[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111551-en":3,"doc-seo-111551-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111551,1099514068035,"Ezra","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Rwanda - Joint World Bank Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk Assessment","The joint Bank-Fund debt sustainability analysis for Rwanda finds moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, with narrowed space to absorb shocks without breaching high-risk thresholds. Rwanda’s debt-carrying capacity remains classified as strong, supported by concessional IDA20/IDA21 borrowing and a rising domestic financing share. Baseline assumptions include additional external commercial financing linked to a major project, lifting PV external debt-to-GDP near its threshold and worsening near-term liquidity pressures.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) , and Catherine Pattillo and Tokhir Mirzoev (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| RWANDA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe updated Bank/Fund debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Rwanda continues to indicate a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, though space to absorb shocks without breaching high-risk thresholds has narrowed. The debt-carrying capacity classification remains ‘strong’.2 Rwanda’s financing strategy assumes continued support from official development partners over the medium term, with highly concessional loans for new external borrowing under IDA20 and IDA21, and an increasing share of domestic financing in the long term. At the same time, baseline assumptions include an additional US$800 million in external commercial financing compared to the previous DSA, related to a large priority project and raising baseline PV external debt-to-GDP closer to its threshold in the near-term. Debt indicators classify debt sustainability risks as moderate with limited space to absorb shocks, with near-term standard stress test breaches of the benchmark for PV public debt-to-GDP and the threshold for PV external debt-to-GDP highlighting vulnerability to external and climate shocks. Baseline external debt service-to-revenue rises over the medium-term, with stress tests breaches and spikes due to Eurobond payments highlighting mounting liquidity pressures and vulnerability to external financing conditions. The baseline relies on continued consolidation, underpinned by implementation of the authorities’ medium-term  \n1 This debt sustainability analysis was conducted using the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LICDSF) that was approved in 2017. The fiscal year for Rwanda is from July to June; however, this DSA is prepared on a calendar year basis.  \n2 Rwanda has a debt carrying capacity indicator score of 3.19. This implies a classification of strong debt carrying capacity, which is the same classification as under the previous DSA.  \nrevenue strategy. Heightened uncertainty around key external risks to concessional financing over the medium-term, underperformance risks to domestic resource mobilization, and sustained exchange rate pressures could intensify debt sustainability risks. The authorities are encouraged to progress on fiscal consolidation, reprioritize investment projects to mitigate external financing needs, and support the external adjustment with real effective exchange rate adjustment.  \n1. The DSA covers the central government, guarantees, and state-owned enterprises (Text Table 1). The Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) publishes annual debt data in a semi-annual statistical bulletin, covering domestic and external debt of the central government, broken down by multilateral, bilateral and commercial debt, as well as information on guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt held by all state-owned enterprises (SOEs) .3 Public guarantees are only extended to SOEs. There is no debt stemming from extra budgetary funds, long term central bank financing of the government, nor the state-owned social security fund. The local government debt is also covered but the existing stock to date is marginal,4 and its contracting is subject to approval by MINECOFIN. The contingent liabilities shock (6 .5 percent of GDP) accounts for potential fiscal costs associated with a theoretical banking crisis, and fiscal risks of existing public-private partnerships (PPPs) . All SOE guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt is included in the baseline.  \n|  |  S","cbCaipmM8B1y2F7D","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipmM8B1y2F7D","pdf",823383,1,28,"English","en",105,"# Risk Ratings\n## External Debt Distress\n## Overall Debt Distress\n# Financing and Baseline Assumptions\n## Concessional and Domestic Financing\n## Added Commercial Financing\n# Debt Indicators and Stress Tests\n## PV Debt-to-GDP Threshold Breaches\n## Liquidity Pressures and Eurobond Payments\n# Policy Guidance and Coverage\n## Fiscal Consolidation and Project Reprioritization\n## Scope of Debt and Contingent Liabilities","[{\"question\":\"What is Rwanda’s risk of external and overall debt distress according to this DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Both external debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are rated as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"Why has Rwanda’s baseline been assessed as more vulnerable in the near term?\",\"answer\":\"Additional assumed external commercial financing for a large priority project raises baseline PV external debt-to-GDP closer to its threshold, while stress tests indicate breaches tied to external and climate shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"What do the analysis recommendations urge the authorities to do?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA encourages progressing on fiscal consolidation, reprioritizing investment projects to mitigate external financing needs, and supporting external adjustment through real effective exchange rate adjustment.\"}]",1784490641,71,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"rwanda-joint-world-bank-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/rwanda-joint-world-bank-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment/111551/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Rwanda’s risk of external and overall debt distress according to this DSA?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Both external debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are rated as moderate.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why has Rwanda’s baseline been assessed as more vulnerable in the near term?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Additional assumed external commercial financing for a large priority project raises baseline PV external debt-to-GDP closer to its threshold, while stress tests indicate breaches tied to external and climate shocks.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What do the analysis recommendations urge the authorities to do?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The DSA encourages progressing on fiscal consolidation, reprioritizing investment projects to mitigate external financing needs, and supporting external adjustment through real effective exchange rate 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