[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109707-en":3,"doc-seo-109707-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109707,1099514067415,"Rowan","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002539d78ffe74a7?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779092875211072502",8,"Research & Report","Rwanda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2020 - External and Overall Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Joint World Bank and IMF debt sustainability analysis for Rwanda assesses the risk of external and overall debt distress using the LIC-DSF framework. The baseline incorporates COVID-19 shocks, including lower real GDP growth, weaker exports and tax revenues, and a wider fiscal deficit, alongside financing assumptions such as a proposed RCF disbursement and concessional support. Results indicate moderate risks, with temporary threshold breaches linked to solvency and liquidity indicators in 2020 and stress-test vulnerabilities to external shocks, mitigated by reserves and financing.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nRWANDA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis1  \nJune 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Zeine Zeidane and Zuzana Murgasova (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Rwanda: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n| Macroeconomic projections | The DSA incorporates the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a sharp decline in real GDP growth (down by 6 percentage points relative to the pre-pandemic projection), exports of goods and services (40 percent decline), tax revenues (20 percent decline), and a significant widening of the fiscal deficit (up by about 6 percentage points of GDP) . |\n| Financing strategy | The DSA incorporates a proposed RCF disbursement equivalent to 50 percent of quota, together with prospective concessional financing from other development partners, including the World Bank’s COVID-19 Emergency Response Project. |\n| Realism tools flagged | No |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | Moderate |\n\n1 This debt sustainability analysis was conducted using the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC-DSF) that was approved in 2017. The fiscal year for Rwanda is from July–June; however, this DSA is prepared on a calendar year basis.  \n2 Rwanda’s debt-carrying capacity remains strong as its Composite Indicator (CI) score of 3.26 remains above the upper threshold of 3.05. This is based on the October 2019 WEO and CPIA 2018. There has been no change in debt coverage since the last DSA (July 2019, IMF CR 19/211), which covers the central government and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) .  \nWhile Rwanda’s debt remains sustainable, the risk of external and overall debt distress has moved to moderate from low relative to the previous DSA in April 2020 due to the impact of the global COVID- 19 crisis. The baseline macroeconomic scenario reflects negative effects of the COVID-19 shock on growth, exports, and revenues, which sharply raise external and domestic financing needs in 2020.3 This DSA assumes that the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), debt service relief under the IMF’s Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT), World Bank financial support, 4 and prospective concessional financing from other development partners fill the external financing gap created by the shock. The authorities have not yet requested debt service suspension from official bilateral creditors as envisaged under the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), supported by the G-20 and Paris Club.5 Compared to the previous DSA, the pandemic impact coupled with higher concessional loans from multilateral and bilateral donors and larger external borrowing related to an scaling up of the new international airport project is expected to entail a higher pace of accumulation of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt in the medium term, leading to a present value (PV) of total public debt peaking at 53 percent of GDP in 2025.6  \nThe stress tests highlight that Rwanda is more susceptible to external shocks when compared to the prepandemic period even after the initial impact of the COVID-19 shock dissipates, and, as a result, indicate the moderate risk of debt distress (Figure 1 and 2) .7 Solvency indicators for the PV of external debt-toGDP ratio and the PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio are below the indicative threshold/benchmark under both the baseline scenario and the most extreme risk shock. However, the sharp decline in exports due to the COVID-19 shock makes one","cbCaig7YCGcOvbN7","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaig7YCGcOvbN7","pdf",454872,4,1,13,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress\n## External debt distress risk rating\n## Overall debt distress risk rating\n## Key assumptions and macroeconomic projections\n## Financing strategy and support measures\n## Stress tests and threshold breaches","[{\"question\":\"What risk level does the analysis assign to Rwanda’s external debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates the risk of external debt distress as Moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"What main factors does the baseline scenario incorporate regarding COVID-19?\",\"answer\":\"It incorporates COVID-19 impacts including a sharp decline in real GDP growth, exports of goods and services, tax revenues, and a widening of the fiscal deficit.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the analysis address financing and liquidity needs under the shock?\",\"answer\":\"It assumes a proposed RCF disbursement and concessional financing, which—together with adequate reserves and external financing already lined up—mitigates temporary liquidity and solvency threshold breaches.\"}]","Rwanda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2020 - External and Overall Debt Distress Risk Assessment | PDF",1784481997,33,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"rwanda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2020-external-and-overall-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/rwanda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2020-external-and-overall-debt-distress-risk-assessment/109707/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-31","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What risk level does the analysis assign to Rwanda’s external debt distress?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The analysis rates the risk of external debt distress as Moderate.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"What main factors does the baseline scenario incorporate regarding COVID-19?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"It incorporates COVID-19 impacts including a sharp decline in real GDP growth, exports of goods and services, tax revenues, and a widening of the fiscal deficit.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"How does the analysis address financing and liquidity needs under the shock?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"It assumes a proposed RCF disbursement and concessional financing, which—together with adequate reserves and external financing already lined up—mitigates temporary liquidity and solvency threshold breaches.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]