[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110636-en":3,"doc-seo-110636-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110636,7971461740886,"Theodore","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2",8,"Research & Report","Rwanda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - July 2021","Rwanda’s updated joint debt sustainability assessment finds continued moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, while highlighting higher solvency risks and limited buffers against external shocks and weaker growth. Total nominal public debt-to-GDP reached 71.3% in 2020, reflecting lower-than-expected GDP and a larger pandemic-related fiscal deficit. The baseline scenario is aligned with macroeconomic projections and post-pandemic medium-term fiscal consolidation under the 4th PCI review.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nRWANDA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis July 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Mary Goodman and Delia Velculescu (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Rwanda: Risk Rating Summary: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis 1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate 2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n| Macroeconomic projections | The DSA incorporates the macroeconomic projectionsin the 4th PCI review staff report. Due to the prolonged pandemic, the output recovery is expected to be slower than in the December 2020 DSA, despite sizable fiscal support. The medium-term fiscal consolidation path is envisaged after the pandemic abates. |\n| Financing strategy | As in the December 2020 DSA, the current DSA assumes continued support from bilateral and multilateral development partners over the medium term. From 2028 onwards, the financing mix is assumed to: (i) shift gradually away from concessional financing to market-based financing as Rwanda’s income level rises, and (ii) shift from external to domestic financing as the local bond markets develop. As of May 25, 2021, the World Bank disbursed US$513 .5 million in FY21 in the form of concessional financing, including budget support (loans and grants) and project financing (loans and grants) . |\n| Realism tools flagged | The envisaged post-pandemic fiscal adjustment is assessed as ambitious based on the experience in LICs. |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate |\n| 1 This debt sustainability analysis was conducted using the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC-DSF) that was approved in 2017. The fiscal year for Rwanda is from July–June; however, this DSA is prepared on a calendar year basis.\u003Cbr>2 Rwanda’s Composite Indicator score (3 . 16) has not been updated since the December 2020 DSA. Therefore, Rwanda’s debtcarrying capacity remains unchanged, and assessed as strong. Debt coverage includes the central government and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . There has been no change in debt coverage since the December 2020 DSA. |  |\n\nThe updated Bank-Fund assessment of Rwanda’s debt sustainability indicates continued moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, although it also suggests elevated solvency risks and limited buffers to cushion the impact of external and growth shocks.  \nTotal nominal public debt-to-GDP stood at 71.3 percent in 2020, which is higher than expected compared to the December 2020 DSA against the background of lower-than-expected GDP and a higher fiscal deficit due to the larger pandemic-related spending. The baseline scenario in the updated DSA is consistent with the macroeconomic projections and the post-pandemic medium-term fiscal consolidation envisaged under the 4th PCI review. As the pandemic continues to impact Rwanda’s economy, the output recovery is expected to be somewhat slower than in the December 2020 DSA, despite sizable fiscal support (Text Table below). Output is projected to grow by 5.1 percent in 2021, reflecting strong base effects and a pickup in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, before faster broad-based recovery starts in 2022. Compared to the December 2020 DSA, the updated DSA assumes larger fiscal spending to continue responding to the health, social, and economic fallout of the pandemic, which is expected to contribute to a faster pace of accumulation of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt over time. It also incorporates a debt management strategy which helps to mitigate the refinancing risk associated with the $400 million Eurobond bullet payment in 2023.  \n\n| Key ","cbCaiezQVDtClXdT","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiezQVDtClXdT","pdf",345067,1,13,"English","en",105,"# Risk Rating Summary\n## Key macroeconomic projections and financing strategy\n## Risk assessment and realism tools\n# Comparison with the Previous DSA\n## Key macro and debt indicators","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Rwanda in the July 2021 joint analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as moderate, with moderate risk of external debt distress as well.\"},{\"question\":\"Why are debt indicators higher than expected compared with the December 2020 DSA?\",\"answer\":\"The updated assessment reflects lower-than-expected GDP and a higher fiscal deficit due to larger pandemic-related spending.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the projected financing strategy shifts after 2028?\",\"answer\":\"From 2028 onward, the analysis assumes a gradual shift from concessional financing toward market-based financing and a move from external to domestic financing as local bond markets develop.\"}]",1784486363,33,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"rwanda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-july-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/rwanda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-july-2021/110636/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Rwanda in the July 2021 joint analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as moderate, with moderate risk of external debt distress as well.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why are debt indicators higher than expected compared with the December 2020 DSA?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The updated assessment reflects lower-than-expected GDP and a higher fiscal deficit due to larger pandemic-related spending.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What are the projected financing strategy shifts after 2028?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"From 2028 onward, the analysis assumes a gradual shift from concessional financing toward market-based financing and a move from external to domestic financing as local bond markets 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