[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109975-en":3,"doc-seo-109975-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109975,687197207919,"Theodora","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/a000253d6f5f7c60be?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779446848396160552",8,"Research & Report","Rwanda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020","Rwanda’s joint World Bank–IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) concludes that public debt is sustainable and that both external and overall debt distress risks remain low. The analysis covers the central government, government guarantees, and debt of state-owned enterprises, and builds on the July 2019 DSA baseline. A COVID-19 customized stress test shocks key macro variables, with exports facing a larger decline, creating limited one-off breaches in 2020 and discounted breaches in 2023 under LIC-DSF guidance.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nRWANDA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| Rwanda: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis Update 1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nRwanda’s public debt is sustainable and remains at a low risk of external and overall debt distress. The DSA covers the central government as well as guarantees and debt held by all state-owned enterprises. This DSA is based on the baseline of the most recent DSA, published in July 2019, which will be updated in the next full DSA. A customized stress test to the most recent DSA is introduced to approximate the impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Rwanda’s economy. 2 In this scenario, main macro variables such as real GDP growth and the primary balance in percent of GDP are shocked by -2.6 and -3.2 percentage points in 2020, respectively, compared to the baseline in the previous DSA. Exports are shocked by a significantly larger magnitude of-9.7 percentage points, to reflect lower receipts from tourism and goods exports due to weakening global demand. This produces a one-off breach to the PV of debt-to-exports ratio in 2020. All other external and public debt burden indicators remain under their respective thresholds under the baseline and stress tests, except for one-off breaches in the external debt service indicators in 2023 when the Eurobond issued in 2013 matures. These single one-year breaches are automatically discounted from the analysis according to the LIC-DSF guidance note. The current macroeconomic framework reflects currently available information . However, updates with respect to the economic impact and policy response to the COVID-19 crisis are rapidly evolving and risks are heavily tilted to the downside.  \n1 Based on the previous DSA in the Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Policy Coordination Instrument (Country Report No . 19/211) .  \n2 The COVID-19 Pandemic scenario is based on the projection described in the Staff Report, while other scenarios, includingthe baseline in this Annex, are based on the previous DSA.  \nAnnex Figure 1. Rwanda: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under  \nAlternatives Scenarios, 2019‒29 1/ 2/  \n60  \n50  \n40  \n30  \n20  \n10  \n0  \n30  \n25  \n20  \n15  \n10  \n5  \n0  \nPV of debt-to GDP ratio  \nMost extreme shock is One-time depreciation  \n2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029  \nDebt service-to-exports ratio  \n2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029  \n300  \n250  \n200  \n150  \n100  \n50  \n0  \n35  \n30  \n25  \n20  \n15  \n10  \n5  \n0  \nPV of debt-to-exports ratio  \n2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029  \nDebt service-to-revenue ratio  \n2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029  \nBaseline  \nCOVID-19 Pandemic 3/  \nHistorical scenario  \nMost extreme shock 1/  \nStress test with (the largest) one-off breach  \nThreshold  \nCustomization of Default Settings  \nSize Interactions  \nTailored Tests  \nCombined CLs  \nNatural Disasters Commodity Prices Market Financing  \n2/  \nYes  \nn. a.  \nn. a.  \nNo  \nn. a.  \nn. a.  \nNo  \nNote: \"Yes\" indicates any change to the size or interactions of the default settings for the stress tests.\"n.a.\" indicates that the stress test does not apply.  \n\n| Borrowing Assumptions for Stress Tests*\u003Cbr>Default |  | User defined |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Shares of marginal debt\u003Cbr>External PPG MLT debt | 100% |  |\n| Terms of marginal debt |  |  |\n| Avg. nominal interest rate on new borrowing in USD | 1.8% | 1.8% |\n| USD Discount rate | 5.0% | 5.0% |\n| Avg. maturity (incl. grace period) | 29 | 29 |\n| Avg. grace period | 6 | 6 |\n\n* Note: All the additional financing needs generated by the shocks under the stress tests are assumed to be covered by P","cbCaim7Xpzk7kq4l","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaim7Xpzk7kq4l","pdf",325180,6,1,7,"English","en",105,"# Key conclusion on debt sustainability\n## Risk ratings: external and overall\n## Scope of coverage and baseline source\n# COVID-19 customized stress test\n## Shock assumptions for macro variables\n## Export shock and PV breach implications\n# Treatment of one-off breaches and thresholds\n## External debt service breaches in 2023\n## LIC-DSF discounting rule\n# Annex figures and stress test configuration\n## Indicators under alternative scenarios (2019–29)\n## Customization of default settings and borrowing assumptions","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall conclusion of the Rwanda DSA?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA finds Rwanda’s public debt is sustainable, with a low risk of both external and overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"What areas does the DSA cover when assessing Rwanda’s debt?\",\"answer\":\"It covers the central government, government guarantees, and debt held by all state-owned enterprises.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the DSA model the COVID-19 impact?\",\"answer\":\"It introduces a customized stress test that shocks main macro variables in 2020, including a significantly larger export shock reflecting weaker tourism and goods exports under global demand shortfalls.\"}]","Rwanda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 | PDF",1784483291,18,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"rwanda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/rwanda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020/109975/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What is the overall conclusion of the Rwanda DSA?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"The DSA finds Rwanda’s public debt is sustainable, with a low risk of both external and overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"What areas does the DSA cover when assessing Rwanda’s debt?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"It covers the central government, government guarantees, and debt held by all state-owned enterprises.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"How does the DSA model the COVID-19 impact?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"It introduces a customized stress test that shocks main macro variables in 2020, including a significantly larger export shock reflecting weaker tourism and goods exports under global demand shortfalls.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,112,116,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":108,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":109,"show_sort_weight":110,"slug":111},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]