[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110362-en":3,"doc-seo-110362-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110362,549758252649,"Ivy","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/8000253669c5317157?_k=1778319167496531819",8,"Research & Report","Samoa - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - High Risk of Debt Distress Assessment","Samoa faces a high risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the March 2021 DSA. The analysis extends projections to 20 years to incorporate expected long-term effects of natural disasters and climate change, which drive baseline breaches of debt thresholds from FY2042 onward. Stress tests also show threshold breaches for external and public debt from FY2034 and FY2029. Despite a non-breaching debt service-to-revenue ratio due to concessional lending, reforms are needed to strengthen revenues, improve spending quality, and broaden growth to build fiscal and external buffers.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Cheng Hoon Lim and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| SAMOA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes. Expected long-term effects of natural disaster and climate change-related events were considered in arriving at the bottom-line risk assessment. |\n\nSamoa remains at high risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the previous DSA published in March 2021. Consistent with previous DSAs, judgment was applied to extend the projection horizon to 20 years as opposed to the standard 10 years, given that the mechanical external and overall risk rating from the model was assessed as moderate. This allows for the inclusion of the average long-term effects of natural disasters and climate change by incorporating their impacts on economic growth, the fiscal position, and the current account balance in the baseline scenario over the long term (FY2029-2043) .2 These factors result in breaches of the thresholds for the present value (PV) of the external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-GDP ratio from FY2042 onwards in the baseline. Asa result, Samoa’s external and overall risk ratings are assessed as high. In the stress test scenarios, thresholds for the PV of external PPG debt-to-GDP and PV of public debt to GDP are breached from FY2034 and FY2029, respectively. A tailored natural disaster shock, similar in scale to the median impact of natural disasters in Samoa’s history and assumed to strike in FY2024, also leads to breaches of the debt-to-GDP thresholds. The debt service-torevenue ratio does not breach its indicative target because of the preponderance of concessional loans in external  \n1 This DSA has been prepared jointly by the IMF and World Bank, following Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries (2018) .  \n2 Samoa’s fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30.  \ndebt. Given Samoa’s vulnerability to natural disasters and external shocks, reforms to raise revenues, improve the quality of spending, and attain higher, more diversified economic growth will be vital to building fiscal and external buffers and minimizing risks to debt sustainability. While domestic debt remains small, government-guaranteed debt accounted for 7.6 percent of GDP in FY2022 .  \n1. This Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) covers central government and central government-guaranteed debts (Text Table 1) . There is no sub-national government structure in Samoa. The Central Bank of Samoa (CBS) is not allowed to contract debt on behalf of the government and StateOwned Enterprises (SOEs) must seek government approval for all new loans.3 Non-guaranteed debt of non-financial SOEs stood at 0.6 percent of GDP in FY2022 . Given the lack of consolidated, timely data on SOE revenue and expenditures, SOEs are not included in the baseline debt sustainability analysis but are captured in the contingent liability stress test.4 The definition of external and domestic debt is based on residency.5  \n\n|  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 1 | Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered |  |\n|  | Central government X |  |\n| 2 | State and local government Not applicable |  |\n| 3 | Other elements in the general government |  |\n| 4 | o/w: Social security fund Not applicable |  |\n| 5 | o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |  |\n| 6 | Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X |  |\n| 7 | Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) Not applicable |  |\n| 8 | Non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |\n|  |  |  |\n\n2. The stress test capturing combined contingent liabilities ","cbCainpZ7Uth7TVZ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCainpZ7Uth7TVZ","pdf",738777,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## External debt distress and overall risk\n## Judgment and projection horizon\n# Stress testing and shocks\n## Natural disaster and climate-related shocks\n## Contingent liabilities and financial market shock\n# Policy implications","[{\"question\":\"What is Samoa’s current assessed risk of debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Samoa is assessed as being at a high risk of both external debt distress and overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis extend the projection horizon to 20 years?\",\"answer\":\"Judgment is used to extend the horizon to 20 years to capture expected long-term effects of natural disasters and climate change, beyond the model’s mechanical moderate rating.\"},{\"question\":\"Which scenarios lead to breaches of debt thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"In the baseline, thresholds for external public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-GDP PV are breached from FY2042 onward. In stress tests, thresholds are breached from FY2034 for external external PPG debt-to-GDP PV and from FY2029 for the PV of public debt to GDP.\"}]",1784485077,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"samoa-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-debt-distress-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/samoa-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-debt-distress-assessment/110362/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Samoa’s current assessed risk of debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Samoa is assessed as being at a high risk of both external debt distress and overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the analysis extend the projection horizon to 20 years?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Judgment is used to extend the horizon to 20 years to capture expected long-term effects of natural disasters and climate change, beyond the model’s mechanical moderate rating.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which scenarios lead to breaches of debt thresholds?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"In the baseline, thresholds for external public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-GDP PV are breached from FY2042 onward. In stress tests, thresholds are breached from FY2034 for external external PPG debt-to-GDP PV and from FY2029 for the PV of public debt to GDP.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,114,119,122,126,129,133],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":113},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":125},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":127,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":128},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":130,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":131,"show_sort_weight":130,"slug":132},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":134,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":135,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":136},19,"General","general"]