[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109903-en":3,"doc-seo-109903-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109903,1374391974564,"Clementine","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253aa45c000a9e?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779874745381141002",8,"Research & Report","Rwanda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - December 2020","Rwanda’s joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis assesses the outlook for external and overall public debt, concluding a moderate risk of debt distress. Debt-carrying capacity is assessed as strong, while the baseline macroeconomic path incorporates COVID-19 shocks that weaken growth, exports, and revenues and increase financing needs. Stress tests indicate greater vulnerability to external shocks than pre-pandemic conditions. Authorities are encouraged to strengthen debt management, adopt credible fiscal consolidation, and improve oversight of SOEs and PPPs to contain fiscal risks.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nRWANDA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability ANALYSIS1  \nDecember 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Mary Goodman and Delia Velculescu (IMF)  \n\n| Rwanda: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe present Bank/Fund assessment of Rwanda’s debt sustainability analysis indicates a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress. The current debt-carrying capacity is consistent with a classification of ‘strong’.2 The baseline macroeconomic scenario reflects the negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on growth, exports, and revenues, which sharply raises external and domestic financing needs in 2020. The adverse economic impact of the pandemic, coupled with higher loans, though mostly concessional from multilateral and bilateral partners, is expected to entail a higher pace of accumulation of public and publicly-guaranteed debt. The stress tests highlight that Rwanda is more susceptible to external shocks compared to the pre-pandemic period even after the initial impact of the COVID-19 dissipates. The authorities are encouraged to further enhance their debt management capacity to mitigate heightened risks in the context of the COVID-19 crisis; adopt a credible fiscal consolidation path to facilitate a return to the pre-pandemic debt trajectory, and strengthen the oversight and management of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public-private partnerships (PPPs) to reduce fiscal risks. In this context, a fiscal consolidation following the temporary and necessary pandemic support, together with the improved concessionality of debt, is expected to bring the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio down to below the EAC’s fiscal anchor of 50 percent in 2025.  \n1 This debt sustainability analysis was conducted using the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC-DSF) that was approved in 2017. The fiscal year for Rwanda is from July–June; however, this DSA is prepared on a calendar year basis.  \n2 Rwanda’s debt-carrying capacity remains strong as its Composite Indicator is 3. 16, which is based on the 2020 October WEO and the 2019 CPIA that was released in July 2020, remains above the upper threshold value of 3.05.  \nBACKGROUND  \n1. Rwanda’s public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio has increased by 24 percentage points of GDP in the past 6 years to meet development needs envisaged in the National Strategy for Transformation (NST). The increase reflects a long-planned comprehensive public investment strategy, including three large projects to support trade and tourism, which are being completed through a series of public-private partnerships (PPPs) and external guarantees outside the budgetary central government. The three large projects include the construction of the Kigali Convention Center (KCC), completed in 2016, the ongoing expansion of the national airline, RwandAir, and the construction of a new airport in the Bugesera district of eastern Rwanda. As a result, external PPG debt has risen from 21.1 percent of GDP in 2013 to 45.4 percent in 2019 (Text Figure 1). It continues to be dominated by multilateral lending (Text Figure 2), resulting in a present value (PV) of external PPG debtto-GDP ratio of 29.3 percent in 2019. Total PPG debt stood at 58.1 percent of GDP in 2019, which is higher than the 2019 DSA projections (estimated at 55.8 percent of GDP) due to higher fiscal deficit than projected at the time of the previous full DSA. About two-thirds of external debt remains concessional. The yield","cbCais61kCqv9Kmw","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCais61kCqv9Kmw","pdf",479494,5,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Debt distress risk assessment\n## Baseline macroeconomic scenario and COVID-19 impact\n## Stress tests and vulnerability\n# Background\n## Public investment strategy and external debt evolution\n## Coverage, data sources, and stress-test parameters","[{\"question\":\"What risk level does the analysis assign to Rwanda’s external and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes a moderate risk of both external and overall public debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the COVID-19 pandemic affect Rwanda’s debt outlook in the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"The baseline reflects COVID-19’s negative effects on growth, exports, and revenues, which sharply increase external and domestic financing needs in 2020.\"},{\"question\":\"What measures does the analysis recommend to mitigate heightened debt risks?\",\"answer\":\"It encourages enhancing debt management capacity, adopting a credible fiscal consolidation path, and strengthening oversight and management of SOEs and PPPs to reduce fiscal risks.\"}]","Rwanda - 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