[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109699-en":3,"doc-seo-109699-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109699,1374391975076,"Riley","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253ca4ec9f6853?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1783305029341752051",8,"Research & Report","Samoa - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020","Samoa is assessed as being at high risk of external and overall public debt distress, with debt sustainability weakened further under the baseline scenario after incorporating COVID-19 impacts. Although the model-based external DSA risk rating is moderate, judgment raises it to high risk to reflect long-term effects of frequent natural disasters linked to climate change. Baseline projections show threshold breaches in 2035 for external debt and in 2028 for public debt. Debt is still considered sustainable due to efforts to build fiscal buffers, strengthen resilience, and maintain access to grants and concessional financing supported by revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nSAMOA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Paul Cashin (IMF)  \n\n| Samoa: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis 1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High 2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes–The forecast horizon informing mechanical risk signals is extended to 20 years to capture the long-term impact of frequent natural disasterson climate change. |\n| Macroeconomic projections | The economy is expected to contract in FY2020-21. Primary deficit widens significantly in FY2020-21, followed by a gradual recovery as opposed to a stable path in 2019 DSA. Tourism earnings are expected to plummet in FY2020-21, widening the current account deficit and pushing reserves well below the adequate level. |\n| Financing strategy | While the RCF will help finance BOP needs, the fiscal financing gap will be filled by external grants and concessional borrowing. |\n| Realism tools flagged | None |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | High |\n\n1 Debt coverage has remained unchanged compared to the 2019 DSA (IMF Country Report No . 19/138) .  \n2 The Composite Indicator score is 3.29, which is based on the October 2019 WEO and the World Bank’s 2018 CPIA, and the country’s debt-carrying capacity is assessed to be strong.  \nSamoa remains at high-risk of external and overall public debt distress, while the baseline macro framework is further deteriorated compared to the May 2019 DSA due to the inclusion of the impacts of COVID-19. Under the baseline scenario, both the PV of external and public debt-toGDP ratios incur threshold breaches in 2035 and 2028 , respectively. While a model-based risk rating of external debt is moderate, judgement was applied to arrive at a high-risk rating to capture the long-term impact of frequent natural disasters on climate change. In addition, the real GDP growth shock under the standard stress test, a tailored natural disaster shock similar in scale to the median impact of natural disasters in Samoa’s history, and a contingent liability shock further deteriorates debt sustainability. Despite the high risk of debt distress, Samoa’s debt remains sustainable. This assessment hinges upon the government’s efforts to build fiscal buffers and enhance resilience, as well as continued access to grants and concessional financing. A mix of stronger revenue mobilization measures, and expenditure rationalization in a growth-friendly, sustainable manner will create synergies for maintaining debt sustainability.  \n\n| Figure 1. Samoa: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternative\u003Cbr>Scenarios, 2020-40 1/ |  |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 100\u003Cbr>90\u003Cbr>80\u003Cbr>70\u003Cbr>60\u003Cbr>50\u003Cbr>40\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>0\u003Cbr>25\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>15\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>0 | PV of debt-to GDP ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Most extreme shock: Natural disaster\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040\u003Cbr>Debt service-to-exports ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Most extreme shock: Exports\u003Cbr>2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 |  | 350\u003Cbr>300\u003Cbr>250\u003Cbr>200\u003Cbr>150\u003Cbr>100\u003Cbr>50\u003Cbr>0 |  | PV of debt-to-exports ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Most extreme shock: Natural disaster |\n|  |  |  | 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040\u003Cbr>Debt service-to-revenue ratio |  |  |\n|  |  |  | 25\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>15\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>0 | \u003Cbr>Most extreme shock: One-time depreciation |  |\n|  |  |  | 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 |  |  |\n|  Baseline   Historical scenario   Most extreme shock 1/  Threshold |  |  |  |  |  |\n| \u003Cbr>Cust","cbCairbeKGirl1N6","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCairbeKGirl1N6","pdf",452442,5,1,10,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress Assessment\n## External Debt DSA Risk Rating\n## Overall Public Debt DSA Risk Rating\n# Macroeconomic Projections\n# Financing Strategy and Policy Judgments\n# Stress Tests and Shock Scenarios\n## Customization of Stress Test Settings\n## Borrowing Assumptions on Additional Financing","[{\"question\":\"Why is Samoa’s risk of external debt distress rated high despite a moderate model-based score?\",\"answer\":\"Judgment is applied to raise the risk rating to high, capturing the long-term impact of frequent natural disasters associated with climate change.\"},{\"question\":\"Which baseline projections indicate threshold breaches in debt ratios?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline scenario, the present value (PV) of external debt-to-GDP and public debt-to-GDP ratios breach thresholds in 2035 and 2028 respectively.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors support the conclusion that Samoa’s debt remains sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment relies on building fiscal buffers, enhancing resilience, and maintaining access to grants and concessional financing, alongside revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization in a growth-friendly way.\"}]","Samoa - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 | PDF",1784481963,25,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"samoa-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/samoa-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020/109699/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"Why is Samoa’s risk of external debt distress rated high despite a moderate model-based score?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"Judgment is applied to raise the risk rating to high, capturing the long-term impact of frequent natural disasters associated with climate change.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"Which baseline projections indicate threshold breaches in debt ratios?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"Under the baseline scenario, the present value (PV) of external debt-to-GDP and public debt-to-GDP ratios breach thresholds in 2035 and 2028 respectively.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"What factors support the conclusion that Samoa’s debt remains sustainable?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"The assessment relies on building fiscal buffers, enhancing resilience, and maintaining access to grants and concessional financing, alongside revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization in a growth-friendly way.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,116,121,124,129,132,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":134},"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]