[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110942-en":3,"doc-seo-110942-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110942,1374391974585,"Genevieve","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Samoa - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - March 2021","Samoa remains at high risk of both external and overall debt distress, with results consistent with the April 2020 Debt Sustainability Analysis. Judgment is used to extend the projection horizon to 20 years to better reflect natural disasters and climate change impacts on growth, the fiscal position, and the current account. Under the baseline scenario, breaches occur for the public-debt-to-GDP threshold and for external PPG debt-to-GDP from later years, while the debt service-to-revenue indicator stays within limits due to concessional financing and temporary relief.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nSAMOA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis March 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Ranil Salgado (IMF)  \n\n| Samoa: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes. The projection horizon was extended to 20 years to capture the impact of natural disasters on debt dynamics. |\n\nSamoa remains at high risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the previous DSA published in April 2020. Consistent with the April 2020 DSA, judgement was applied to arrive at the high-risk rating, given that the mechanical external and overall risk rating from the model was assessed as moderate. To adequately capture Samoa’s vulnerability to natural disastersand the effects of climate change, judgement was applied to extend the projection horizon to 20 years as opposed to the standard 10 years. This allows for the inclusion of the average long-term costs of natural disasters and climate change by incorporating their impacts on economic growth, the fiscal position, and the current account balance in the baseline scenario over the long term (FY2027-2041) .1 The combination of these two factors results in a breach of the threshold under the baseline scenario for the present value (PV) of the public debt-to-GDP ratio from 2034 onwards, as well as the PV of the external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-GDP ratio from 2038 onwards. The debt service-to-revenue ratio does not breach its indicative target because of the large share of concessional loans in external debt, and the temporary relief provided by the G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) . A tailored natural disaster shock, similar in scale to the median impact of natural disasters in Samoa’s history and assumed to strike in FY2022, leads to a further worsening of the debt dynamics. Given Samoa’s vulnerability to natural disastersand external shocks, debt sustainability hinges upon the government’s efforts to build fiscal and external buffers and enhance resilience. These efforts should focus on a mix of expenditure prioritization, and PFM reforms including improvements in budget planning, monitoring, and execution to help promote an inclusive economic recovery. Once the economy has recovered from the effects of COVID-19, revenue mobilization efforts should be strengthened. While domestic debt remains small, government-guaranteed debt accounted for 7.1 percent of GDP in FY2020, a reduction from FY2019 .  \n1 Consistent with previous analysis, see footnote 7. Samoa’s fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. This Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) covers central government and central government-guaranteed debts (Text Table 1). Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) debt accounted for 53.8 percent of GDP in FY2020, comprising central government debt (46.7 percent of GDP) and central government-guaranteed SOE debt (7.1 percent of GDP). There is no sub-national government structure in Samoa. The Central Bank of Samoa (CBS) is not allowed to contract debt on behalf of the government. The SOEs must seek government approval annually for all new loans. The authorities have begun reporting non-guaranteed SOE debt from FY2020 (estimated at around 1.1 percent of GDP in FY2020). This is not included in the debt definition but captured in the contingent liability stress test.2 The definition of external and domestic debt is based on residency.3 The authorities are currently working towards strengthening the monitoring and disclosing of fiscal risks with the assistance of PFTAC.  \n\n|  |  | Text Table ","cbCaipb0oiS5vXEH","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipb0oiS5vXEH","pdf",529283,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk rating and key judgments\n## Baseline breaches and debt indicators\n## Policy implications and buffers\n# Public debt coverage\n## Scope of debt and public sector subsectors\n# Background on debt\n## Central government debt and fiscal performance\n## External public debt evolution","[{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis keep Samoa’s risk rating at high for external and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment remains unchanged from the April 2020 DSA because the model’s mechanical ratings were judged as only moderate, while Samoa’s vulnerability to shocks warrants a high-risk conclusion.\"},{\"question\":\"How is the projection horizon determined, and what role do natural disasters and climate change play?\",\"answer\":\"Judgment extends the horizon to 20 years to capture average long-term disaster and climate-change costs, incorporating effects on growth, the fiscal position, and the current account balance.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt indicators breach thresholds under the baseline scenario, and which do not?\",\"answer\":\"The baseline scenario breaches the public debt-to-GDP threshold from 2034 onward and the external PPG debt-to-GDP threshold from 2038 onward. The debt service-to-revenue ratio does not breach its indicative target due to concessional loan shares and temporary DSSI relief.\"}]",1784487819,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"samoa-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-march-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/samoa-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-march-2021/110942/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"Why does the analysis keep Samoa’s risk rating at high for external and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The assessment remains unchanged from the April 2020 DSA because the model’s mechanical ratings were judged as only moderate, while Samoa’s vulnerability to shocks warrants a high-risk conclusion.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"How is the projection horizon determined, and what role do natural disasters and climate change play?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Judgment extends the horizon to 20 years to capture average long-term disaster and climate-change costs, incorporating effects on growth, the fiscal position, and the current account balance.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which debt indicators breach thresholds under the baseline scenario, and which do not?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The baseline scenario breaches the public debt-to-GDP threshold from 2034 onward and the external PPG debt-to-GDP threshold from 2038 onward. The debt service-to-revenue ratio does not breach its indicative target due to concessional loan shares and temporary DSSI relief.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,113,118,121,125,128,132],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":112},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":114,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":115,"show_sort_weight":116,"slug":117},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},30,"research-report",{"id":122,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":123,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":124},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":127},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":129,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":129,"slug":131},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":135},19,"General","general"]