[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111241-en":3,"doc-seo-111241-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111241,16904993612988,"Olivia Brown","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Rwanda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Public Disclosure","Rwanda’s updated joint World Bank/IMF debt sustainability analysis finds a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, with only limited space to absorb shocks. Baseline results rely on macro projections from the PCI/RSF and SCF reviews, assuming continued highly concessional financing under IDA20 and a rising domestic financing share. Near-term breaches in PV-based debt-to-GDP benchmarks and sensitivity to external and climate shocks indicate vulnerability. Authorities are encouraged to maintain fiscal consolidation, strengthen real effective exchange rate adjustment, and implement RSF reforms supporting the climate agenda.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA), and Catherine Pattillo and Fabian Bornhorst (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| RWANDA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe updated Bank/Fund debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Rwanda continues to indicate a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress. The current debt-carrying capacity is consistent with a classification of ‘strong’.2 The baseline scenario is based on the macroeconomic projections presented in the accompanying staff report for the fourth PCI/RSF review and second SCF review. Rwanda’s financing strategy assumes continued support from official development partners over the medium term, with highly concessional loans for new external borrowing under IDA20 and an increasing share of domestic financing in the long term. Debt indicators and standard stress tests classify debt sustainability risks as moderate with limited space to absorb shocks, with near-term breaches of the benchmark for PV of public debt to GDP and the threshold for PV external debt-to-GDP highlighting vulnerability to external and climate shocks. Heightened uncertainty around key external risks to concessional financing over the medium-term, baseline risks to domestic resource mobilization, and sustained exchange rate pressures could intensify debt sustainability risks over the medium-term. The authorities are encouraged to progress on fiscal consolidation, support the external adjustment with real effective exchange rate adjustment, and implement RSF reform measures in support of their climate agenda.  \n1 This debt sustainability analysis was conducted using the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC-DSF) that was approved in 2017. The fiscal year for Rwanda is from July to June; however, this DSA is prepared on a calendar year basis.  \n2 Rwanda has a debt carrying capacity indicator score of 3.17. This implies a classification of strong debt carrying capacity, which is the same classification as under the previous DSA.  \n1. The DSA covers the central government, guarantees, and state-owned enterprises (Text Table 1). The Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) publishes annual debt data in a semi-annual statistical bulletin, covering domestic and external debt of the central government, broken down by multilateral, bilateral and commercial debt, as well as information on guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt held by all state-owned enterprises (SOEs) .3 Public guarantees are only extended to SOEs. There is no debt stemming from extra budgetary funds, long term central bank financing of the government, nor the state-owned social security fund. The local government debt is also covered but the existing stock to date is marginal,4 and its contracting is subject to approval by MINECOFIN. The contingent liabilities shock (6 .5 percent of GDP) accounts for potential fiscal costs associated with a theoretical banking crisis, and fiscal risks of existing public-private partnerships (PPPs) . All SOE guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt is included in the baseline.  \n|  |  Subsectors of the public sector  Check box \u003Cbr>Central government X\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government X\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund X\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) X\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X Non-guaranteed SOE debt X |\n| --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 |  |\n\n| 1 | The central government plus social security and extra budg","cbCaivEOaIrxJZZx","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivEOaIrxJZZx","pdf",835929,1,26,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and overall conclusion\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n# Baseline assumptions and financing strategy\n## Macroeconomic projections and review context\n## Concessional external borrowing and domestic financing\n# Debt coverage and methodology details\n## LIC-DSF framework background\n## Public debt scope: central government, SOEs, guarantees, PPPs\n# Stress tests and vulnerability drivers\n## PV debt-to-GDP and external thresholds\n## Exchange rate pressures and shock scenarios\n# Policy guidance and recommended actions\n## Fiscal consolidation and exchange rate adjustment\n## RSF reform measures for climate agenda","[{\"question\":\"What risk level does the analysis assign to Rwanda’s external and overall public debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress are rated as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"What assumptions underpin the baseline scenario in the Rwanda DSA?\",\"answer\":\"The baseline is built on macroeconomic projections from the accompanying staff report (fourth PCI/RSF review and second SCF review) and assumes continued official partner support, highly concessional new external loans under IDA20, and growing domestic financing over time.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report highlight vulnerability to external and climate shocks?\",\"answer\":\"Near-term breaches of PV-based benchmarks for public debt to GDP and the PV external debt-to-GDP threshold show sensitivity, compounded by uncertainty around concessional financing, domestic resource mobilization risks, and sustained exchange rate pressures.\"}]",1784489267,66,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"rwanda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-public-disclosure","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/rwanda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-public-disclosure/111241/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What risk level does the analysis assign to Rwanda’s external and overall public debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress are rated as moderate.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What assumptions underpin the baseline scenario in the Rwanda DSA?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The baseline is built on macroeconomic projections from the accompanying staff report (fourth PCI/RSF review and second SCF review) and assumes continued official partner support, highly concessional new external loans under IDA20, and growing domestic financing over time.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Why does the report highlight vulnerability to external and climate shocks?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Near-term breaches of PV-based benchmarks for public debt to GDP and the PV external debt-to-GDP threshold show sensitivity, compounded by uncertainty around concessional financing, domestic resource mobilization risks, and sustained exchange rate pressures.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & 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