[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111207-en":3,"doc-seo-111207-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111207,8796095360427,"Lucas Martin","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_994ba38a5ba835b3df7d355c54d3ed8d",8,"Research & Report","Samoa - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk Assessment","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses Samoa’s risk of external and overall debt distress. The study finds a moderate rating supported by strong debt-carrying capacity and improved debt dynamics from earlier high-risk assessments. Despite extending the projection horizon to 20 years and modeling climate change impacts, external public and publicly guaranteed debt and overall debt burden indicators remain below thresholds in the baseline. Stress tests incorporating tailored natural disaster shocks cause threshold breaches, indicating limited room to absorb shocks and highlighting high vulnerability.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Lalita Moorty (IDA), and Harald Finger and S. Jay Peiris (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)1  \n\n| SAMOA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | Yes. Expected long-term effects of climate changerelated events were modelled and the evaluation horizon extended to 20 years , which impacts the granularity of the risk rating. |\n\nSamoa is assessed at moderate risk of external and overall debt distress based on a strong debt carrying capacity, an improvement from the high risk assessment in the previous DSA published in February 2023.2 The change in rating reflects the significant improvement in debt dynamics given the large fiscal surpluses and the resulting buildup of government cash reserves in recent years. Consistent with previous DSAs, the projection horizon was extended to 20 years as opposed to the standard 10 years. This allows for the inclusion of the average long-term effects of climate change by incorporating their impacts on economic growth and the fiscal position over the long term (FY2031-2045) .3 Despite the extension of the horizon and inclusion of negative effects of climate change in the baseline, none of the external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) or overall public debt burden indicators breach their respective thresholds. In the stress test scenarios, including a tailored natural disaster shock similar in scale to the median impact  \n1 This DSA has been prepared jointly by the IMF and World Bank, following Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries (2018) and Supplement to 2018 Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries.  \n2 Samoa's debt-carrying capacity is strong, with a composite indicator score of 3.31 based on the October 2024 WEO and the 2023 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) data published in July 2024.  \n3 Samoa’s fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30.  \nof natural disasters in Samoa’s history, the PV of external PPG debt-to-GDP and PV of public debt to GDP breach their threshold and benchmark, respectively. Considering baseline projections and stress tests, Samoa’s external and overall risk ratings are assessed as moderate. However, the distance between the threshold and the PV of external PPG debt-to-GDP is small under the baseline with an extended horizon, suggesting limited space to absorb shocks after judgement is applied. Despite the improved risk rating, Samoa remains highly vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change, highlighting the need for reforms to prioritize and successfully execute high-quality climate-resilient public investment, enhance public financial management, increase revenues, and attain more sustainable, inclusive, and diversified growth. These reforms will be vital to building fiscal and external buffers and minimizing risks to debt sustainability.  \n1. This Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) covers central government and central government-guaranteed debts (Text Table 1) . There is no sub-national government structure in Samoa. The Central Bank of Samoa (CBS) is not allowed to contract debt on behalf of the government, and StateOwned Enterprises (SOEs) must seek government approval for all new loans.4 Non-guaranteed debt of non-financial SOEs stood at 1 percent of GDP as of FY2024 . Given the lack of comprehensive and timely data on SOE revenue and expenditures, non-guaranteed SOE debt is not included in the baseline debt sustainability analysis but are captured in the contingent liability stress test.5 The definition of external and domestic debt is based on residency.","cbCainRjjiZcnHw0","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCainRjjiZcnHw0","pdf",983794,1,23,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## Baseline assessment and rating change\n## Horizon extension and climate change modeling\n## Stress tests and judgment application\n# Debt coverage and assumptions\n## Public sector scope\n## Contingent liabilities and financial market shock","[{\"question\":\"Why is Samoa assessed at moderate risk of debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis attributes the moderate rating to strong debt-carrying capacity and improved debt dynamics, including large fiscal surpluses that build government cash reserves.\"},{\"question\":\"How does extending the projection horizon affect the risk rating granularity?\",\"answer\":\"The horizon is extended to 20 years to include average long-term climate change effects, which changes the granularity of the risk rating and limits the distance to thresholds after judgment.\"},{\"question\":\"What happens under the stress test scenarios?\",\"answer\":\"Stress tests with a tailored natural disaster shock breach the thresholds for the PV of external PPG debt-to-GDP and, respectively, the PV of public debt to GDP, even though the baseline indicators stay below thresholds.\"}]",1784489102,58,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"samoa-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/samoa-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment/111207/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"Why is Samoa assessed at moderate risk of debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis attributes the moderate rating to strong debt-carrying capacity and improved debt dynamics, including large fiscal surpluses that build government cash reserves.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"How does extending the projection horizon affect the risk rating granularity?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The horizon is extended to 20 years to include average long-term climate change effects, which changes the granularity of the risk rating and limits the distance to thresholds after judgment.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What happens under the stress test scenarios?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Stress tests with a tailored natural disaster shock breach the thresholds for the PV of external PPG debt-to-GDP and, respectively, the PV of public debt to GDP, even though the baseline indicators stay below thresholds.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & 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