[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110817-en":3,"doc-seo-110817-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110817,1374391974468,"Eden","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE - JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS - Debt distress assessment","Sao Tomé and Príncipe remains in debt distress because prolonged unsettled external arrears exceed 2% of GDP. Staff assesses repayment capacity based on moderate external debt ratios, while key indicators breach thresholds during parts of 2021–2026 under COVID-19 shocks. The present value of external and total PPG debt projections weakens beyond benchmarks related to weak debt-carrying capacity, though the baseline public debt path is preserved through planned reforms and concessional borrowing. Risks from contingent liabilities, especially EMAE/ENCO arrears and related exposures, are assessed as low but material impact scenarios are included.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Marcello Estevão (IDA) , Vivek Arora and Stefania Fabrizio (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n\nThe country remains in debt distress due to prolonged unsettled external arrears of more than 2 percent of GDP. Staff assesses that the country has the capacity to repay the external arrears over time, as indicated by the moderate external debt ratios. While the present value (PV) of the external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold from 2021 to 2023 due to the COVID-19 shock and debt service-to-exports ratio marginally breaches its threshold from 2022 to 2026, all other external PPG debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds throughout the projection horizon in the baseline scenario. The PV of total PPG debt (after accounting for the concessional terms of EMAE (a stateowned utility company) and central government debt and arrears to the country’s fuel supplier, ENCO) is projected to breach the benchmark associated with a weak debt-carrying capacity (35 percent of GDP) through 2025. As the downward trajectory of the public debt remains intact, predicated on the authorities’commitment to implement EMAE’s planned reforms and borrow externally only on concessional terms at a measured pace, public debt sustainability is preserved but subject to large risks. The likelihood of contingent liabilities materializing, particularly ENCO’s arrears to its parent company Sonangol (a state-owned company of Angola), remains low.  \n.  \n1. For the purpose of the DSA for São Tomé and Príncipe, PPG debt includes central government and EMAE (Empresa de Agua e Electricidade, a state-owned utility company) debt,1,2 and the public-sector debt coverage is comprehensive albeit not yet complete. EMAE has been accumulating arrears over the years to its fuel supplier, ENCO (Empresa Nacional de Combustíveis e Óleos), totaling 26 percent of GDP at end-2020. Three state owned enterprises (SOEs) besides EMAE—ENAPORT, ENASA, and Correios—are not included in the analysis due to lack of reliable data.3 The DSA uses the residency-based assumption on debt. The use of the currency criterion would trigger substantial differences in results as EMAE’s arrears denominated in USD are classified as domestic debt.4  \n|  | Subsectors of the public sector Subsectors covered |  |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 1 | Central government | X |\n| 2 | State and local government |  |\n| 3 | Other elements in the general government | X |\n| 4 | o/w: Social security fund | X |\n| 5 | o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) | X |\n| 6 | Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) | X |\n| 7 | Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) | X |\n| 8 | Non-guaranteed SOE debt\u003Cbr>1. |  |\n\nSources: IMF and World Bank staff.  \n2. Contingent liabilities are captured in the contingent liability stress test (Text Table 2) .  \nAdditional potential liabilities from the other SOEs are assumed with the default value of 2 percent of GDP. Contingent liabilities from financial markets are also set at their default value of 5 percent of GDP. In addition, the contingent liability stress test includes disputable debt of $30 million owed to Nigeria. The authorities maintain that its repayment was conditional on oil revenues, which have no near-term prospect  \nfor materialization. Estimated fines of $12.4 million (2 .4 percent of GDP) imposed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration after its ruling on the country’s seizure of a Maltese ship in 2013 are also included in the shock. Pre-HIPC ar","cbCaiaevTtDV4yXR","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiaevTtDV4yXR","pdf",891217,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk of external debt distress\n## Baseline projections and indicators\n## Debt coverage and methodology assumptions\n## Contingent liabilities and stress testing","[{\"question\":\"Why does Sao Tomé and Príncipe remain in debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Prolonged unsettled external arrears exceeding 2% of GDP keep the country in debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt burden indicators breach thresholds, and when?\",\"answer\":\"The present value of external PPG debt-to-exports breaches thresholds from 2021 to 2023, while the debt service-to-exports ratio marginally breaches thresholds from 2022 to 2026.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the analysis treat public and external PPG debt coverage?\",\"answer\":\"PPG debt coverage includes central government and EMAE, while some SOEs are excluded due to lack of reliable data; the DSA uses a residency-based debt assumption.\"}]",1784487228,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"sao-tome-and-principe-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/sao-tome-and-principe-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-assessment/110817/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"Why does Sao Tomé and Príncipe remain in debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Prolonged unsettled external arrears exceeding 2% of GDP keep the country in debt distress.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Which debt burden indicators breach thresholds, and when?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The present value of external PPG debt-to-exports breaches thresholds from 2021 to 2023, while the debt service-to-exports ratio marginally breaches thresholds from 2022 to 2026.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"How does the analysis treat public and external PPG debt coverage?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"PPG debt coverage includes central government and EMAE, while some SOEs are excluded due to lack of reliable data; the DSA uses a residency-based debt assumption.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":135,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":136},"General","general"]