support more effective decision-making and impact.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report focus on technology and international development?\",\"answer\":\"It argues that technology is becoming increasingly integral to development progress, from agriculture to remote healthcare. The report links technology’s role to how globalization evolves and how resilience and opportunity can be strengthened.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the four scenario narratives presented in the report?\",\"answer\":\"The report presents four scenarios: Lock Step, Clever Together, Hack Attack, and Smart Scramble. 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It provides a structure to focus on what is not yet known and support more effective decision-making and impact.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the report focus on technology and international development?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"It argues that technology is becoming increasingly integral to development progress, from agriculture to remote healthcare. The report links technology’s role to how globalization evolves and how resilience and opportunity can be strengthened.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What are the four scenario narratives presented in the report?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The report presents four scenarios: Lock Step, Clever Together, Hack Attack, and Smart Scramble. 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