[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110634-en":3,"doc-seo-110634-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110634,7971461740909,"Levi","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","São Tomé and Príncipe - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - August 2021","Joint World Bank-IMF debt sustainability analysis for São Tomé and Príncipe assesses the country’s debt situation under baseline projections. The report concludes the country remains in external debt distress due to prolonged unresolved external arrears exceeding 2 percent of GDP. Despite breaches in specific external debt burden indicators during 2021-2022 and a marginal breach in 2025, other indicators stay below thresholds. Total PPG debt is projected to breach a weak-capacity benchmark through 2025, but public debt sustainability is preserved with major risks.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nDEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nAugust 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão, Asad Alam (IDA), Vivek Arora and Anna Ilyina (IMF)  \n\n| São Tomé and Príncipe: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n\nThe country remains in debt distress due to prolonged unsettled external arrears of more than 2 percent of GDP, however, debt is considered sustainable due to the low and declining level of debt after accounting for concessionality, low debt service indicators and expected strengthening of domestic revenue and the energy sector under the on-going IMF program 1. Staff assesses that the country has the capacity to repay the external arrears over time, as indicated by the moderate external debt ratios. While the present value (PV) of the external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold in 2021 and 2022 due to the COVID-19 shock and debt service-to-exports ratio marginally breaches its threshold in 2025, all other external PPG debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds throughout the projection horizon in the baseline scenario. The PV of total PPG debt (after accounting for the concessional terms of central government’s debt and EMAE’s debt and arrears to the country’s fuel supplier, ENCO) is projected to breach the benchmark associated with a weak debt-carrying capacity (35 percent of GDP) through 2025. As its downward trajectory remains intact, predicated on the authorities’commitment to implement EMAE’s planned reforms and borrow externally only on concessional terms at a measured pace, public debt sustainability is preserved but subject to large risks. The likelihood of contingent liabilities materializing, particularly ENCO’s arrears to its parent company Sonangol (a state-owned company of Angola), remains low.  \n1 The country’s debt carrying capacity is assessed to remain weak under the Composite Index (CI), as in the previous DSA of the Second Review of ECF (see Text Table 2) . The CI is estimated based on the April 2021 WEO vintage and 2019 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) . The applicable thresholds for debt indicators remain unchanged as in the previous review. The DSA analysis uses the residency-based assumption on debt.  \n1. São Tomé and Príncipe remains in debt distress as in the previous DSA. For the purpose of the DSA for São Tomé and Príncipe, PPG debt includes central government’s debt and EMAE’s (a state-owned utility company) debt and arrears2. Total PPG debt reached around 87 percent of GDP in 2020, including external debt of 43 percent of GDP.3,4 The debt distress rating reflects the ongoing regularization of São Tomé and Príncipe’s post-HIPC sovereign arrears (to Angola, Brazil, and Equatorial Guinea) . The arrears add up to US$10.7 million (2.2 percent of 2020 GDP) . The government has actively sought debt rescheduling agreements with Angola and Equatorial Guinea through correspondence and high-level meetings and made some good progress. An agreement with the Brazilian government was reached, pending ratification by the Brazilian Senate. The presence of significant debt and arrears ofEMAE to its supplier also reflect severe liquidity constraints in the public sector. Staff assesses that São Tomé and Príncipe has the capacity to repay these arrears over time as long as the country implements reforms to the lossmaking state-owned enterprise, EMAE, and continues to borrow externally at concessional terms. São ","cbCairaAO4bx7xU1","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCairaAO4bx7xU1","pdf",384801,1,13,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress Assessment\n## External Debt Distress and Overall Risk\n## Granularity and Judgement Application\n# Baseline Debt Outlook and Indicator Breaches\n## Arrears, COVID-19 Impact, and Threshold Tests\n## Public Debt Sustainability and Main Assumptions\n# Coverage of Public Debt Under Baseline Scenario\n## Subsector Coverage and Guarantees\n# Key Definitions and Scope Notes\n## EMAE Restructuring and Exclusions","[{\"question\":\"Why does São Tomé and Príncipe remain in debt distress in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The report attributes the ongoing debt distress to prolonged unresolved external arrears exceeding 2 percent of GDP, reflecting persistent liquidity constraints and delayed regularization efforts.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt burden indicators breach thresholds and when?\",\"answer\":\"The PV of external public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-exports breaches its threshold in 2021 and 2022, and the debt service-to-exports ratio marginally breaches its threshold in 2025. Other external PPG burden indicators remain below thresholds throughout the projection horizon.\"},{\"question\":\"What determines whether debt sustainability is preserved despite risks?\",\"answer\":\"Debt sustainability is preserved because the projected decline trajectory remains intact, supported by authorities’ reforms for the loss-making utility EMAE and continued external borrowing on concessional terms at a measured pace; however, risks are elevated due to potential contingent liabilities.\"}]",1784486359,33,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"sao-tome-and-principe-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-august-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/sao-tome-and-principe-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-august-2021/110634/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"Why does São Tomé and Príncipe remain in debt distress in the analysis?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The report attributes the ongoing debt distress to prolonged unresolved external arrears exceeding 2 percent of GDP, reflecting persistent liquidity constraints and delayed regularization efforts.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Which debt burden indicators breach thresholds and when?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The PV of external public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-exports breaches its threshold in 2021 and 2022, and the debt service-to-exports ratio marginally breaches its threshold in 2025. Other external PPG burden indicators remain below thresholds throughout the projection horizon.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What determines whether debt sustainability is preserved despite risks?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Debt sustainability is preserved because the projected decline trajectory remains intact, supported by authorities’ reforms for the loss-making utility EMAE and continued external borrowing on concessional terms at a measured pace; however, risks are elevated due to potential contingent liabilities.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]